Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition


My Risk and Reward -Thursday Night Edition Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.


I wished to give my take on the LAR vs SFO


Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide1


Figure 2 Thursday Night LAR vs. SFO Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The data shown in Figure 2 shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 40 points) LAR 27 vs SFO 14
  • 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)



Figure 3 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide23



Looking at the data, the total points for this game should be near 40 points of scoring or less (LOW Scoring- Defensive Battle).  I envision a skewed game where LARs are 27 and the SFO are 15 point producers. The LAR defense will be tough and the SFO easier (Figure 2)


Figure 4. LAR Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 

The LAR Offense faces slightly tough QB and TE SFO Defensive DAPs with a split decision on the SFO WRs DAPS of 2017 -2.4 or a +2.4 of 2016. This is going to be a nice game for Gurley ina volume plays vs a +2.1 to +9 SFO Defensive DAP. That is a but gap and we could be underestimating Gurley tonight? I consider him a high-ranking RB with a low risk. He is going to score once or twice. A hat-trick is in the realm of possibility!

The LAR WRS with Watkins 77 FSP ranks and Kupp 73 FSP ranking are high to mid-level risk because the LAR may not need so much passing power to win! The TE Everett is ranked mid-tier and mid-level risk. He has a slight chance to score. Goff figures to be lower as the passing game may not be needed if the SFO RB DAPs are real!

Play the LAR DEF in DFS and season long. Gurley could be a DFS golden ticket! Be thoughtful!


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide2


Figure 5. SFO Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 


The LAR defense will be tough (Figure 2). They are giving to their opponents almost nothing if using the 2016 DAP data. If the first two weeks of 2017 are a better indicator then the LAR defense weakness is a +8 DAP to RBs. Note they punish the WRs with a -11 DAP and QBs with a -7 DAP.

When SFO has the ball, Hyde figures to be the show! That it’s it! Given the LAR defense and other issues, he has a mid-level risk. I would not be scared to play in seasonal leagues as he has an 88 Ranking. (86 in PPR). In your DFS I would fade everyone else!

I will be looking hard not to use Garcon this week as well. Use him if needed only!


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide3

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