Positional PPR Points 2013-16 Part 2

By John Bush

2013-16 Positional PPR Points Part 2

This is part 2 in this series of 2013-16 Team Positional PPR Points metric based posts. In the first part (www.fakepigskin.com/2017/08/10/positional–ppr–points-2013-16-part-1/) we covered a initial look across all Teams at the 4 main fantasy football positions.

It is essential for your success at your 2017 fantasy football draft to have a strong level of confidence. Knowing the data landscapes of positions and teams will add to that success. It should be obvious that this is a team sport and taking a “systems” approach will give you an edge over your competitors. I like the top down team to position and player investigation approach over the bottom up from the player to team.

In science, questions are your friend therefore use this data to develop questions for further analysis.

Introduction

The next figures are based on fantasy points scoring totals using PPR scoring of each team’s QB, RB, TE, and WR within the context of the entire team over the last 4 years. I think breaking into divisions and conferences gets you a little deeper to think about the journey each team will take within the 2017 season. These metrics are color-coded (green good to red poor) and 4 year totals to the right.

The Process

The tables are clearly labeled and understandable.

STEP 1. Do a team analysis over the 4 years. Note the Position usages

STEP 2. Focus your attention across the teams by position

STEP 3. See the DIFF changes over the 4 Years vs last year. What teams improved and where?

Comments Section. I will add selected comments as I believe your journey is better facilitated by your own analysis.  I do not think spoon feeding the obvious is worth our time. 

Figure 1 AFC EAST – BUF / NYJ / MIA / NE

BUF-Moved to more a RB focus and had a loss in WR usage. Given the Watkins uncertainties, it support that thought.  McCoy should drag them to some victories. He is the only player I would draft at his ADP from this team. 

NJY: This team must be mad at TEs. Upticks in all other positions to compensate. The QB situation is going to not be positive and its looks like they will be a free square in most of their games for their opponents. Playing all defenses against the Jets could be an interesting approach this year. 

MIA: The QB and RB are moving up in importance. Jay A should benefit. They just signed Cutler and he is back with his old coach. I think the RBs will benefit early and then as he gets going the strong WRs (one of the strongest triple threats in the league?) should be rewarded with receptions. 

NE: Even with their successes the WRs and TE players have had a drop. Brady spreading the ball has increased his numbers. Can Gronk come back? If so expect the RBs to benefit. Cooks is the interesting play we will be the wildcard in the WRs. Consider him a high risk high reward  blue sky player! Roll that dice! 

 Figure 2. AFC NORTH – BAL/PIT/CLE/CIN

BAL: The QBs importance has grown across the league as pass happiness is spreading. Is Flaco is healthy then the good WRs should move up and repay their drafters. Wallace and Maclin are the strong tandem with Perriman a nice third! 

PIT: Looks like the Passing and Rushing increases to all except WRs (-5.4% is sad). Brown will not do it all. Others will need to step up in 2017? But who? Bell will win victories for PIT and can move them far in 2017. Draft at 2 ADP is a fair price today. 

CLE: QBs are all moving up in importance! Sad drops in all positions in usage and productions. Be concerned! 

CIN: QBs up but RB/TE down. 2017 will be see TEs up with a healthy Efiert? I have many shares in redraft on him. AJ Green and others expect the same show as 2016. 

Figure 3 AFC SOUTH – IND/HOU/JAC/TEN

IND: Lucks flabby arm is of concern and that could be an issue. Note the shift to RB rush/pass and TEs passing with a drop (-6.1%) to the WR. Much like PIT! 

HOU: DEEP WRs issues here with a 9% drop in usage. Apply concern to your HOU WR drafting in 2017. Nice shift to the TE though. CJ is a definite deep TE play! I am drafting him late as my TE 2. Believe it! 

JAC: TEs saw an small uptick. WRs dropped. Beware

TEN: Certainly the RBs usage improved and I expect a continuation. Cautious on the TE and WRs. Questions remain for me?

Figure 4 AFC WEST – DEN/KC/OAK/SD

DEN: Hum the drop at TEs suggests they miss OJ Thomas! Expect the same show as last year!

KC: Its fall-over clear that the RB position was not used as before with a drop of -8.7%. That may explain the lower ADP for the RB tandem of Ware and Hunt. Given the crowded backfield and this lost of usage, I would certain trim my ADP price points below the current 24th and 39th RBs. (Shift to 29th and 44th RBs). Looking forward to the WR T Hill should be featured as well as Kelce. Nice usages for 2017 could be expected. 

