Rankings Risk Reward Thursday Week 3

By John Bush

 Rankings Risk Reward Thursday Week 3 

I wished to give my take on the Thursday NJY vs CLE

Rankings Risk Reward Thursday Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

Previous Week 3 Articles 

snaps-per-minute-week-2-2018

targets-per-minute-week-2

ppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-3

non-ppr-rank-risk-rewards-week-3

————————————————————————————-

Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Slide1


slide212.jpg

————————————————————————————-

Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

Slide23

————————————————————————————-

Week 3 Risk Levels By Team 

This week CLE has 76% Risky Players vs

NYJ that has only 57% of its Players at High or Mid Risk. 

Slide1

Slide2

——————————————————————–

 Thursday NYJ vs CLE 

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 39 points) 

  • CLE 23  vs  NYJ 16 from Vegas. CLE the favorite. 

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • CLE  has to face an overall Above Average Easy Defense from NYJ Defense

  • NYJ contends with an overall Easy Defense from the CLE Defense

  • This week CLE has 76% Risky Players vs NYJ that has only 57% of its Players at High or Mid Risk. That makes this game closer than thought but still low scoring! 

——————————————————————–

CLE vs NYJ

CLE vs NYJ TH Night


CLE

Taylor faces into an easy NYJ Defense ranked at 44 and a 14 QB DAP. Taylor should score 3X with 1 maybe from him rushing into the red zone. 

The CLE WRs minus Gordon will be in flux to find a pecking order vs an easy 41 WR DAP. Landry is the clear 1 WR and is a low risk 85. Cash game DFS is an ok play. The water is murky below him. I ranked Callaway high risk 43 and Higgins a high risk 20. I see 2X scores from this crew. Landry gets one. Callaway should get the other one that could make him a gamble DFS play. .

The talented Njoku is a high-risk 62 vs a 46 TE DAP. He has not been used by Taylor and that needs to change. He may score but is a DFS fade.

The RBs have been quiet lately as well under Taylor. They face a 52 RB DAP. Hyde is the RB 1 ranked a mid-risk 76. He can score but is a DFS tournament gamble. Duke has not been himself under Taylor and is ranked a high risk 43. Chubb is low risk 10. DFS fades on the other two RBs. 

The kicker is a pass but the CLE Defense is good play. 

Slide43

——————————————————————-

CLE vs NYJ TH Night


NYJ

Darnold continues his progress and gets an easy defense from the CLE team (based on 2017 data though). He faces a 19 QB DAP and can collect 3X scores. The NYJ can upset CLE in this game and it seems to be a closer game than thought from Vegas. 

The NYJ WRs have been the Enunwa show and I rank him a low-risk 72 vs a tough 72 WR DAP. He can score PPR points and a touchdown. DFS tournament play only. Anderson is a long shot hit or miss under Darnold. He is a mid-risk 48 and Pryor is a low risk 21. DFS fade on the other two WRs.

If the NYJ still had ASJ they would be favored in this game as CLE yields a 0 TE DAP. But they have no TE Game. Maybe the TE1 shows up tonight. 

Finally, the NYJ RBs are the key to the upset! They must produce to balance the tough WR DAP from CLE. CLE gives a 47 RB DAP and this is a situation that should get one or both RBs to score. I have Crowell at mid-risk 62 and Powell a high risk 62. Both are steep gambles in DFS. I expect a score from Crowell and PPR points for Powell. Powell has more upside and might be a better DFS gamble. 

The Kicker and Defense are usable tonight! 

Slide59

——————————————————————–

 

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: