Week 5 Targets and Touches

Week 5 Targets and Touches

Week 5 Targets and Touches. My weekly routine is analyzing various fantasy football metrics, including:

  • Snaps per Second of Offensive Possession. See Below
  • Snaps Report for this Week
  • Targets and Touches
  • Vegas Over-Under Lines
  • Defense Against the Position
  • My Rankings with Uncertainty Analysis. (Coming Saturday)

We must deal with decisions under uncertainty in fantasy football.

**A range of potential futures can be identified at level three uncertainty. A limited number of key variables (See Above) define that range, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere within it. There are no natural discrete scenarios.

** https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategy-under-uncertainty#

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Week 5 Team Target Averages and Scaled Targets vs League Average

Week 5 Targets and Touches. I always begin in a top-down approach, and, n this case, I focus on the top target generating teams. Clear value in PPR scoring! I then highlight the extremes from High (green) and Low (red) of all the NFL teams.  Green X marks the High Target Efficiency teams.

I also consider the amount of data, and our floor is not solid with just four weeks of data but the more weeks then, the better for these metrics. I used average targets and targeting efficiency (targets sec) as a way to highlight team targets over the last 5 weeks. 

Analysis of Week 5 Targets and Touches.

DAL is the clear top at 46.6 target efficiency and Dak has been delivering but now Dalton is in and I expect a regression of DAL Targeting Efficiency. I will be shocked if DAL is now above the league average. Dalton will be the 16th QB type at that level. We will see if it’s the WRs or QBs in here for the metrics. 

CAR/NE/WAS/PHI/CIN/ATL/BUF/KC and NYJ are all teams having strong targeting efficiency! Some surprises for me and are Wentz etc under-owned? These teams stained green are also, pass-happy teams. Add Value to their pass-catchers! Note the Green X marking the tops in Team Targeting Efficiency. These are the team to focus on pass-catcher depth. 

The flip-side are BAL, LV, MIN, IND, DET, CLE, SEA, and LAR teams who are lower in the scaled average targets.  Subtract a value from their WRs. Rushing is more favored. Stock-pile RB handcuffs etc. These teams at or below -0.4 in scaled average targets. Caution in PPR leagues and DFS plays.

I note the SEA is on this list as they are a highly competitive team. 

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Scaled Team Target Averages vs Targeting Efficiency Weeks 1 to 5

Week 5 Targets and Touches. The visual view of the team targets is shown below. I like to graph data points in comparison to the league average. This allows me in a glance to see what teams were above or below the average of Targets.

Additionally, I colorized the bars with green vs red. Consider the reasons why and is this week going to be different? Finally, use Vegas and Defense against the Positions (DAPS) to investigate that question! 

I present Scaled Team Target Averages first to showcase Teams across the league vs league targeting averages. We must know the extremes for our finger-tip knowledge in line-ups and DFS plays. 

KEY Extremes in High Targeting Efficiency

KEY Extremes in High Targeting Efficiency are marked by Green Stars. Move-in PPR leagues toward them and away from lower Target Efficient teams on average. (Yes other data can and will modify those trends but we start here first). 

Additionally, consider why? What is going on in the top and bottom teams? Game Scripts etc. and is there a change this week?

Additionally, team targeting efficiency is interesting for some teams such as HOU which is low in target averages but has nice efficiency with their passing (Green Star). The opposite is CAR/LAC/BUF which are high in average targets but low in targeting efficiency? Questions remain. Is HOU going to improve vs CAR/LAC going to decline? Watch. 

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Targeting Averages Week 1 to 5 vs Team Positional Usages 

Week 5 Targets and Touches. I continue a drill down to see each team’s positions in terms of targeting averages weeks and positional usages from Weeks 1 to 5.

The actionable data here is what you can deduce from the trends.

Additionally, This landscape view is superior to what happened last week only. This broad view is a skill needed to improve your Fantasy Football Playing.

I look for extremes and unusual/surprising metrics. In these data, Teams are going to grade out higher in WRs (more of them) so if a team is overusing its RB or TE then the WR usages will be lower and standout.

