By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 11

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 11 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 10  report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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• Predicted Total Game Points

• 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

• Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3/4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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PHI has more High-Risk Players going this week vs DAL tonight

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DAL vs PHI

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DAL

DAL without Elliot is predicted to lose by a score! Dak, however, can win this game as the PHI D is yielding a +0.2 DAP and QB DAP. That implies an average game. The issue is if last week was average then DAL has a problem! He is still ranked at 82 and low risk. I expect 3 scores and a bounce back!

The WRs from DAL are the game keys as they face a +3.8 (add a score to the average). Dez should get a score and yards at low risk 88! T Will and Butler might stretch the field for a score. Beasley can surprise and I have him at mid risk 44. He will be the PPR guy in here to score! The WRs must keep DAL close for an upset chance!

Witten will be a steady influence and battles into a -0.2 TE DAP! Expect grabs and maybe a score! He is mid risk 73!

The Mystery is how the RBBC can keep the PHI defense honest and let Dak find the WRs for scores! Morris is high risk 49 and Smith is low risk 46! Maybe one scores but their job is the get the passing game going!

A long night for DAL to stay close.

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PHI

Wentz has been a revelation this season and figures to continue PHI’s winning ways vs an Elliot-less DAL team! He faces a+3 DAP and +0.7 QB DAP (an average game for him). 4 scores are possible in here! I have him at mid risk 95! Play him in cash DFS!

The PHI WR also get a +3 WR DAP and should have a nice night. Jeffery is a low risk 80 and Agholor at a mid risk 70! They get 2 to 3 scores. Smith might even get a long yard score tonight! Play them is you have them!

Ertz vs a -0.9 TE DAP. That implies an average game. He scores this week with nice PPR grabs! Could score twice! I rank him at a low risk 97. Cash DFS play!

Ajayi is starting his full PHI game and figures for a scoring longshot vs a -0.7 RB DAP. I still have him at 77 but high risk! His snaps might be less depending on the playbook learning he has done! The others are high risk as well and the actual workload (snaps are to be determined) We will have a better idea after this game. Blount FYI is always a short yard red-zone guy!

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