Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. I have discussed decisions under uncertainty before in my many articles.

The approach I use is synthesis of many data streams that provide input for different scenarios that may exist in fantasy football.

Additionally, I also move from the Top-Down Broad into the Specific. Having been a scientist for 35 years, deconstruction is a strong method for investigations leading to hypothesis testing and research findings.

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Week 6 Team Average PPR Based Rankings Raw and Scaled Rankings to League Average.

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. The framing of the week’s teams by highlighting their average fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) is essential to finding sweet spots for line-ups, and DFS plays.

The top teams in week 6 for fantasy are DAL/KC/LAR/BAL/ARI/TEN/PIT/IND, and many have a solid matchup, and some could surprise this week. I move towards these teams in DFS.

The bottom teams here are NYJ DEN  for week 6, and these two are the extremes for week 6. Additionally, PHI/WAS/NE/SF/CIN/CLE/ATL/CHI  teams have various issues this week. Move away from them, especially for any gamble or marginal plays.

 

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Week 6 Team Scaled FSPR Player Averages

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. This Bar graph is a visual aid in considering the FSPR Team rankings. I scaled the data against the week 6 league average to calculate a Team’s advantage or disadvantage this week.

For example, DAL and KC are very high as compared to the other teams. DFS Stacking?

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Team Level Uncertainty

Week 6 Rankings with Uncertainty. Thus, I begin with a look at this week’s Team level of uncertainty.

  • High uncertainty suggests deeper thinking and more caution in DFS and line-ups.
  • On the other hand, low uncertainty teams can provide us with DFS stacks and deep players into our line-ups.

The table below presents week 6’s UNC numbers from each team (High, AVG, and Low). Additionally, I calculated a ratio of Team players High or AVG in UNC vs. Low UNC. Interestingly, this ratio gives a look into the Team’s overall uncertainty for your consideration. Finally, I colorized the numbers and team names to give the overall UNC landscapes.

Move toward the top teams in DFS and away from the higher UNC teams. For example, TEN is a lower UNC team with the 6th highest FSPRs (see above).  On the other hand, KC was high in FSPR but has High UNC leading to a higher player variation prediction.  Compare the two data streams for other focus worthy teams in week 6.

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Bar Graph Plot of Week 5 Team Uncertainty Levels

Week 6 Rankings with Uncertainty. The simple Bar Graph encapsulates the Landscape of Team Uncertainty for week 6. The low UNC teams are low green stained and plotted to the right vs. the high UNC Teams are high red-stained to the left. The level of each team can be used for further decisions.

 

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Player PPR Rankings with UNC Levels by Positions

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. These following figures place all players within their positions of my rankings and uncertainty levels.

Use these metrics to establish levels for your DFS and Line-ups plays.  Make sure that these are combined with my Match-Up Analysis upcoming. Scan first, then drill down to ask questions.

Each Data Block consists of:

  • Team 
  • Players 
  • HIGH AVG or LOW UNC
  • FSPR Week 6 under the right UNC level.
  • FSPR Ranking no UNC

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Defenses

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KICKERs

 

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Quarterbacks

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

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Professor’s MATCH-UP ANALYSIS

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. I present the heart of my week 6 analysis for line-ups, and DFS plays. Fantasy Football is a weekly game that places Teams into different environments, and outcomes are based on those situations.

Firstly, I use Vegas Metrics to frame the scoring potential of all games. Move toward higher scoring games.

Secondly, I bring onto the table the match-ups defense against the positions metrics (DAPs) to see the sweet spots and traps for the players.

Thirdly, I like to go toward safer, easy spots for players, but stud players are those that can fight through adversity. Weak deeper plays are only advised in higher-scoring games.

As the points go down, you should get more cautious except in tournament DFS where going contrary can be profitable. 

Finally, I focus on talent, not hype! Ignore the sizzle and chew into the game bottom lines!

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Week 56 Vegas High Scoring Games (above 49 total game points)

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. The table below lists the 8 games that Vegas suggests will be high scoring this week, and thus, you should move toward these games for DFS Stacks, etc. as well as deeper plays in your line-ups. You must still use common sense but look extra hard to find surprises in these games.

I will go through the MIN vs. ATL Game as an example to follow for all games using my process.

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Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

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MIN vs. ATL – Example Analysis

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Week DAP Analysis Game By Game

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. Each Game Matchup started with Vegas, as should above. MIN vs. ATL is a predicted High Scoring Game. Next, I use DAPs to fill in the environment for each team.

Each DAP Figure contains:

  • Team Consider
  • Opponent Team
  • OPP Team’s Defense vs. Rushing/Passing/Pass-Catching (Tough vs. Easy with average being a blank designation)
  • Positional DAPs -Specific DAPs for each Position ( 0 to 100 Scaled -RED DAPs are tougher vs. Green DAPs are easier).

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Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

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MIN

WEEK 6 rankings FSPR (Fantasy Sports Professor’s Rankings).

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. The actual FSPR tables list the positions with player rankings 0 to 100 ish under their UNC level colorized for ease of viewing. Scan and then place in contexts of the above information. 

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Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. When MIN has the ball, they face an easy overall environment. ATL is not a strong defense.

MIN RBs are going into a near-average rushing DAP of +57.6. Below find my FSPR view of MIN, and I have Mattison of 85/100 as a low uncertainty player this week. It’s a nice, not great play this week.  

MIN gets a great passing situation as Cousins (FSPR 68 Avg UNC Level) faced an extremely easy +120 QB DAP! He scores multiple TDs! His WRs will fight though into a +40 WR DAP and could limit some scoring. The TE, however, is going into a 120 DAP, and Jimmy Graham can score multiples. 

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Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

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ATL

Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty. When ATL has the ball, they an average DEF of +58 (slightly easy). This is the reason Vegas says it’s a High Scoring Affair! Gurley (80 Avg UNC) faces a slightly hard RB DAP at +45. He should give an average day for your team.

Ryan ( 53 High UNC) faces a slightly tough QB DAP at +45, and that may limit his day. The TE also faces a very tough DAP of +18! I would fade Hurst this week. The ATL WRs should collect the passing scores facing +82 WR DAP. Jones is coming back, and I have him at 29 High UNC, Ridley at 89 Low UNC, and Gage/Ola at 47 and 37 Low UNC. Other than Ridley not sure if I play another. Jones is always a threat, but cautious! 

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Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

 

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Above Average Scoring Games (Above 45 Points to 49 Points)

 

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Below Average Scoring Games (Less than 45 Points)

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