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ARI/ATL/BAL/BUF

  • ATL: RB Low
  • ARI TE Low
  • BAL High TEs
  • BUF BAL Low WRs

   

Bar Graph Patterns

Also, I include a visual bar graph of the team positional usages as well. Give this a soft scan for developing opinions for DFS and lineups. Each block of data included 4 teams at a time. I like to see the red line patterns. I compare the teams using just the red line graphs

Find interesting situations!

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CAR/CHI/CIN/CLE

  • CAR Low TE  with High RB
  • CHI/CIN Low WR with High RBs
  • CLE Low RB and High TE

   

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DAL/DEN/DET/GB

  • DET Low WR but Great TE usages
  • GB High RB but Low TE

   

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HOU/IND/JAX/KC

  • KC Low RB vs High TE
  • JAX High RB
  • HOU Low RB Higher WRs

 

 

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LAC/LAR/LV/MIA

  • LV  Extreme TE and Very Low WR

   

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MIN/NE/NO/NYG

  • NE No TE Usage with Extreme WR
  • NO Extreme RB and Low TE
  • NYG All Positions Used 

   

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NYJ/PHI/PIT/SEA

  • PHI High TE and Low WR
  • NYJ Low RB Higher WR
  • SEA High RB

   

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SF/TB/TEN/WAS

  • SF Extreme TE vs Low WR
  • TEN Low RB High TE
  • WAS WR/TE Same 

   

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Targets and Usage Efficiency Within Positions.

Week 5 Targets and Touches. You must also consider the player’s ranking among their position. 

High in the team but Low in the league is different than High and High.

That should give your concerns for league lower players in targets. Weak teams are known to have poor depth in PPR scoring. Scan through the positions and find the unusual and extremes. ** Assuming FF data is normally distributed?

In an extreme value analysis, extreme events are defined to be those observations in a sample which are unusually high, or low, and are therefore considered to occur in the tails of a probability distribution.

Standard statistical methods are designed to characterize the mean behavior of a process or data sample and are therefore not generally useful for capturing this tail behavior.

https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/maths/research/statistics/extreme-value-statistics/

The following positional based tables have been sorted by Total Season Team Targeting Usages vs Average Targets

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Running Backs

  • Top teams in RB Usages are CAR NO CIN JAX NE CHI and GB all above 32% in RB usages!
  • Weak RB Usages below 23% coming from DET BAL PIT SF CLE ATL NYJ and TEN
  • Note Dal High Targets but low Usage in RB?
  • WAS/PHI/TB also relatively high RB Targets vs Lower Usages. 

   

BAR Graph RBs Targets vs Usages.

I note GB DAL and PHI which have their target average about the usages trend line (orange).

    

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Tight Ends

  • TE Centric Teams (Above 38% Usage) are SF/LV/KC/TEN/DET/BAL/PHI.
  • I note WAS and DAL’s TEs (high targets vs usages) are out on the waiver wires if needed.
  • SEA, MIN, GB, NO, ARI, CAR, and NE all below 25% TE Usages. Interesting in GB given the recent TE activity (watch)

   

  

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Wide Receivers

  • The top WR usage teams are NE/ATL/NYJ/ARI/MIN/CLE/PIT/SEA/HOU/LAR/GB/DAL teams with WRs used all above 46%. Key deeper WRs are viable on these teams.
  • Note MIN/CLE/LAR/SEA/HOU have poor target average yet higher usages
  • LV/SF/KC/WAS/PHI/JAX/DET/NYG/NO are poor WR using teams who are using the RB and/or TE to compensate. Beware depth WRs on these teams.

   

 

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Team Positional Player Week 1 to 5 Targets, Target Averages, and DIFFs

Week 5 Targets and Touches. I next drill down into these metrics within each Team. Fantasy Football is a weekly Team based game!

Secondly, I added the player usages within their teams for the “pecking order” as well as DIFFs to catch improving or declining players. 

These tables contain:

  • Team
  • Position
  • Player
  • Targets Week 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5     ( High to Low – Green to Red)
  • Target Averages                             ( High to Low – Blue to Red)
  • Weekly DIFFs                                  (High to Low -Purple to Yellow)

I like to use these metrics as a reference in the context of Vegas and DAPs. Is the pecking order real? Is the production real and will be replicated this week? Find the unusual and extreme. I scan for those and note those. 

My Week 5 Rankings are out tomorrow, FYI. 

