By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 9

GB vs DET

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 9 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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Predicted Total Game Points

2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figures 3/4  Week 9 TEAM PLAYER Counts by Risk Levels

GB has more High Risk players than DET tonight due to GB quarterback! Beware!

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GB vs DET

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GB

The key for GB tonight is the QB. Hundley was not good first time out. I have him at high risk 34! He faces a -1.1 DAP and -1.5 QB DAP from  the DET D! Very unclear picture. The DAP data suggests a down game for GB!

The GB WRs go into battle vs a -0.5 WR DAP and might get 1 score? Nelson and Adams are ranked 20% less than under Rodgers and that might continue to drop! Adams is a low risk 73 and Nelson Mid risk 83. I would start them but don’t expect much!

The GB TE is going into a +1.4 TE DAP situation but Bennett maybe out leaving Kendricks who I did not rank. He might be a “Check-down Charlie” and grab a few catches only. I would rank him high risk 40! Bennett is mid risk 55 if he plays

The GB game script suggests it is the RBS that keep it close. Jones vs a +0.6 RB DAP and is low risk 82. He can get 1 or 2 scores with 100 yards! Monty can also collect some yards and is a mid risk 62! Short passes out of the backfield might be Hundley’s style tonight but the DET D will catch on to that!

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DET 

The Lions are projected to win by 4 points assuming the GB D is doing its job! Stafford is facing off against a -1.1 DAP and -0.8 QB DAP. ( A slight below average game for him) I have him at low risk 78! 3 scores are the ceiling!

The WR tandem of MJ and Tate will collect 2 of the 3 scores. Tate is a mid risk 90 (injury) and MJ is low risk 78! They split 200 passing yards and the 2 scores maybe 60/40%. Play them if needed! They will be game keys as the GB D gives a +3.5 WR DAP (Add 50 yards and 1/2 a score) to WRs average!

The DET TEs have been uneven and tonight face a tough -6 TE DAP. At best a few check-downs for 6 grabs!

The DET RBs might have some juice to get a score vs a +1.8 RB DAP. Riddick can grab a score out of backfield and Abdullah grind it down for 80 yards and he can score. One scores but which one?

Det should win tonight but it is close!

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