NFL 6 Pack – Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Its that time again! It is time to make some Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread. Aaron is looking to stay hot and i’m looking to rebound.

For Aaron, last week’s picks turned a profit yet again, though not without some nail biting. His lock of the week was the Chargers over the Bills… which was, well, a lock. The Lions kept us all on the edge of our seat but managed to pull out the cover in the end. The Cardinals on the other hand are terrible. He said it in his write up, but he believed they would come to play at least a little in that game. They didn’t and I’ll be staying away from them for a while!

For me, it was a week to forget. The Steelers defense was a dumpster fire as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs put on a offensive display. I, like Aaron was on the Cardinals last week and well it was over before it even begun. I also liked Washington to pound the Colts. I’ll chalk that up to Andrew Luck getting some mojo back and the travel wearing them down.

Week 2 results:

Aaron: 2-1-0
Kyle: 0-3-0

On the season:

Aaron : 4-1-1
Kyle : 1-4-1

For week 3, we have an interesting slate of games to choose from. Follow Aaron and fade me if you want to win some more $$:

Aarons Picks:

Houston Texans -6 vs. New York Giants

A matchup of the two winless teams. One is way better than their record appears and one fits the mold. One team has a great pass rush, with 2 of the premier rushers in the league, and one has an atrocious offensive line. See where I’m going with this?

As an upstate NY’er, I want the Giants to be good. They have the talent in the skill positions to be good, but Eli can’t do anything behind that line. Saquon can’t even find a gap to explode through. This is not going to be a pretty game. Watson now has Fuller back and the offense improved in week 2. The loss to the Titans is uninspiring, but I think Houston breaks out this week and regains some of that 2017 shine they had going when Watson caught fire.

Pick: Texans -6

Oakland Raiders +3 @ Miami Dolphins

I see an underrated team in Oakland who is currently being bashed across America driving this line towards the 2-0 Dolphins. The Dolphins beat the Titans in a 7-hour game that you can basically chalk up as meaningless with how it played out, and they beat the Jets 20-12. The Jets are not good despite their week 1 performance against Detroit.

The Raiders had to play the Rams and the Broncos to open the season. Gruden found Carr’s sweet spot last week with shorter, check-down type passes and I expect that to continue. I also think this is going to lure the defense in and they get a deep ball or two to Bryant in his 2nd game back. I could see the Raiders winning this game by double-digits, so I’ll be keeping an eye on the alternate line to make some serious $.

Pick: Raiders +3

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles

Let me start by saying I would love this line to move to 7, so take your time on betting this one and monitor the line. Jay Ajayi might not play, Carson Wentz is coming back for his first start since tearing his ACL, and the Colts just beat a solid team in the Redskins.

While Wentz could light up the Colts in his return, but I don’t think it’s likely. I think America believes that he is going to come back and throw for 400 yards and 4 TD’s against a “weak” Colts secondary, but I believe a struggle is more likely for him.

I love Wentz and completely believe in his talent, but QB’s coming off ACL injuries typically take a couple of games to round into form. The Colts look better on both defense and offense (obviously) and I think they keep this game very close, if not win. Anytime I can get 6-7 points with a QB like Luck there I tend to lean towards that pick. Even if it’s just playing for the garbage time points like we did with Stafford and the Lions last week.

Pick: Colts +6.5

Antonio Brown

Charles LeClaire – USA TODAY Sports

Kyle’s Picks:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This line stinks out loud! The Pittsburgh Steelers are a mess that is playing without its all world RB in Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown missed work on Monday and the defense is in disarray. They are facing a surging Ryan Fitzpatrick and the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Normally, id be all over the home dog here but i’m going to back Big Ben and company in this spot. Maybe I’ll regret this pick and not sticking to my normal strategy but here we are. The Steelers September issues always give us the “this may be the year it all falls apart” storyline and maybe this is the year but I think they win this game, make the playoffs and are one the favorites to win the Super Bowl when we get into December and January.
Vegas has my back in this game despite getting 39% of the bets, the Steelers are getting 58% of the money.

Pick: Steelers -1

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

This is a play against the Saints defense improving and the injuries catching up with the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons come into this game without guard Andy Levitre who had been playing well and helped create rush lanes for Tevin Coleman. Levitre joins Devonta Freeman, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones who are already banged up and missing time.

The Saints did not look great a week ago but pulled out a win against the Cleveland Browns at home. I expect Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and company to perform well even on the road. I think their defense does enough to disrupt Matt Ryan to not only cover but get the outright win.
From a Vegas prospective, the Saints are getting 76% of the money despite only getting 46% of the bets. That helps me feel better about backing the Saints in this spot.

Pick: New Orleans +3

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks Under 41.5

I wanted to back the Cowboys in this spot and if forced to choose that would be my pick but I’m taking the under on 41.5. The Seahawks offense line is a serious problem. They have allowed 12 sacks through two weeks. The Cowboys are getting to the QB and currently have the second most sacks in the NFL with 9. I expect this meeting to be a huge problem for the Seattle offense.
For the Cowboys, their offense is far from explosive. They lean heavily on Ezekiel Elliott and want to control the ball.
I expect both sides to play well defensively and for the offense to work on long, methodical drives. Take the under and be ready to sweat it out!

Pick: Under 41.5

Good luck in Week 3!

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