Risk and Reward – Thursday Night Edition

By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

The first game of the season is playing tonight. I wished to give my take on the Patriots vs Chiefs for your line-ups etc.

My Risk and Reward will include:

  • Game Script

  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data

  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red

  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

Game Script and DAPs

The data Figure 1 shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points
  • 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

Figure 2 is my How to Read Figure for my Game Script/DAP Data

Looking at the data, the total points for this game is near 48 points of scoring. That is interesting as the DAPs show strong defenses on both sides. The obvious easy advantage lies with the NE WRs facing a +1 DAP. Easier than average.  So for DFS and line-ups, the data steers us to only use the NE WRs. Certainly, Brady should have a good (not great) game and is a nice play as well. Also, the NE has an average DAP of- 0.2  and will add to the scoring. Start all NEs players as you would normally

My concern is the KC team whose DAPS are tough with the KC RBs at -3.7 DAP and TE at -1.6. The KC WRs face a tough-1.3 DAP as well. This game is a huge test for all the KC players. Can one player step up?

Given the Thursday Night History, I would be conservative with the KC players. NE player should give average production. The game script implies nice scoring and a lot of that will come from the NE side.

Figure 1 Thursday Night Patriots vs Chiefs

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Figure 2 How to Interpret Game Scripts and DAPS

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Risk and Reward by Teams, Positions, and Players

Figures 3 and 4  present the KC and NE teams. These data charts give:

  • Position Rankings for DST, K, and QB (Colorized High to Low)

  • Risk Analysis by Column Placement

  • NON-PPR and PPR Rankings with Risk



Figure 3 KC Team Risk and Reward Analysis Non-PPR and PPR Edition

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Figure 4 NE Team Risk and RewardAnalysis Non-PPR and PPR Edition 

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