DraftKings NFL Week 1 Declarations

Happy DraftKings NFL Week 1! I am so pumped to convince myself Monday through Friday for the next 17 weeks that I have the perfect plan to win one million dollars only to have it go up in flames faster than John Krasinski’s Jack Ryan Amazon show. I can’t put my finger on it, but it just makes me uncomfortable when I see him in those promos trying to be serious with a gun. I definitely felt more threatened when his wife is holding a weapon. Actually, I feel all lot of things when I see her.

Yup… Could for sure kick my ass. Oddly enough, I think I would enjoy it….

Now, onto my own steamy Jack Ryan DK plays this week…

Fantasy just got a whole lot better thanks to Monkey Knife Fight. With fast-paced games like Rapid Fire and Either/Or, it’s never been easier to play fantasy and win. New to MKF? Get Exclusive $100 Deposit Match + Free $5 Game >

DraftKings Core Four

Alright, enough season long BS that will all probably turn to shit in the first month. Let’s just win the million right now! Each week, I’ll be posting my core four players here to be included in all my lineups. I tend to fade the highest priced players for mid-level guys who I believe have similar floor/upside combos with plus match-ups. I will be posting my DK results weekly so you can see exactly how much I am losing to the penny! Let’s get to it…

  1. Leonard Fournette $7,100 — Great match-up, guaranteed volume, and floor/upside/price combo. I will gladly pivot off DJ, Kamara, and Zeke at a more budget friendly price.
  2. Saquon Barkley $6,700 — Ctrl v, ctrl c. And, yes–Jacksonville’s defense can get got by the run.
  3. Christian McCaffrey $6,400 — Ctrl v, ctrl c again!
  4. Chris Godwin $4,100 — I also discussed him on the AOP podcast. He had a great preseason, and received plenty of run with the starters while doing it. After Drew Brees and company are done sexing up the Bucs to a three score lead Sunday, there should be tons of garbage receiving stats for Godwin to feast on. I like last season’s third rounder out of Penn St. to have a big weak one on his way to being a nice season long sleeper as well.

Deep Sleeper: Ricky Seals-Jones $3,000 — The second year tight-end goes up against a Redskin defense that was tied for sixth in the league in average DK points allowed per game to tight-ends last season. And, Arizona is scheduled to have Captain Check Down himself slinging it on Sunday. IF Jermaine Gresham sits out, I think RSJ makes for a nice low percentage/sneaky upside guy that could do some damage in GPPs. Speaking of low cost TEs in that game–that Jordan Reed price tho…

Week 1 ATS Picks

I managed a 63% clip on the regular season last year using deductive reasoning combined with my hard-hitting statistical analysis accompanied by tiger like instincts plus prophetic intuition and most of all nonsensical run-on sentences. What about the playoffs you ask? Um.. Yea… About that…

Falcons -1 @ Eagles

Picking up right where I left off in the playoffs! As soon as I felt compelled to tweet this out, it was doomed. What a fucking joke that game was. Awful play calls. Terrible officiating. Keanu Neal getting hurt for the year. Regret. Despair. The NFL is BACK BABY!

Texans +6.5 @ Patriots

And, so is Deshaun Watson. And, so is an average at best Patriots defense who really didn’t do much personnel wise to improve it in the off-season. I’m not a doctor, so I’m going to work under the assumption that Watson is the same guy that was terrorizing every team he played before he was hurt. Too many points here for this Pats team to lay to this QB in week one.

Rams -4 @ Raiders MNF

Vegas tries to pull this trick on me all the time. Make a line low enough to the point where it actually gets in my head, scares me off the scent, and makes me forget about all the actual football reasons why the Raiders should lose by double digits. Fool me once–shame on you. Fool me 17,562 times–shame on me, and I just won’t be fooled more than 17,561 times. WILL. NOT. HAPPEN!

Redskins +1 @ Cardinals

I’ll tell you something that will happen though–Adrian Peterson revenge game! Sorry, I couldn’t help myself. Seriously though, the Skins have talent on defense with their last two first rounders out of Alabama, Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne leading the way up front. Where I really start to blush is when I think about what Preston Smith could do opposite Ryan Kerrigan on the outside in their 3-4 defense

The former second rounder is coming off his second full season as a starter where he collected eight sacks up from 4.5 the previous season. A breakout from Smith, with Zach Brown and Mason Foster manning the middle, and the big Bama fellas up front could turn this front that ranked dead last against the run in 2017, from a liability into a nasty group to deal with.

They’ll have a nice opportunity this weekend against David Johnson returning to his first regular season game action from last year’s season ending wrist injury behind an offensive line that hasn’t played together with a third round rookie at center, and very questionable free agents at right guard and right tackle. Yikes. Give me Small Hands and AP in the desert.

Bears +7.5 @ Packers SNF

Did I mention too many points in week one? The Packers have questions marks or just holes everywhere at linebacker, and in the secondary with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix being their only proven starter heading into the season. Aaron Rodgers will once again need to be super human to win anything that matters with this defense, and, at least for now, an unproven running game. But, it’s more of a pick for the Bears, than one against the Pack.

Chicago is doing their best Rams impression as Bears GM Ryan Pace is going ALL IN over the next three years while Trubisky remains cheap under his rookie contract. Even before acquiring Mack, he brought in RPO whisperer Matt Nagy as Head Coach to revamp the offense and develop Trubisky. To help him pull it off, they signed pass catchers Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton as free agents, and used a second round pick on a wide receiver from Memphis that I’ve never heard of. Doesn’t matter. The message is clear even before bringing in Mack.

Teams like the Bears, Rams, Chiefs, and the Eagles have their quarterbacks cheap on their rookie deals, and accordingly have used savings and draft capital to invest in the other parts of their teams, and it’s fucking go time! No five year window. Fuck your three year plan! It’s win now, and win often. It doesn’t mean it will work. It doesn’t guarantee any rings. But, it will definitely be intriguing to see how it all plays out, and massively entertaining to watch. And, almost assuredly impossible to gamble on.

Good luck in week 1! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock insults are appreciated! Check out more ATS coverage here from Kyle Robert and Aaron Marcotte.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *