TE 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

John Bush
August 29, 2018

By John Bush

TE 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

As we travel into the last part of the preseason, I wanted to remind my readers of last year positional performances and consistency as compared to current ADP.

Links to the previous articles in this series

QB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

RB 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP

Questions to consider:

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Which Players had excellent 2017 metrics yet are not highly ranked by 2018 ADP?
Which Players had weaker 2017 metrics yet are more highly ranked by 2018 ADP?

First Tier TEs by %TT

The TE 2017 Consistency vs 2018 ADP metrics I wish to cover in this article related to the TE position. (See table below)

Weeks a Player was in the Top Ten of that Position
Games Played (More Games Increases Data Points and Certainty)
% of Played Games the Player was in the Weekly Top Ten in Position
PPR Fantasy Points Per Game

I sorted the players by %Top Ten (%TT) Games They Delivered in 2017. The top players in 2017 were Ertz, Kelce, and Gronk who were all above 64% of %TT games. Note the drop into the 40% starting at 7th TE and into the 30% at the 10th TE.

Thus my “barbell” approach. Draft early 1 to 3 ish or wait all day! Note Doyle at 11.3 FP/G but many around him are at 8 or high FP/G.

This visual plot highlights these top players from the above table by weeks TT, %TT Games and Actual Games played. The ratings seem steady as most of the top TEs played 13 games or more in 2017. Note Seal-Jones only played 8 games and more uncertainty would exist with him for 2018.

Second Tier TEs by %TT

At this point, the PPR/G metric might be more important.

This visual plot highlights these 2nd Tier top players from the above table by weeks TT, %TT Games, and Actual Games played.

Reed did have nice FP/G, but his visual profile hits his low games played due to injury. Kroft and Kittle seem to be the better “safe” choices for 2nd TEs.

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Third Tier TEs by %TT

“Break Glass in case of emergency” players only here. Only is a deep TE bonus league would any of these come into play in a stream situation.

2017 TE Metrics vs 2018 ADP

Top Tier TEs from 2017 Data

I add to the metrics table the list of 2018 ADP vs the 2017 data. I note by the DIFF metric the players that are the extremes between the 2017 data and 2018 ADP. The Star Shapes also annotate the Positive Diffs (green stars) and the negative Diffs (red stars).

Keys to think about are subtle one such as Cameron Brate. He was 7th in % 2017 TT but is 17th ADP (+10 Diff). The public has very expectations vs his last year’s production.

Note Jordan Reed who is the opposite. He was 27th in 2017 %TT but only 10th in ADP. Public predicted a much higher 2018 level. Thus, Brate might be more valuable (sleeper) vs Reed (anti-sleeper)

DIFF data metric points to these types of distinctions.

Reed and Kittle are the main 2 TEs who the public is counting on for a better season. Source of underlays?

FYI, some TEs with plus DIFFs are Cook at +8, Davis at +18, Watson at +7, Clay at +7, and Kroft at +18. Source of overlays?

A visual plot of the main TEs DIFF numbers with 2018 ADPs and 2017 %TT metrics.

A landscape view of the data looking at TEs that did Worse vs Better (%TT vs ADPs). The Yellow bars that are positive are the potential overlays in the TE s vs the negative DIFFs are the underlays in TEs! This data visualize the player discussion shown above in call-outs of players.

Next TEs at Second Tier by 2017 Data.

Olsen obviously should be above but his -24 is concerning. Be cautious.

Look for positive Diff for overlays and negative Diff TEs for underlays. Red vs Green Stars.

Only 4 TEs mainly positive. Shaheen, Gates, Heuerman, and Lewis.

Consistency vs Max and Min Weekly Efforts.

The tables below show the week 1 to 17 in 2017 and the FP scored by that player. I highlighted in yellow that top ten scores for that week. Note the string of TT vs non-TT.

For example, Ertz was tops as he had only 3 non-TT games. Kelce had 5, Gronk 4, Graham 6, Engram at 6, Walker at 8, Brate at 9, Rudolph at 9, Doyle at 9, Cook at 10 etc.

Your expectations for TEs must be changed. For the top 2017 Ten TEs, they had 3 to 10 non-TT games. Wow! The median is 7 non-TT games. That is 40% poor games for your average expectation per week.

Max vs Min Metrics vs MAX/DIFF.

I calculated the 2017 Best and Worst Weeks for FP/G of each TE (MAX vs MIN) as well as FP Differences between those player extremes. I then normalized the MAX data by division using the DIFF number. That allows comparisons across all players

Note in the Top Tier TEs we have Walker at 1.4 and Clay at 1.24. All had high floors in 2017! Interesting to compare TEs to RBs as there were higher floor RBs vs TEs in 2017.