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2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses

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has been updated on Kindle (8/3/18)

 

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Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition


By John Bush

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses

This article is based on my novel method of using current IDP player ADPs as a guide to predict 2018 defenses. This method is different from using the 2017 points against data. All teams change year to year and thus players can retire, be free agents and move to other teams and rookies can be drafted. Therefore, the 2017 defense data is/can be stale.

Instead of doing this research in Jan, testing it and writing about it in my textbook 2019 edition, I decided to present it now.

I used numerical methods to assign player defense value and determined their effect on the run or pass defense for a team. These numbers were calculated, averaged and assigned a class annotation of either Weak, Avg or Strong Defense to Run or Pass. The overall team defense numbers were also calculated to yield a final metric and annotation of Weak, Avg or Strong.

These figures were made last week and have not been tested. I present them as a guide to both a 2018 TEAM defense run or pass strength and Strength of Schedule in the Run or Pass segments of the game.

Once the 2018 data has become robust enough those numbers can be used in place of these. You might use a combination of 2017 and these data as well early this season. I will be testing next offseason to estimate the usefulness of my method!


Overall 2018 Predicted Defense Against the Run and Pass and Overall Strength.

Each team’s predicted Run/Pass Defense, Overall defense, and the simple class annotations are shown in Figure 1.

NYG are the number one overall strong defense followed by HOU, MIN, OAK, MIA, and LAR

DEN is predicted to be weak as is KC, WAS, IND, CLE, CIN, and PHI.

Some pundits suggest strong defenses favor running while weak defense favors the pass. Use in your draft boards for tiebreaking between similarly ranked players.

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2018 Run Defense Scaled to League Average

The STRONG Run Defenses are HOU, DAL, LAC, OAK, LAR, NE MIN, and SEA. The waterfall group presents a visual landscape of the Team Run Defenses from Strong to Weak. Running Backs going against these teams are predicted to have tough games and lower FP production.

The WEAK Team Run Defenses are predicted to be KC, DEN, WAS, BAL, ATL, and BUF. Running Backs going against these teams are predicted to have easy games and higher FP production.

Note use these data for early season DFS as well to focus on key players.

Slide2


2018 Passing Defense Scaled to League Average

The STRONG Pass Defenses are NYG, ATL, MIA, BAL, GB, MIN, BUF, TEN, NYJ and HOU. The waterfall group presents a visual landscape of the Team Pass Defenses from Strong to Weak. Pass Catchers going against these teams are predicted to have tough games and lower FP production.

The WEAK Team Pass Defenses are predicted to be IND, CIN, DEN, DAL, CLE, PHI, WAS, and KC. Pass catchers going against these teams are predicted to have easy games and higher FP production.

Note use these data for early season DFS as well to focus on key players.

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide3


Team Level Defense Landscapes Run, Pass, and Overall Analysis

I present the tabular form of the data followed by a graphical visual season landscape.

The table uses color coding to “see” the hot spots etc. Playoffs are weeks 14 to 16 and can be judged by these metrics in your current drafts. Good tiebreaker data.

  • OPP Team is the team’s opponent of that week. Note the overall opponent’s rating is color-coded weak (green), avg (yellow) and strong (red).
  • RUN is the numerical score the opponent’s IDP ADP run defense. Green to Red (weak to strong)
  • PASS is the numerical score the opponent’s IDP ADP pass defense. Green to Red (weak to strong)
  • RUN D and PASS D are the class level the opponent’s defense occupies in either the run or passing game.
  • OVERALL and OVERALL D. These are the number and class an opponent’s defense is rated this season.

ARI

Slide5


Graphical Landscape of Team’s Run vs Pass Strength of Schedule.

The bye week is shown by a 0,0-plot point and each weeks’ opponent’s defense’s Run vs Pass level. Given the league average is 90 on the Y-axis. Any bars or line above 90 should be considered harder than average that week vs the opposite situation.

In the ARI landscape weeks, 11 and 12 are predicted to be the toughest for the run vs weeks 1 and 10 being the weakest.

In passing the toughest weeks are week 6, 13, and 15. The easy pass defense weeks are week 1 and 7

Slide6

ARI Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H


ATL

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide7

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide8

ATL Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 4E PASS 1E 3H


BAL

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide9

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide10

BAL Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H


BUF

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide11

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide12

BUF Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 1E 3H


CAR

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide13

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide14

CAR Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 2E 2H


CHI

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide15

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide16

CHI Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 1E 3H


CIN

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide17

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide18

CIN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 3E 1H


CLE

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide19

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide20

CLE Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H


DAL

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide21

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide22

DAL Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H


DEN

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide23

2018 IDP ADP Based Team Defenses Slide24

DEN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H


DET

Slide25

Slide26

DET Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H


GB

Slide27

Slide28

GB Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H


HOU

Slide29

Slide30

HOU Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H


IND

Slide31

Slide32

IND Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 4H PASS 1E 3H


JAX

Slide33

Slide34

JAX Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 2E 2H


KC

Slide35

Slide36

KC Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 1H PASS 1E 3H


LAC

Slide37

Slide38

LAC Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 2E 2H


LAR

Slide39

Slide40

LAR Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 1E 3H


MIA

Slide41

Slide42

MIA Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H


MIN

Slide43

Slide44

MIN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H


NE

Slide45

Slide46

NE Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 4H


NO

Slide47

Slide48

NO Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 2E 2H


NYG

Slide49

Slide50

NYG Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 2E 2H


NYJ

Slide51

Slide52

NYJ Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 4H


OAK

Slide53

Slide54

OAK Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H


PHI

Slide55

Slide56

PHI Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 2E 2H


PIT

Slide57

Slide58

PIT Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H


SEA

Slide59

Slide60

SEA Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H


SF

Slide61

Slide62

SF Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H


TB

Slide63

Slide64

TB Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 3E 1H PASS 3E 1H


TEN

Slide65

Slide66

TEN Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 2E 2H PASS 3E 1H


WAS

Slide67

Slide68

WAS Weeks 13 to 16 Playoffs

(E = Easy H=Hard)

RUN 1E 3H PASS 1E 3H


Focused Playoff Weeks Analysis

I now focus on the playoff landscape and present weeks 13 to 16 Run vs Pass Team Opponent Defenses. The table below lists these weeks by Run and then by Pass opponent defense strength.

I have color coded the Team Names to reflect the SOS of the playoff weeks. Green, Yellow and Red annotation to mark Weak, Avg and Strong opponent defenses on the whole during these weeks (Run vs Pass defense).

I also have listed the weeks with the opponent’s numerical score of their Run or Pass defense as well as color-coded highlights of Green, Yellow, and Red. These tabular data allow focus on the two segments of team offense.

For Example:

  • ATL the RBs will be featured in weeks 13 to 16 and should do well.
  • The pass catchers will, on the other hand, have a tough schedule and will struggle to produce as much as usual.

Use this table to mark draft sheets and inspire a deeper thinking for player selection.

Slide1


SOS Playoff Weeks by Team Run vs Pass Level of Difficulty

I took the above table and sorted the teams by easy vs strong defense in the Run or Pass during the playoff weeks.

Rushing SOS

Teams with an easy SOS in the Run are:

  • ATL
  • GB
  • LAC
  • NE
  • NYJ
  • OAK
  • TB

Teams with a hard SOS in the Run are:

  • WAS
  • SF
  • SEA
  • PIT
  • PHI
  • NYG
  • MIN
  • KC
  • IND
  • DEN
  • CIN
  • CHI

Pass Catching

Teams with an easy SOS in Pass Catching are:

  • CIN
  • CLE
  • DAL
  • HOU
  • OAK
  • PIT
  • TB

Teams with a hard SOS in Pass Catching are:

  • WAS
  • SF
  • TEN
  • SEA
  • NYJ
  • NE
  • MIN
  • MIA
  • LAR
  • KC
  • IND
  • GB
  • DET
  • CHI
  • ATL
  • ARI

KEY Thought

** Note in previous years some pundits have noted the playoff weeks can feature different success emphasis than the previous weeks. In other words, the pass may have got a player to the playoffs, but the run game wins the league championship or maybe the opposite.

Therefore if this data is close to accurate, these playoffs will be focused on which fantasy teams that have the rushers to take advantage of the easy schedule relative the pass SOS. The pass catchers that got your fantasy team to the playoffs might be below average and may not win you the championship. Let’s call it the week 16 Gurley Effect from last year’s playoffs!

Slide2


Simple Overall Playoff Metric by Team vs RUN or PASS SOS.

I assigned a number from 1 to 3 to match the predicted overall RUN vs PASS SOS in the playoffs to add clarity for your view.

1 is Easy, 2 Average and 3 Tough SOS.

This table is sorted by simple addition from OAK and TB at 2 vs. Was and SF etc. with 6. Use a simple marker of playoff SOS.

Slide3


Simple Visual of Weeks 13 to 16 Predicted SOS

This visual Stacked Bar Graph is shown to focus on the league landscape of playoff weeks SOS. Left to Right (Easy to Tough).

Slide4

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