By John Bush
Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 9
Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs
Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 9 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:
- Game Script
- Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
- Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
- My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)
Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 9 report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.
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I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.
Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables.
- Predicted Total Game Points
- 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
- Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green
Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis
Figure 3/4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)
OAK has more High-Risk Players going tonight vs MIA
MIA vs OAK
Culter/Moore face off in an easy defense giving points away vs average! They will see am overall +7.6 DAP and +2.5 DAP (add 100 yards extra). They can get 3 scores. Cutler is high risk 28 and Moore is low risk 16!
The WRs should be able to earn yards and scores. Parker is back and low risk now 84, while Landry is the PPR catch guy to move the chains at mid risk 92 and Stills is mid risk 60. Stills may regress with Parker on the field. That makes him a WR4 type bye week play!
The TEs are battling a -3.1 TE DAP and will be quiet
The game key is the “new” lead dogs for MIA, Drake, and Williams (both high risk at 58 and 60). They see a +1.7 RB DAP and can give the MIA team a boost. They must step up for MIA to win. Play them as RB3 types bye week fill-ins!
Carr faces a tougher than average defense of -2.4 overall DAP but a +1.8 QB DAP. Carr has an average game for the win! He is mid risk 71!
The Crabtree vs Cooper debate continues in this game vs a -1.9 WR DAP. They both need scores to win this game. Both WRs are low risk and 89 and 92. I see them as both productive this game and are game keys. I would play both!
Cook the TE has the greatest opportunity to score vs a +3 TE DAP! He might be in line for 2 scores. Play in DFS!
Finally, the RBs get to fight a -3.5 DAP. That limits them by a minus 35 yards on average. They need to get the MIA D going to open the WR and TE to collect the winning scores! Lynch is, if he plays, a high risk 67 while the tandem of Richard and Washington are High and Mid risk 50 ish ranked. Not expecting so much in here but I would use Lynch if needed only!