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Fantasy Football: QB Rankings and Tiers

Aaron Rodgers

The 2018 Fantasy Football season is mere weeks away and fantasy drafts are happening all the time. I personally drafted four teams over the weekend. But you’re not here for my ramblings. You want some QB rankings. These rankings include tiers, which I find very valuable.

Tiers provide drafters the fore site to know when to jump in on a player or wait for a similar option at a reduced cost. If you disagree with my rankings or think a player deserves to move up or down a tier, feel free to adjust them. My rankings should provide a jumping off point for you.

 

Risers

Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs moved on from Alex Smith this off-season and with reason. It is time for the Patrick Mahomes show to take center stage. Not only are Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt still in the picture but Sammy Watkins was added to the mix.

This offense has the potential to be among the most compelling to watch on a week to week basis. All of Mahomes weapons are coveted fantasy weapons for good reason. I expect Mahomes to be in the top ten to twelve discussion with the ability to challenge for a top 5 slot.

Mitch Trubisky

Mitch Trubisky should take strides this season, especially if we expect Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Anthony Miller and others to live up to their ADP. The hiring of Matt Nagy should bring the Bears offense out the stone-age. I’m not saying Trubisky will challenge for the top QB spot but as a solid QB2 with upside, he is a great option.

Fallers

Carson Wentz

For me, Carson Wentz is lower that the consensus rankers. While I do not question the talent, there are some reasons for pessimism. As of now, he is not guaranteed to start Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons. If you draft Wentz, you will either need to be ready to stream in Week 1 or draft a second QB. These are two things I really do not want to do.

I am also concerned with his above average touchdown rate from a season ago. 7.5% of Wentz’s throws from a season ago ended with a touchdown. The average QB is around 4.5% and the top tier are in the 5% range. Even if Wentz dips just 2.5% to 5% his TDs would go from 33 to 22. That forces me to pump the brakes on Wentz.

Deshaun Watson

If we want to talk TD regression, the Texans Deshaun Watson is another player who should come back to earth. He had a TD rate of 9.3% on 220 attempts last season. A number that is basically double the league average. He is also a QB that played in 7 games last season.

While I think Watson is a talented QB, I expect some regression to come in the TD department.

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