NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 5

Welcome to the fifth week of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Once again our secondary picks came up short as both Baltimore and San Diego lost in the final seconds of their games.  However, at the end of the day, all that matters is the team you go with, and if you have been following our advice you should still be alive as our pick of the week was victorious (thanks to a magical fumble that may or may not have happened).  Time for five!  Read on and feel free to comment at the end.

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Four of the six division games last weekend came down to seven or less points.  Two of them came down to only a field goal.  The two games that weren’t close?  Buffalo shutting out the Patriots in New England and the Falcons putting up 48 points on the Panthers.  Have I convinced you to not pick these games yet?  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division matchups:

  • Cardinals at 49ers
  • Buccaneers at Panthers
  • Chargers at Raiders

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

What did the three primetime games all have in common last weekend?  Yes, they were all basically blowouts, but the interesting thing was all of the blowouts were won by the home team.  Although the biggest surprise might have been Andy Dalton actually showing up for a primetime game.  Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Cardinals at 49ers
  • Giants at Packers
  • Buccaneers at Panthers

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Once again, home field advantage seems to be lacking compared to previous seasons.  We saw a ton of big road wins from the Saints, Rams and Bills to name a few.  That being said it is only four weeks into the season, and until I see a trend much longer than four weeks I am still favoring the home team.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Patriots at Browns
  • Eagles at Lions
  • Bengals at Cowboys

**disclaimerPatriots over Browns is the one exception to this rule.  Come on, are the Browns really beating Brady in his first game back after the Patriots were shut out at home the week prior?  Expect no mercy here.

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Steelers over Jets

Did you watch the Steelers last week?  They absolutely embarrassed a very good Kansas City team.  The very same Kansas City team that beat the Jets 24-3 one week prior.  I can see this getting ugly quickly in Pittsburgh.

Other options I like this week:

  • Vikings over Texans

Similarly, I have been very impressed with this Vikings team as well as I have been very unimpressed with the Texans.  The Texans have been blown out by New England, and barely beat the Bears, Chiefs, and Titans.  Two of which were decided by seven or less points.  The Vikings on the other hand have beaten the Packers, Giants, and Panthers.  Which wins are more impressive to you?

  • Dolphins over Titans

I know, I know, but hear me out.  Adam Gase is only five weeks into his career, he is finally back home, and possibly coaching for his career already (sadly).  The Dolphins have also had extra days to prepare for this matchup and are finally starting to get healthy.  On the other side of the ball, Tennessee has not looked impressive and when these two teams met last season, the outcome was 38-10 Miami.

Thanks for reading!

Feel free to follow me for great fantasy football advice on twitter @DE_aaron

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