By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 10

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 10 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figures 3/4  Week 9 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

Equal number of high risk players on both teams!

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CAR vs MIA

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 CAR

Cam gets a slightly tough Defense giving a -1.3 overall DAP and +1.1 QB DAP. Those DAP suggest an average CAM game tonight. CAR is favored by 2 TDs plus! Cam is at a high risk 88. he gets 2 TDs passing and hopefully runs a score in! Game Key!

The CAR WR battle a -2.2 DAP and will have a chance to score twice! Funchess is low risk 86 and figures for a score! Samuel is high risk 57 and could break a long pass for a score!

Ed Dickson has a favorable DAP of +4.2 (Add a score)/ He gets 6 grabs plus a score at a high risk 67!

The RB from CAR face a -3.3 RB DAP (minus a half a score on average). McCaffrey is mid risk 91 and Stewart at mid risk 44! McCaffery can score and get PPR love by grabbing 8 catches! Stewart might score in the red-zone.

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MIA

Culter is a high risk 27 vs a -17.5 overall DAP! (minus 3 Scores). Tough night for Jay! He gets a -3-3. QB DAP! Not expecting a good game from him!

The MIA WR are good and might score vs a -2.3 WR DAP! I suspect Landry is a PPR guy and catches many short passes or check-downs! He is a low risk 92 and Parker is at low risk 86. Still also is in the mix at mid risk 58. Normally these guys score 2 to 3X! Hard to see a normal game from them.

The MIA TE has been more active and Thomas is high risk 59! Maybe 5 catches.

The RBs from MIA did ok late week in PPR. Tonight they see -3.3 RB DAP. If MIA is to win these are the game keys! They must rise above the tough DAP and score! Drake is mid risk 68 and Williams at 54 low risk. Maybe yards and a score expected!

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