NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 4

Welcome to the fourth week of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. Last week we continued our streak of success with the Patriots, Seahawks, and even the Texans all being victorious, allowing our picks to go 3-0 for the third week in a row. Let’s try to make it four!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Simply put, there were some amazing division games last week. The Colts barely avoided a disastrous loss, winning by two points on the road against Tennessee, the Bengals won a shootout in Baltimore, edging out their division rivals by four, and Cam Newton scored three touchdowns to beat the struggling Saints by less than a touchdown. These games are sure to provide tons of entertainment; I just wouldn’t put my eliminator season on any of them. Follow my number one advice: do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Baltimore at Pittsburgh
  • NY Jets at Miami
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis
  • Carolina at Tampa Bay
  • Philadelphia at Washington
  • St. Louis at Arizona

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

The Giants picked up their first win of the season at home, the Broncos manhandled the Lions on the road, and Aaron Rodgers was unbelievable in Green Bay (despite his PFF ranking). While this past weekend’s slate of prime time games weren’t very unpredictable, don’t let that erase your memory of previous week’s results. Unless you want to take a chance I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Baltimore at Pittsburgh (also a division matchup)
  • Dallas at New Orleans
  • Detroit at Seattle

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Similar to last week’s marquee matchups, the home field advantage rule was at a loss last weekend. Eight teams were victorious on the road, including the Steelers in an ugly win against the St. Louis Rams. That all being said, eight other teams still won in front of their home crowds, and the recent history of the NFL tells you that you still need to avoid the away teams whenever you can. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Green Bay at San Francisco

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

Denver over Minnesota

While the Vikings are a good team with AP back in the fold, the truth of the matter is I just do not trust Teddy Bridgewater. His performance wasn’t very comforting against San Diego, and I expect a surging Broncos defense to give him fits. I’m going with the broncos at home against a young, unproven quarterback.

Other options I like this week:

Atlanta over Houston

Atlanta has played very well so far this season, and Houston has not. Combine that with the fact that this game is in Atlanta and I do not expect this to be a close game. Expect Julio to continue his unbelievable statistical season this Sunday.

Buffalo over NY Giants

This season Buffalo already has quality wins over the Colts and Dolphins, and only lost by one touchdown to the Patriots. Rex Ryan has this team running on all cylinders and I expect the Bills to hit Eli Manning too many times for him to get the ball in the hands of OBJ. It might be close, but I expect the Bills to come out on top.

Thanks for reading!


Feel free to follow me for great fantasy football advice on twitter @DE_aaron

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