Risk and Reward _ CIN vs HOU

By John Bush

Risk and Reward _ CIN vs HOU Thursday Night Edition

I wished to give my take on the CIN vs HOU

My Risk and Reward will include:

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  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures

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The data shown in Figure 2 shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Looking at the data, the total points for this game should be near 40 points of scoring (LOW Scoring- Defensive Battle).

Figure 2 Thursday Night CIN vs HOU Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

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That is interesting as the DAPs show strong defenses on both sides from the 2016 data. This issue for me is the HOU Defensive’s 2017 week 1 performance.  They ceded a lot of points in total and were easy at the RB position with a +12.5 DAP. Compare 2016 vs 2017 Week 1 DAPs. Which team will show up? The obvious easy advantage lies with the CIN RBs facing this +12.5 DAP. Much Easier than average.  So for DFS and lineups, the data steers us to only use the CIN RBs. But who?

My concern for the HOU team is that CIN DEF week 1 2017 and all of 2016 seem to be close in DEF DAPs. Expect the HOU players to struggle. However, CIN DEF was also nice to week 1 RBs, generating a +7.2 DAP.  This was much different from the CIN -.7 DAP last year. Can L. Miller rush enough to take advantage of this aspect of the CIN DEF? Hopkins can be a volume play tonight as well. Not a strong play for me but use him if you got to.

Note both CIN and HOU give nice DAP to the opponent’s DEF. Maybe the play of the night is the DEFs in DFS

Given the Thursday Night History, I would be conservative with the all the players. Maybe a fade game for your DFS plays? The game script and DAPs seem to support the favoritism of the Bengals tonight!


Figure 3 Short Discussion of Risk 

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Here are the rankings and risk levels. All RBs risky except Benard in PPR! Mr. Green should score but will need to step up to get you multiple scores. Dalton continues to be a mid level risk and lowly ranked at 39.7%. That is much better than the HOU QB though! CIN could get well here!

Figure 4 CIN Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 

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I like the HOU DEF over the CIN DEF. L. Miller the RB has the opportunity to multi score and is a low risk. Hopkins is a volume play due to the rookie QB! Again caution is called for here. FYI, Watson, the QB is mid risky and ranks at 24. (weak sauce)

Figure 5 HOU Team Players Rankings (PPR and Non_PPR) and Risk 

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