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Player Based Week 1 to 5 Targeting Usages with DIFFs.

Week 5 Targets and Touches. The team-based data is good for within but how does the player stack up across the league at the position?

Again, a highly used player on a league low team is not as solid as you could think. Extremes are your friends in the data game!

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Running Backs Week 5 Targets 

Extremes are of interest.

  • For example,
  • Kamara +6 targets?
  • Burkhead -9 vs White is back +8
  • CEH +5 
  • J Williams +7
  • Elliot -6 / Singletary -5 / Jones -4

  

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Tight Ends Week 5 Targets 

  • Examples
  • Kelce +6 /  Henry +5/   Smith +7/   Andrews +6/   Ebron +6
  • Waller -5/  Kittle -7/  Engram -8/  Schultz -5 

 

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Wide Receivers Week 5 Targets 

  • Examples
  • Robinson +6/  Diggs +9/  Ridley +5/   AJBrown +9/  Fulgham +10
  • Cooper -10/  Allen -10/  McLaurin -7/  Jeudy -5 

 

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Running Back Touches with % Rushing vs Receiving (ATTs vs Targets)

Week 5 Targets and Touches.  RBs are the most difficult position in fantasy football to calculate because they both rush and catch. That fact then opens more possibilities within the game. Therefore, we must consider that extra dimension for RBs especially in PPR leagues. 

The easy RB to figure is one that does both catch and rush. The harder RBs are the pass-catcher only types as they are game script dependent. Thus if you have a pass-catcher RB (ie Edmonds 71% catching), you must consider the way that game might go. See Vegas and DAPs as a foundation for your thinking. 

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Team Level RB Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Rush/Pass Ratios

Week 5 Targets and Touches.  We must understand the nature of each team towards its use of RBs in rushing and passing.

Firstly, I calculated each Team’s Rush/Pass Ratio and Sorted all teams by that metric.

Next, I did normalize the data so we can directly compare the RB Rushing and Targeted numbers on a 100 to 0 Scale – High to Low. 

For Example, TEN is 88 in RB Atts vs 0.1 RB Targets which is extreme in RB ratios. The Flip-side is NYG is 1.2 RB ATTs vs 47 RB Targets. Big difference.

  • The ALL IN RB Rushing Teams are colorized in Green and are TEN/CLE with LAR/PIT/NYJ/MIN/LAC/DEN/ARI being elevated as well in rushing. 
  • The Pass Happy RB Teams are BAL/SF/NYG in Red
  • The bar graph below the table emphasizes the extremes in the data. 

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Team Level Rushing Attempts vs Targets with Averages. 

It is important to determine each RBs activity in rushing vs pass-catching. Observing the trends is essential for considering this week’s performance. 

These tables contain

  • Team

  • Player

  • Rush ATTs Weeks 1 to 5

  • Rushing Atts Totals

  • Targets Weeks 1 to 5

  • Target Totals

  • Red Stars mark a drop vs Green Stars an increase. Key

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RB Summary ATTs vs TARGETS vs. % Rushing and % Pass-Catching (%TR and %TP)

I go through these data tables by asking questions and determining the answers. Each Player must be addressed.

Time intensive for sure. If you want it on a platter you are not reading this then. Its ok because I do these articles for me as well as my readers. It makes me do the work. I tell my students chop the wood then you get the fire not get the fire first then someone produces the wood? 

Let me narrate for example looking at these metrics. Who is each RB? Rusher/Pass Catcher? Both One or the Other or Neither?

ARI- Drake is the Rusher while Edmonds is the pass catcher. I have heard Drake is a bust. He is a 17 ATT a week guy that may be on a team that scores using other positions. I suspect he is a game script bound rusher and has limited use on tough weeks. But now you know that and now you can use him in favorable situations. It is great that you know this as your league mates just know they drafted an RB early and he is not scoring.

Note in BUF, Singletary Owners should worry about Moss as he is the same RB as Singletary. Weeks 1 and 2 they were the same and with Moss out Singletary assumes the complete show. Sell High or be ready for a decline? Estimate the odds of these events.

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RB %TR vs %TP BAR Graph

I stained each player rushing using purple bars vs yellow bars for pass-catching activities. Note balanced RB vs unbalanced RBs. Good to know.

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