DraftKings NFL Week 3 Declarations

It is time for DraftKings NFL Week 3 targets! As I always successfully predict, I am not a millionaire after last week, and I am 100% positive that will change because of my impregnable lineup for Week 3. Before I start looking for water front real estate to invest my DK winnings in, I have countless predictions, smoldering takes, and past transgressions to discuss so let’s get to it.

Core Three

Each week, I’ll be posting my core players here to be included in all my lineups. I tend to fade the highest priced players for mid-level guys who I believe have similar floor/upside combos with plus matchups. I will be posting my DK results weekly soon so you can see exactly how much I am losing to the penny!

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TE Broncos Jake Butt $2,700

Last year’s 5th round draft selection, and former Michigan Wolverine standout, Jake Butt is essentially in his rookie season after missing all of 2017 from a torn ACL suffered in Michigan’s bowl game. Before sustaining the injury, Butt was projected as high as a late 2nd/early 3rd round selection, profiling as an athletic 6’6″ tight end, with solid play making ability, that lined up all over the place in Michigan’s offense.

Through two games this season, he’s caught six balls (four that went for first downs) on nine targets, and is third on the team with 77 receiving yards, including this clutch grab on the game winning drive last week…

In Minnesota last season, Keenum developed a solid rapport with tight end Kyle Rudolph, when the veteran finished third on the team in targets (81), catches (57), and finished one touchdown off his career high with eight snags for pay dirt.

After just one week, Keenum already trusted Butt enough to look his way with the game on the line, and with Butt coming through, I think the connection will only get stronger as his rookie season progresses.

At this price, a five catch, 50 yard day returns value, and does wonders for your budget. Add on his first career touchdown, and that’s GPP gold. Add two TDs, and I’ll be tweeting this gif all day Sunday…

Damn it, that's twice. I want some butts!

TE 49ers George Kittle $4,500

I am just loving cheap tight ends who were 5th round draft selections out of the Big 10 this week for some reason. The former Iowa product was quiet in Week 2, after Jimmy G targeted him a whopping nine times in the 49ers opening week loss to Minnesota.

This week, matched up against a defense who has played like they would also rather watch Mahomes on offense like the rest of us, allowing Steeler tight end Jesse James to post a 5-138-1 line last week, makes for a better bounce back plan than Marty Byrde relocating to the Ozarks.

In the highest projected scoring game of the week, I like Kittle to find the end zone for the first time this season.

Andrew Mills | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

WR Odell Beckham Jr. $8,200

Normally, I do not suggest the top players in my targets because it’s like “really, you like OBJ too? How about Michael Thomas and Julio? I’ve heard they’re pretty good at football too…”. It’s kind of like writing a fantasy golf column, and constantly rotating the top 10 players in the world as your suggestions.

However, after two weeks into the season, I like to look around at players who project to score 8-10 touchdowns that haven’t found the end zone yet, as very reasonable law of averages plays. With guys like OBJ, eventually they’re just going to get theirs. It doesn’t matter what the matchup is, or how bad the offensive line play might be. Scoring touchdowns is part of this guy’s identity the way being original is for Will Hunting.

Fantasy football doesn’t have to be that deep. The huge plays and scores are coming for OBJ. Soon. I won’t be the one missing out.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

Week 3 ATS Picks

I was a ho-hum 2-2-1 a week ago to make it 5-4-1 on the season. Nothing special, but at least it’s winning which, thanks to Ebby Calvin LaLoosh, I now understand is better than losing…

Giants +6 @ Texans

Is there any team, outside the Bills or Cardinals, that this 0-2 Houston team should be laying six to at this point in the season? Sure, this could be the week Deshaun Watson turns it loose prompting the inevitable hot “Deshaun Watson is BACK” take reaction all next week.

But, I’ve matured a lot since last week when I got way too cute taking a Washington team minus six, who also has done nothing to suggest they’ve earned the right to give six points to anybody. I’m not in love with the G-men by any stretch, but in addition to the aforementioned OBJ, they have tons of weapons to keep any game close, and I believe they’ll get better in Pat Shurmur’s system as the season moves forward.

And yes, I’m trying to avoid thinking about a healthy Jadeveon Clowney, and J.J. Watt running after Eli all afternoon when making this pick. Too many points. Giants cover the six.

Vikings -16.5 Vs Bills

Yes, this is a ton of points, but so was the 14 or so that Arizona was getting last week before the Rams made them their second #MeToo victim of the season. Besides, look at these Vikings results from last season:

Week 3 Beat Tampa by 17
Week 8 Beat Cleveland by 17
Week 11 Beat Los Angeles by 17
Week 15 Beat Cincy by 27
Week 16 Beat Green Bay by 16

 

The point is, they consistently did what good teams are supposed to do–beat up on bad teams. All the best teams always have four to five wins over the season where they blow the opposition out; that’s what makes them the “best” teams. And, after a disappointing effort defensively last week against one-legged AR12, I think the guys on that side of the ball will be ready to flex their muscles on fresh fish rookie Josh Allen, who threw two picks and was sacked five times in his debut last week.

I’m not positive, but something tells me when Wyoming traveled to Utah St. in his college days, Allen did not exactly experience playing in hostile environments. Now, welcome to life on the road in the NFL. Your first stop: this ass clown and a preposterous viking horn that sounds every 40 seconds. Godspeed…

Vikings roll 31-13 with a defensive touchdown to boot.

Bears -5 @ Cardinals

I tried to warn Kyle last week about how bad one Samuel Jacob Bradford’s week 1 performance was in their home loss to Washington. But, similar to my reaction when my Dad starts talking politics, he just wouldn’t listen.

Fittingly, Captain Check Down, turned in a performance for the ages with a blazing 17-27, 90 yards, and one pick line that even made Eli Manning (feeling worse about that Giants pick every second) targeting Saquon Barkley 16 times on SNF look reckless.

Next up for Sammy and the Cards, a defense that just turned two of the best quarterbacks in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE inside out with the exception of one half of witchcraft from AR12, and followed my prophetic script almost to tee when the Bears defense sealed that game on MNF.

Beyond sticking with Bradford, there’s a decent chance rookie head coach Steve Wilks has no idea what he’s doing. Bradford’s poor play is one thing, but David Johnson averaging under four yards per carry, and a solid defense from one year ago, with multiple all-pros being toward the bottom of the league in every defensive category through two games is another.

I mean, is it unreasonable to wonder if a guy, who’s largest role before becoming head coach in Arizona was a one year stint as Panthers defensive coordinator–a position available only because Sean McDermott left the prior year to become the Bills head coach–might be a little in over his head at this point? As a Lions fan, I justifiably do it on the hour, every hour with Matt Patricia, and he spent six years in the same position under the greatest coach in the known galaxy so I’ll go with no, it’s not unreasonable. And, I’m not the only one, as others have been pointing out some strange schematic doings from Wilk’s defense through his first two games.

Listen, I’m fully aware that every casino, and bookie in the world will need Arizona here, and that they much more often than not get what they need. Also, I understand that the idea of needing something from Mitchy Trubisky on the road in a potentially close game in the second half isn’t where anybody wants to live. But, they proved last week that the SNF melt down to AR12 was behind them when they–this time–finished off a great quarterback like a great defense at home should. When we look back, that week one loss may have been the best thing that could’ve happened to them.

If it hadn’t, they’d be 2-0, and I might look at this much more as a typical letdown week situation. Instead, I see a defense that has been dominant against two elite quarterbacks, with just two weeks under their belts having Mack, and the perfect mix of weapons and creativity from Matt Nagy’s offense to keep Mitchy in manageable situations. As I stated on the AOP podcast, I think they’re just scratching the surface on both sides of the ball. I like them to drop a bomb on somebody soon. And by somebody, I mean Sam Bradford. Bears by double digits in the desert.

(Getty Images)

Patriots -6.5 @ Detroit SNF

Did I already mention potential disaster rookie head coaches through their first two games? The Detroit Lions followed up their opening Monday night massacre with another defensively lifeless effort that had them trailing 30-13 to start the fourth quarter against a very average team in San Francisco last week. Of course, Stat Padford did his thing, with a vintage “comeback” scoring two empty touchdowns just to skew the final score enough to make it look like a close game on paper.

It was not. This is a bad team, with an awful defense that turned another average running back into Walter Payton, allowing another 60 plus yard touchdown run. No offense to Matt Breida, but I doubt he ever had that long a run when he was on varsity scrimmaging the JV team, or even when he plays with the Niners in Madden after boosting his ratings.

Now, fresh off a rare double-digit loss, TB12 and the Pats are coming to town to rip the oxygen out of Ford Field Sunday Night.

It doesn’t take much googling to find all the “Patriots after a loss” stats, but just so we’re all the same page, this tweet sums it up nicely. In other words, don’t fuck with Brady and Belichick after a loss.

Last season, after the opening week bomb Kansas City dropped on them, the Pats traveled to the Saints as slight favorites, and the game was over by halftime, with the Pats leading 30-13. On top of all that, and Belicheat being 15-5 against his former assistants, the atmosphere in Detroit on Sunday night could turn toxic fast with another rough start from the Lions.

Detroit fans have typically always been loyal to a fault. Perhaps, in a delusional sense at times. It sort of comes with the mental territory of having one playoff win in roughly 60 years. However, something was different during that MNF bloodbath two weeks ago against the Jets. The fans turned, and turned quickly before anything got out of hand.

Even after an opening play pick-six that almost brought the house down, the Lions offense sputtered on their first few drives on offense. Instead of a quiet murmur, I started hearing boos in the first quarter coming out of my television, and thought “whoa, when did this place become Philly!”

Simply put, that’s a new one from this crowd. To be foaming at the mouth after a few missed third downs, AND a defensive touchdown in the first half of the first game of the season makes the mob in the Roman Coliseum seem fickle. If this thing starts the way the first two games have for Detroit, TB12 and friends aren’t taking their collective foot off the Lions neck, and being down 30-13 in the Bay area last Sunday will seem like a vacation compared to the fan reaction they’ll get.

Pats by a lot!

(IrishCentral.com)

Bucs +1.5 Vs Steelers MNF

On a brighter note, we all get to bear witness to a nationally televised magic show for the Monday nighter. I made the case last week that this Bucs wide receiver/tight end position group has the talent–when healthy–to sustain high level play week to week. Also. that Fitzmagic could very well have been the right signal caller all along.

Right on cue, Fitzpatrick put the Philly defense in his casket, then sawed them in half for his second trick of the season. Only, there may be nothing magical going on at all based recent examples.

It isn’t often, but this does happen. Remember that grocery store bagger Kurt Warner? Or, journeyman Rich Gannon winning an MVP at 37? How about Rodney Peete’s backup, Jake Delhomme making a Super Bowl run in 2003? Just last season, a career backup journeyman Case Keenum was more than adequate in leading the Vikings to the NFC title game. Bottom line, there’s plenty of historical precedent to suggest this team’s success, and especially the offense’s, is completely sustainable.

The next challenge will be to see how a group without any real track record of consistent success (see Washington week 2), responds to all the buzz of being the darlings of the NFL season through two weeks. It will be a huge test with a winless Pittsburgh team coming to town, who routinely wins games just like these simply by their noble rights as NFL royalty. That’s the point, and what make’s this game so fascinating.

Tampa isn’t supposed to be 3-0 after running the at New Orleans–home for the Super Bowl champs–Steelers on MNF gauntlet without their starting quarterback to open the season. Certainly, the perennial alleged Super Bowl contender Steelers aren’t going to be 0-2-1, right? Only time will tell, but I have a sneaking suspicion that, after another offensive clinic Monday night, they’ll be a lot less talk about magic, and a lot more talk about Tampa being for real. Bucs win 31-28.

Good luck in week 4! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and check and more ATS angles here from Kyle and Aaron.

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