NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Last week was much more successful than week 1, but ups & downs are expected in the betting realm against the spread. This week I’m going to help you take Vegas by storm. I hope that some of you took the early line on Pittsburgh and got it before it shot up to double digits. Either way, you got the win with a 17-point shellacking of the Bradford-less Vikes. The Eagles let me down last week – I thought they had that game against the Chiefs and was sure they would at least cover. Either way, it was a great game to watch. My lock of the week, the Titans, handled Jacksonville with ease cruising to a 19-point win. I’m heading down to the beach for the weekend so let’s get these picks out of the way early this week!

ATS Record: 2-4  

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These spreads were taken from as of 9/21/17.

Chicago Bears +7.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger is notoriously better at home than he is away. Le’Veon and the Steelers struggled to get the offense moving on the ground last week. I think the Steelers pound the ball this week against the Bears that don’t seem to have a shot in this game. What does this mean for the bet? I’m playing the low scoring line, with the Bears airing it out in the 2nd half playing catchup. That means that this game stays relatively close, with Glennon proving that he deserves to play for one more week even though Trubisky is breathing down his neck. It’s an easy week for the Steelers to play at 80% and still get a win. With the Bears’ backs up against the wall, I like them to keep it close and therefore, will take the two-score line all day.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Detroit Lions

Look, both of these teams are playing really well right now. They are both 2-0 and the quarterbacks are playing like MVP’s – both have QB ratings above 112! I’ve watched both games for each team and feel like Atlanta is a much more well-rounded squad at this point. Sure, Stafford is ripping defenses apart right now and Abdullah actually looked like an NFL running back last week! But the fact of the matter is that the Lions haven’t had a running game in years. Not only do you need a running game to succeed in the NFL today, but you need to have a good secondary. Detroit’s passing defense has improved, but it’s not good enough to stop Ryan, Julio, and the rest of the goon-squad that helped Atlanta put up a ridiculous 32+ points per game last year. This game projects as a shootout and I’m taking the Falcons over almost anybody this year in an offensive battle.

Los Angeles Charges +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

These lines are tough this week – let’s just throw that out here. Going against yet another 2-0 team here, I expect the Chargers to show their offensive firepower at home against the Chiefs. It may be stupid, but I’m also expecting some sort of regression from the Chiefs. I still think they are a top 5-6 team in the league this year, but they have looked too good these first two weeks. The line seems to be toying with the public too much for me to take it. Everyone is riding the Chiefs as the best team in football right now and now they are 3.5 favorites on the road? That is screaming for us to take them. If Vegas though the Chiefs were the true #1 in the league, going against an 0-2 LA team, this would be more than 3.5 points. The Chargers lost a close one in Denver 24-21, then lost to a Miami team who had an extra week of preparation and rest. Rivers is a true competitor and isn’t going to let this team start out 0-3. Not only do I think the Chargers cover, but I think they win this game.

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