It is time for DraftKings NFL Week 2 targets! As successfully predicted, I am not a millionaire after one week, and, like every week at this time, I am certain I will be after Week 2. Before that, I need to settle a debate. Or, possibly make an admission. I’m a big wrap guy. Yes, the food wrap; not rap music. For example, a southwest chicken wrap. I wasn’t aware this was an issue until I was berated when I ordered one at a bar recently on a family trip with Uncles and Cousins to a baseball game. It wasn’t so much the actual taste of the wrap that had everyone so offended by my choice, but more so, what I was foregoing, and ultimately what the wrap represented–weakness.
Dirt was eventually shoveled on my emasculated grave when even my Aunt Mary, whose eating habits have her one blue berry away from the starring role in Cast Away 2, scoffed at the idea of ordering a wrap, with a full menu of burgers and sandwiches in front of her. It was difficult having my manhood questioned for 37 straight hours, but I learned a valuable lesson…
I don’t give a fuck! If you have a problem with my need to maintain cleanliness, and not have pungent sauces all over my face and hands after every bite, that’s your issue.
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No man card? No problem! That’s right, I’m doubling down. I’m a wrap guy and proud of it! And, whether it’s learning to be yourself without fear of verbal abuse from family members, or trusting your instincts–like all great life lessons–they’re most effective when applied to fantasy sports and gambling. Which brings us to my theme for Week 2’s action–stay strong in your convictions. Let’s get to it…
Each week, I’ll be posting my core players here to be included in all my lineups. I tend to fade the highest priced players for mid-level guys who I believe have similar floor/upside combos with plus match-ups. I will be posting my DK results weekly soon so you can see exactly how much I am losing to the penny!
RB Panthers Christian McCaffrey $7,000
I was steadfast on McCaffrey last week, and while he wasn’t great; his involvement sans J-Stew suggests it’s only a matter of time before a monster game comes. Even in a 16-8 defensive struggle win over Dallas last week, he piled up 95 yards on 16 touches (10 rushes/6 catches/9 targets), and was instrumental in every facet of their scheme as a true three-down back.
This week, right after I put my mouth on Atlanta’s D (that didn’t come out right) last week, they’ve already lost their top two tacklers from last season in all-pro stud linebacker Deion Jones, and pro bowler strong safety Keanu Neal. Not only are they two of the Falcons top three defensive players, they’re at positions that are both directly responsible for slowing down McCaffrey when running, or as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
I’m sure Damontae Kazee is a fine young man, and that the warm bodies on the table to replace Jones come from splendid families that love them very much, but slowing down the Cam-McCaffrey option package in their first start as professionals is asking a lot. I think McCaffrey busts lose at least once for a home run Sunday.
Am I concerned about the two-headed TD vulture monster of C.J. Anderson, and someone named Alex Armah?…
RB Vikings Dalvin Cook $6,500
What I’m not worried about is Latavius Murray stealing this guy’s touches, or the Packers front seven against the run. Cook was on his way to a monster year before getting hurt last season in rushing, and especially, catching the ball as a rookie. Before tearing his ACL in the fourth game of the season, he was on pace for 50 catches, and over 400 yards receiving.
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Last week, Cook was right back to being heavily involved in the passing game, finishing second in catches (6), yards (55), and targets (7). Up next, he’ll get that charmin extra soft Pack front that allowed the Bears running backs over five yards per rush last week. Get him now at this price; it won’t last.
QB 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo $6,000
As discussed on the AOP podcast this week, they might all be hipster douches in the bay area, but Jimmy G and friends will be getting rid of all their recycling bins, and compost buckets to add to the steaming landfill that is the Lions defense. Sure, they’ll be better than last week purely on an effort scale, but there’s a difference between playing better than not being capable. In this case, the Lions front seven, no matter how well they play, just do not have the horses to hold up for an entire game. Now, with the only real pass rush threat, Ziggy Ansah, being banged up, and matched up against the 49ers best lineman, perennial pro bowl left tackle Joe Staley, the Niners offense looks like a very juicy, affordable stack. For ALL my Week 2 lineups, Jimmy G….
Week 2 ATS Picks
Last week, I salvaged a winning week at 3-2 thanks to the Redskins (and Sam Bradford really), and the Rams on Monday night.
Vikings PK @ Packers
Everything I wrote last week about the Packers being an inferior team to the Bears was going almost perfectly to script until AR12 flew out of the tunnel on his broomstick, and single-leggedly proved once and for all that he’s traded his soul to the devil for magical quarterback powers, and more importantly, the opportunity to go Munn–Patrick back to back. While that’s all wonderful, and unquestionably makes him an American hero, things aren’t getting any easier on the field this Sunday.
The Vikings come into to Green Bay as essentially a more experienced, better version of the Bears. Similar to the Lions, the Pack’s shaky offensive line, and aforementioned soft front seven, isn’t going to change in one week of practice–it’s a matter of personnel. What the Bears were able to do to disrupt Rodgers even before he was hurt last week, the Vikings will be able to do the same, and do it better. And, they won’t melt away a big second half lead.