OAK: This team carries the high hopes of many players. D Carr should be heavily used and is a suitable late QB target. Solving the RB riddle should earn bonus points. I am drafting deep into this RB background. The WRs and TEs must pick it up. Slight concerns! 

SD: Expect the same show but with Woodhead gone and a RB -3.6% drop, i would wonder  if Gordon is as valuable as being drafted. Slight Concern. 

Figure 5  NFC EAST – DAL/NYG/PHI/WAS

NYG: Nothing new here in RBs or WRs. They still need a TE to step up. Some space exists there for one. Be watchful!

PHI: Welcome Mr Ertz to the arena! He was responsible fore the +3.7 uptick in usage! A nice later round TE target.  WRs however, dropped down by -6%. Mid level concerns for the WRs. Be cautious. Expect the QB and RBs to do what they do! 

WAS: Cousins was the show and directed the team well in 2016. He spread the ball and the RB and WRs did see a drop -1.5 to -1.9%. Even with some injury the TE tandem of Reed and Davis keep the team in the chips. Some additions and subtractions in the WR corp. Expect about the same usage levels. 

Figure 6 NFC NORTH – CHI/DET/GB/MIN

CHI: The WRs will again have to be the show to balance this out. Some concern for Howard as the drop in usage was -2.5%  as was the TE position. They need to rebalance positions for a upward movement. 

DET: RBs down by -5.8% hence the Adullah lower ADP than other RBs. The TE should be in balance while I expect G Tate to continue upward and he could be a nice late WR1s for you this year! 

GB: GB looks just like DET in the positional usage changes. They are going to have to keep up with them as well to win the division.  Expect the WRs to be the main attack points for this offense and with the pass catching T Mont they could add some RB improvement for 2017.

MIN: This is a true improving team. Losing  “A Peterson”  led to upticks at the TE and WR positions to continue their improvement. Nice profile here, tough division,  but might be in line for wildcard spots! Expect players to move forward. Bullish on the WRs. Go get you some! 

Figure 7 NFC SOUTH – ATL/CAR/NO/TB

ATL: Has the potential to have peaked last year. Julio can not be the entire show, yet the other WRs are being drafted way later. One trick pony with concerns. The RBs tandem will need to take the heat to get JJ a chance to shine. 

CAR: Expect the same as you got last year. Maybe the rookie RB, McCaffrey can move the RB position up? Steady team for 2017. 

NO: The TE position still misses JG! No doubt. The loss of Cooks might hurt but given the +5.3% movement in the WR position up last year, I expect the Brees-WR show to be in force. The surprise will be if the tandem RBs will make the RB position heavily use for 2017. 

TB: The QB with Taylor has improved as has the TEs with a nice 2.4 to 3.1% improvement in team usage. The issue has been the RB. in the WR, Evans can not be the show as seen in NYG and PIT. They added Marshall and I expect an improved WR usages in 2017. A role for Marshall will come from the RB and or TEs. Given the D Martin issues that may be the plan. TB will rely on their WRs even more. 

Figure 8 NFC WEST – LAR/SEA/SF/ARI

LAR: The lost team of this division. They seem to be very much and QB/WR show with %4 or so in increased usage. Can Gurley move forward? Is there a TE to step up? I have mid level Gurley concerns but they have had a full year to get him ready to roll. Will be surprised if they shift to the RB. I have been taking Woods as a late WR all day. Has the way clear to move forward. No excuses for him. 

SEA: Mr Graham is back  and he moved the TE position +3.1. Expect the same or better. I expect the other positions to be near steady state. They will continue to be the big dog using their mobile QB and defense. WR Baldwin is a fine choice but not a current bargain. E Lacy is controversial and it will be a revolving door at the RB position. Beware! 

SF: They will be all Rushing all the time. Note the shift to RBs +4.1. Hyde and the new kid should be an effective tandem. I am drafting Hyde at his price. The WRs are going to be tricky with that -6% drop in usage. Garson can be the show but still a one dog in the pack! 

ARI: Can Palmer’s dead arm be brought back to life. Note the drop in the TE and WRs because of the QB situation. I am not sure the number of WRs being drafted can be supported by this team? I am penalizing the ARI WRs a little in my ADP price for them! 

 

Next Up Article is Part 3 Last of this Series (Monday 8/14)

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