Ezekiel Elliott and the Best Rookie Rushing Season

There is a ton of buzz surrounding Ezekiel Elliott and rightfully so with rookie drafts underway and re-draft leagues on the horizon. The talent is unquestionable between his ability to find lanes and explosiveness once he picks his spots. Elliott shows an ability to impact the pass game as well. For most, if not all fantasy football analysts or players a dream scenario occurred with the best running back in the draft ended up in the best landing spot there is, with the Dallas Cowboys. The have a ready built offensive line that is among the NFL’s elite. He will be getting the ball from a quarterback that is in the upper tier when healthy. With Dez Bryant on the outside stacking the box likely won’t be a factor for Elliott. All of this sets up Elliot to put himself in the conversation of best season for a running back in NFL history.

The recent transition from a league full of run based offenses to ones that lean more heavily on the pass may lead some to believe that days of a rookie running back being an instant bell cow that an offense is built around to be a thing. Todd Gurley was the latest in a long line of players to excel in their rookie season. He put up 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns last year for the Rams in only 13 games.

In 2012 not one but two running backs were given the opportunity to be the feature back for their offense. Both Alfred Morris and Doug Martin eclipsed the 300 plus carry mark in their rookie seasons. Morris ran for 1,613 and 13 touchdowns. Martin went for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Year	Player	Carries	Rushing Yards	Rushing tds	Receptions	Recieving Yards	Recieving TDs	Fantasy Points	PPR Points
1999	Edgerrin James	369	1,553	13	62	586	4	315.9	377.9
2002	Clinton Portis	273	1,508	15	33	364	2	289.2	322.2
2012	Doug Martin	319	1,454	11	49	472	1	264.6	313.6
2012	Alfred Morris	335	1613	13	11	77	0	247	258
2007	Adrian Peterson	238	1341	12	19	268	1	238.9	257.9
2008	Chris Johnson	251	1,228	9	43	260	1	208.8	251.8
2015	Todd Gurley	229	1,106	10	21	188	0	189.4	210.4

Another talented running back joined an offense to add balance to an already dynamic passing attack. When Edgerrin James played his initial season he carried the ball 369 times for 1,553 yards and 13 touchdowns. He did this while Peyton Manning threw the ball 533 times for over 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. It’s the best season by a rookie running back in recent history. These numbers may feel aggressive projections for the Elliot in his first year it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

So what is standing in the way of Elliot and incredible rookie season. The Cowboys signed Alfred Morris during the offseason to a 2 year deal that guarantees him $2 Million. The likelihood of Morris getting little to no work this season is simply unreasonable. That doesn’t mean Elliot will not be great or not be worth of a high draft pick come draft day. Darren McFadden as of now anyway, is in the mix. He was a valuable contributor especially down the stretch. He ran for 1,089 yards in 239 attempts.

Two seasons ago when the Cowboys were a run based offense they ran the ball 508 times with DeMarco Murray getting 392 of those carries. While nobody should predict a total that high for Elliott, they are said to want to get back to the ground game in a big way this season. If you give Morris and McFadden around 250 carries that should leave Elliott with 200 carries from which to produce with. Likely building up his workload as the season moves along. Projecting numbers somewhere between what Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson did in their inaugural seasons doesn’t seem crazy. My early guess would be 1,200 yards and 8-12 touchdowns with the opportunity to be even better if Dallas gives him the work. They clearly believe in the talent taking him with the 4th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. And unlike Gurley he will not be coming off of a major injury.

Follow @notoriouskro

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