2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses

By John Bush
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Updated: August 22, 2018

FYI Bush and Cherney’s Fantasy Football Text

has been updated on Kindle (8/3/18)

Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition

By John Bush

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses

This article is based on my novel method of using current IDP player ADPs as a guide to predict 2018 defenses. This method is different from using the 2017 points against data. All teams change year to year and thus players can retire, be free agents and move to other teams and rookies can be drafted. Therefore, the 2017 defense data is/can be stale.

Instead of doing this research in Jan, testing it and writing about it in my textbook 2019 edition, I decided to present it now.

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I used numerical methods to assign player defense value and determined their effect on the run or pass defense for a team. These numbers were calculated, averaged and assigned a class annotation of either Weak, Avg or Strong Defense to Run or Pass. The overall team defense numbers were also calculated to yield a final metric and annotation of Weak, Avg or Strong.

These figures were made last week and have not been tested. I present them as a guide to both a 2018 TEAM defense run or pass strength and Strength of Schedule in the Run or Pass segments of the game.

Once the 2018 data has become robust enough those numbers can be used in place of these. You might use a combination of 2017 and these data as well early this season. I will be testing next offseason to estimate the usefulness of my method!

Overall 2018 Predicted Defense Against the Run and Pass and Overall Strength.

Each team’s predicted Run/Pass Defense, Overall defense, and the simple class annotations are shown in Figure 1.

NYG are the number one overall strong defense followed by HOU, MIN, OAK, MIA, and LAR

DEN is predicted to be weak as is KC, WAS, IND, CLE, CIN, and PHI.

Some pundits suggest strong defenses favor running while weak defense favors the pass. Use in your draft boards for tiebreaking between similarly ranked players.

2018 Run Defense Scaled to League Average

The STRONG Run Defenses are HOU, DAL, LAC, OAK, LAR, NE MIN, and SEA. The waterfall group presents a visual landscape of the Team Run Defenses from Strong to Weak. Running Backs going against these teams are predicted to have tough games and lower FP production.

The WEAK Team Run Defenses are predicted to be KC, DEN, WAS, BAL, ATL, and BUF. Running Backs going against these teams are predicted to have easy games and higher FP production.

Note use these data for early season DFS as well to focus on key players.

2018 Passing Defense Scaled to League Average

The STRONG Pass Defenses are NYG, ATL, MIA, BAL, GB, MIN, BUF, TEN, NYJ and HOU. The waterfall group presents a visual landscape of the Team Pass Defenses from Strong to Weak. Pass Catchers going against these teams are predicted to have tough games and lower FP production.

The WEAK Team Pass Defenses are predicted to be IND, CIN, DEN, DAL, CLE, PHI, WAS, and KC. Pass catchers going against these teams are predicted to have easy games and higher FP production.

Note use these data for early season DFS as well to focus on key players.

Team Level Defense Landscapes Run, Pass, and Overall Analysis

I present the tabular form of the data followed by a graphical visual season landscape.

The table uses color coding to “see” the hot spots etc. Playoffs are weeks 14 to 16 and can be judged by these metrics in your current drafts. Good tiebreaker data.

OPP Team is the team’s opponent of that week. Note the overall opponent’s rating is color-coded weak (green), avg (yellow) and strong (red).
RUN is the numerical score the opponent’s IDP ADP run defense. Green to Red (weak to strong)
PASS is the numerical score the opponent’s IDP ADP pass defense. Green to Red (weak to strong)
RUN D and PASS D are the class level the opponent’s defense occupies in either the run or passing game.
OVERALL and OVERALL D. These are the number and class an opponent’s defense is rated this season.

ARI

Graphical Landscape of Team’s Run vs Pass Strength of Schedule.

The bye week is shown by a 0,0-plot point and each weeks’ opponent’s defense’s Run vs Pass level. Given the league average is 90 on the Y-axis. Any bars or line above 90 should be considered harder than average that week vs the opposite situation.

In the ARI landscape weeks, 11 and 12 are predicted to be the toughest for the run vs weeks 1 and 10 being the weakest.

In passing the toughest weeks are week 6, 13, and 15. The easy pass defense weeks are week 1 and 7

ARI Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H

ATL

ATL Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 4E PASS 1E 3H

BAL

BAL Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H

BUF

BUF Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 1E 3H

CAR

CAR Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 2E 2H

CHI

CHI Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 1E 3H

CIN

CIN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 3E 1H

CLE

CLE Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H

DAL

DAL Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H

DEN

DEN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H

DET

DET Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H

GB

GB Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H

HOU

HOU Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H

IND

IND Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 4H PASS 1E 3H

JAX

JAX Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 2E 2H

KC

KC Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 1H PASS 1E 3H

LAC

LAC Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 2E 2H

LAR

LAR Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 1E 3H

MIA

MIA Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H

MIN

MIN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H

NE

NE Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 4H

NO

NO Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 2E 2H

NYG

NYG Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 2E 2H

NYJ

NYJ Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H

OAK

OAK Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H

PHI

PHI Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 2E 2H

PIT

PIT Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H

SEA

SEA Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H

SF

SF Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H

TB

TB Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H

TEN

TEN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H

WAS

WAS Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H

Focused Playoff Weeks Analysis

I now focus on the playoff landscape and present weeks 13 to 16 Run vs Pass Team Opponent Defenses. The table below lists these weeks by Run and then by Pass opponent defense strength.

I have color coded the Team Names to reflect the SOS of the playoff weeks. Green, Yellow and Red annotation to mark Weak, Avg and Strong opponent defenses on the whole during these weeks (Run vs Pass defense).

I also have listed the weeks with the opponent’s numerical score of their Run or Pass defense as well as color-coded highlights of Green, Yellow, and Red. These tabular data allow focus on the two segments of team offense.

For Example:

ATL the RBs will be featured in weeks 13 to 16 and should do well.
The pass catchers will, on the other hand, have a tough schedule and will struggle to produce as much as usual.

Use this table to mark draft sheets and inspire a deeper thinking for player selection.

SOS Playoff Weeks by Team Run vs Pass Level of Difficulty

I took the above table and sorted the teams by easy vs strong defense in the Run or Pass during the playoff weeks.

Rushing SOS

Teams with an easy SOS in the Run are:

Teams with a hard SOS in the Run are:

Pass Catching

Teams with an easy SOS in Pass Catching are:

Teams with a hard SOS in Pass Catching are:

KEY Thought

** Note in previous years some pundits have noted the playoff weeks can feature different success emphasis than the previous weeks. In other words, the pass may have got a player to the playoffs, but the run game wins the league championship or maybe the opposite.

Therefore if this data is close to accurate, these playoffs will be focused on which fantasy teams that have the rushers to take advantage of the easy schedule relative the pass SOS. The pass catchers that got your fantasy team to the playoffs might be below average and may not win you the championship. Let’s call it the week 16 Gurley Effect from last year’s playoffs!