NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 3

Welcome to week three of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! Last week we picked the Raiders as our pick of the week (who won handily 45-20), and the Bucs and Seahawks as our secondary picks, both who were able to pull out victories.  That being said, the Seattle/SF game was much closer than expected, showing why you really should try to avoid picking these division matchups when you can.  Hopefully you went with my pick of the week and are still alive!  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom!


Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

I have to admit, I thought the Browns were going to put up a bigger fight than they did last week. That being said, we did see Jacksonville fall off their high horse at the hands of a division rival, and somehow the 49ers were able to push the Seahawks into a thriller at Seattle.  These games are not only incredibly entertaining, they are also very unpredictable.

I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
  • New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
  • Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
  • New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

I know I always give the Bengals a hard time when it comes to the prime time section, but last Thursday proved why. Playing at home, against a team with a very raw looking rookie QB, they couldn’t even put up a touchdown with an offense featuring one of the top receivers in the game.  Then, when we thought Andy Dalton couldn’t be any worse, we got to watch Eli Manning play to finish off week three Monday night.  For whatever reason, some teams just can’t play in front of a national audience.

Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
  • Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins
  • Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Last week we saw home teams take back the trend as nine games were won at home. This included a statement game by Atlanta over Green Bay, showing that they are still the team to beat in the NFC.  Similarly in Denver we saw that Dallas may not be the team everyone thought they were, as well as that the AFC West just got a lot more interesting.

Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (London – both teams are away!)
  • Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears
  • Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

Step 4 – Make your pick!

Last week Aaron Rodgers lost on the road on national TV to a very good team. This week I think he is looking for some revenge, and in comes the Cincinnati Bengals.  Now with a new offensive coordinator, I expect the Bengals to try some new things, but I just can’t see a scenario where Andy Dalton steals a win in the heart of Packer country.

My pick of the week is:

  • Green Bay Packers over Cincinnati Bengals


Other option I like this week:

  • New England Patriots over Houston Texans

I don’t know if there is anything that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick love more than hosting a rookie quarterback. The last time the Patriots played at home this season it didn’t go too well.  Look for that trend to change this weekend.


Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!


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