Their defense is a loaded, veteran group that’s knows AR12 well, and, not to mention, is responsible for him missing most of last season. Even if Rodgers suits up, I don’t see a potion magical enough to pull this one off. The Vikings take the Packers house money back Sunday, and win going away.
Panthers +5.5 @ Falcons
It’s amazing what can happen in a week. One minute, you’re staunchly backing Atlanta to win the Super Bowl. The next, you’re shotgunning drano after watching Steve Sarkisian dial up a speed out to Devonta Freeman on 3rd and goal from the four yard line. Fast forward to this week, you go full turncoat on them. I still believe the Falcons are a playoff team, and could win Sunday, but the “hey, you two guys who’ve barely seen action, let alone, started an NFL game before… Yeah you… You’re assignments are Cam and McCaffrey” thing is too much for this week. Add to that Devonta Freeman also being ruled out now. Give me the Panthers with the points.
Redskins -6 Vs Colts
Now, unlike the Falcons, here’s where I’m continuing to stand up for what believe in–chicken wraps and line play. I was bullish last week on the upside of Washington’s defense when I picked them, and it proved out to be true through one game, albeit, against Sam Bradford. Still, their front, led by their last two first-rounders out of Alabama Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne, did a great job on David Johnson even early on when the game script called for more running, holding him to just over four yards per rush, and a long run of 11 yards.
Most importantly, they did what good teams are supposed to against inferior opponents–play with the lead a majority of the game, protect it, and leave no doubt when finishing them off. I already liked the makeup of their defense on paper, and it’s played out nicely on the field so far. On offense, their season long upside will always be tied to the health of Jordan Reed and AP, which isn’t ideal, but as long as they’re out there, Alex Smith has plenty of options to not just put up points, but be sneaky dangerous.
Admittedly, six points seems pretty high considering Andy Luck is pulling the trigger on the other side, and this Washington team doesn’t have much of a history to suggest they can sustain a high level of play week to week. However, no matter what you’re speculating on, it’s all about identifying undervalued assets before the market corrects itself. I liked the Skins on paper a lot in my preseason research, and loved what I saw out of them last week in Arizona. I don’t want to blow my hot take wad just yet, but if they turn in a double-digit win in impressive fashion again Sunday, there’s a strong likelihood we’ll be looking at six points a month from now and laughing. Give me Washington, and fries on the side of my wrap.
Bucs +3 Vs Eagles
What was that? More sneaky sleeper hot takes after Week 1 you ask? Coming right up! Hey, remember coming into last season when Tampa was the sexy sleeper, and all the “year three breakout for Jameis”, and “all those weapons on offense” smoldering takes that were being spewed everywhere? Yeah, well it didn’t quite go as planned with Winston, Mike Evans, and DeSean Jackson all being banged up throughout the season, and, what is possibly playing out before our eyes right now, this guy just isn’t good…
With another offseason under their belts in the same system, everyone fully healthy, and a more competent Fitzpatrick pulling the trigger, maybe we were all just a year off from the “Tampa has a potent offense” narrative. In terms of talent, their skill position players have as much upside and depth as anyone in the league. Seriously, just ask yourself. From a receivers, and tight ends perspective, would you rather have the Rams unit, or Tampa’s? Assuming health, it’s Tampa, and it’s not close.
Look, they’re never going to do what they did last week again, but with a healthy Evans and Jackson, year two progressions for Chris Godwin (who I love) and O.J. Howard, and very capable, complimentary pieces in Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate adding quality depth, there’s a strong case that this offense could be highly productive week to week with just Alex Smith level play at quarterback. I’m not putting them in the NFC title game, but I think they’re catching Philly at a good time in their home opener. I’ll take the points, and expect Fitzmagic to stay alive with a healthy group again this week.
Bears -3.5 Vs Seahawks SNF
Unlike Tampa, I wasn’t one year off with the Bears. To lose that game last week was a disappointment, but they were clearly the better team. They (players AND coaches) just need to learn to finish, especially when playing an evil witch without a soul. Yes, there’s a slight possibility AR12 cast a spell on them for which there is no antidote, and losing the way they did gets into their DNA effecting their second-half performances moving forward. Only time will tell for sure, but I’m going the other way.
Since last season, as Seattle’s defense eroded with age and injuries, and no running game in sight, everyone couldn’t slam shut their window fast enough. On Sunday night, we won’t any shock jock, TV host, or any other idiot with keyboard like me to hammer the nails in. Khalil Mack, and the new Legion of Boom will be happy to ceremoniously play host to the official changing of the guard. Bears by a touchdown. Now, let me eat my chicken wrap in peace.
Good luck for Week 2! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and check out my college football hot takes here, and more ATS coverage here from Kyle and Aaron. For FanDuel coverage, Justin Tarte has you covered.