CFB DFS Week 3 Preview – Day Slate

What a CFB DFS week it was, and what a week it will be! And it better be because all of my US Open lineups are already in the trash.

As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 10 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine |Total
CIT@CLEM 4:00PM ET|N/A|N/A
APSU@CINCY 12:00PM ET|33.5|52.5
TLSA@OKST 12:00PM ET|23|66
USF@ND 2:30PM ET|25.5|49
UH@BAY 12:00PM ET*|4|61.5
UCF@GT 3:30PM ET|7.5|63
APPST@MRSHL 3:30PM ET|4.5|59
ULL@GAST 12:00PM ET|17|58.5
BC@DUKE 12:00PM ET|6|51.5
NAVY@TUL 12:00PM ET|7|48.5
SYR@PITT 12:00PM ET|21.5|50

*Houston at Baylor has been postponed

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Travis Etienne and Chuba Hubbard at running back. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,383. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before it’s all canceled, let’s get to this week’s path to CFB DFS glory!

Jeff Sims | QB | Georgia Tech $5,300

I’m fairly certain in the fringe DFS contests that the lovely staff over at DraftKings are pure fucking geeks that know nothing about football, and never watch it. This is a great example proving that very scientific theory.

When Sims was announced as the starter early Saturday last week, I jumped all over it at the dirt cheap $4,500 price tag and it returned rock solid value at nearly 20 DK points. And, that came in his very first start where he played very erratic with a couple of bad interceptions. Simply put, any dual threat starting quarterback with this Florida native’s floor/upside combination should be 7k at least which he will be in the weeks to come.

Until then, it’s our obligation to pounce on these circumstances. After all, he was the quarterback in last week’s lineup that took the day GPP contest down. True story.

While you’re at it, arguably Tech’s best wideout Jalen Camp is severely mispriced. With Sims now set to run the Yellow Jackets new look spread offense, Camp’s 5-57 line from a week ago is a reasonable floor expectation moving forward. I demand you join me in making the DK staff pay for these egregious errors and…

Also, if CFB DFS isn’t enough and you need action on the game itself, I think Tech is a live dog with the points and outright. Don’t be scurred.

Jordan Addison | WR | Pittsburgh $3,500

Along with those two, this freshman slot receiver will be a core part of my plans Saturday afternoon. In his debut against the Governors of Austin Peay, he notched a 7 catch day for 35 yards. Yes. I am aware it’s Austin Peay. But, I think it’s more of a sign of things to come and I’ll tell you why.

First of all, that production came in Pitt’s first five possessions so this is not a case of an underclassman getting some run in an early season blowout. He’s an immediate impact guy that has a solidified role in the offense. That brings me to my second point.

Taysir Mack will likely turn out to be the clear WR1 with Maurice Ffrench off to the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. However, he does not profile as the type of wideout to fill Ffrench’s very specific role in the offense. Mack is the prototypical big outside receiver that will haul in jump balls and back shoulder throws. Ffrench was the classic slot “get him the ball in space” explosive YAC machine that produced a 96-850-4 line in his final season at Pitt in 2019.

In my opinion, they want to plug-and-play Addison into that exact role. The fact that he also had a 15 yard run against the Governors also suggests that they are making a point to get him the ball. It all adds up to this being my favorite price/floor/upside combo meal of the slate.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

You already know how I feel about the price on Sims. Besides him, I think Tulsa’s Zach Smith is worth considering. He’s in an offense that returns almost every starter, and all of it’s significant position players from a year ago. As almost four touchdown underdogs, he also have very positive game script projections for garbage passing stats to pile up in the second half.

On that same note, both Keylon Stokes and Sam Crawford Jr. are solid value plays at receiver for the Golden Hurricanes. Each proved last season that they are capable of putting up yuge stat lines numerous times. Stokes himself had a 7-109-1 line in this same matchup last year.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

For this board, I am paying up at running back sans Travis Etienne. I love him as a player, but I fear what the Citadel game flow could do to his ceiling. For that reason, I want as much Chuba, Kyren Williams, Gerrid Doaks, and David Bailey as my lineups can handle. Each one has the perfect cowbell role, lower game flow risk, and plus matchup blend that I am willing to pay top dollar for this week.

CFB DFS Podcast

For a full game by game preview of the slate, check out the link to my podcast below. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Don’t forget to download, subscribe, leave a rating and/or review. Enjoy!

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 3 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

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