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RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

By John Bush

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

As we travel into the last part of the preseason, I wanted to remind my readers of last year positional performances and consistency as compared to current ADP. Running Backs can be the most fragile of the positions but the best deliver weekly.

Below is the link to the QB article in this series

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP


Questions to consider:

  • Which Players had excellent 2017 metrics yet are not highly ranked by 2018 ADP?
  • Which Players had weaker 2017 metrics yet are more highly ranked by 2018 ADP?

First Tier RBs by %TT

The RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP metrics I wish to cover in this article related to the QB position. (See table below)

  • Weeks a Player was in the Top Ten of that Position
  • Games Played (More Games Increases Data Points and Certainty)
  • % of Played Games the Player was in the Weekly Top Ten in Position
  • PPR Fantasy Points Per Game

I sorted the players by %Top Ten (%TT) Games They Delivered in 2017. The top players in 2017 were Bell and Gurley tied at 80% in the top ten games of the season. Next tier was Kamara, Cook, and Gordon at 50% %TT. These RBs are followed by Hunt, Ingram, Elliot, and McCoy. Note the next group had surprises. Bibbs, McCaffrey, Fournette, Thompson, and Freeman. (Bibbs play 3 games and 1 was in the TT!). Given the needs of WAS, Bibbs could be paired with Thompson. WAS could have a stronger Rushing attach than thought in 2018.

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide1


This visual plot highlights these top players from the above table by weeks TT, %TT Games and Actual Games played.

Note the weakness in the amount of data for Cook, Bibbs, and Montgomery. They did well but in a few games. Uncertainty must be higher for those players in 2018.

Bell and Gurley on paper seem the most certain for consistent FP production in 2018.

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide2


 Second Tier RBs by %TT

Next up in the table below are the second level of RBs based on % TT games they produced. All these had 21% TT games or lower. In this level, I like to focus on PPR/G as well as consistency metrics (%TT).

Burkhead was at 13FP/G. Lewis at 12.3FP/G Howard at 12.5, Miller at 12.1, and Coleman at 11.2 FP/G. These were the RBs in this Tier that had nice production as well. Key draft targets.

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide3


This visual plot highlights these 2nd Tier top players from the above table by weeks TT, %TT Games, and Actual Games played.

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The next tiers of RBs (3rd to 7th) have tabular data only. Stars are noting players within the Tier that have solid FP/G metrics

Third Tier RBs by %TT

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Fourth Tier RBs by %TT

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Fifth Tier RBs by %TT

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Sixth Tier RBs by %TT

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Seventh Tier RBs by %TT

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2017 RB Metrics vs 2018 ADP

I add to the metrics table the list of 2018 ADP vs the 2017 data. Note David Johnson was out in 2017 and has 1 game of data and -60 DIFF. I note by the DIFF metric the players that are the extremes between the 2017 data and 2018 ADP.

Keys to think about are subtle one such as Elliot. He was 8th in % 2017 TT but is 4th ADP (-4 Diff). The public has higher expectations than his last year’s production. Note Cook who is the opposite. He was 4th in 2017 %TT but only 10th in ADP. Public predicted a lower 2018 level. (Key sleeper he can repeat 2017 per game).

DIFF data metric points to these types of distinctions.

Mixon at -31, Howard at -11, McKinnon at -12, Henry at -18, Ajayi at -45 and Cohen at -45. These are all RBs who the public is counting on for a better season. Source of underlays?

Cook at +6, McCoy at +6, Ingram at +16, Burkhead at +6, and Johnson at +19. Source of overlays!

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide11


A visual plot of the main RBs DIFF numbers with 2018 ADPs and 2017 %TT metrics.

A landscape view of the data looking at RBs that did Worse vs Better (%TT vs ADPs). The Yellow/Grey bars that are positive are the potential overlays in the QBs vs the negative DIFFs are the underlays in RBs! This data visualize the player discussion shown above in call-outs of players

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The next groups of RBs with tabular DIFF metrics and a visual annotation of who might be overlay vs underlay materials.

DIFF numbers here in table and stars in the visual landscape annotate players for extra considerations

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Consistency vs Max and Min Weekly Efforts.

The tables below show the week 1 to 17 in 2017 and the FP scored by that player. I highlighted in yellow that top ten scores for that week. Note the string of TT vs non-TT.

For example, Bell and Gurley had a great stretch from W3 to 14! They only had 5 weeks below a TT finish! Find the RBs with good potential in 2018.

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP Slide17

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Max vs Min Metrics vs MAX/DIFF.

I calculated the 2017 Best and Worst Weeks for FP/G of each QB (MAX vs MIN) as well as FP Differences between those player extremes. I then normalized the MAX data by division using the DIFF number. That allows comparisons across all players

Note in the Top Tier RBs we have Bell at 1.50, Cook at 1.43, Bibbs at 1.70, McCaffrey at 1.44, and Fournette at 1.27. All had high floors in 2017!

Slide24


The plot of the MAX/DIFF metrics highlighting potential 2018 RB FP Floors.

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Burhead at 1.26

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Mixon at 1.25 and Abdullah at 1.22

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Gore at 1.26

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Carson at 3.67

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Ajayi at 1.42

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Davis 1.72, Turbin at 1.57, Ridley at 1.25, and Ward at 1.65

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