CFB DFS Week 2 Preview – Day Slate

I guess CFB DFS is happening? Maybe it’s entirely insane. Or, maybe it will work out alright. Maybe… Just maybe… I’ll be allowed to see Tenet in a movie theater this year? Regardless, it’s fucking on! For now at least. And so will I be as long as games are being played and contests are available.

As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
SYR@UNC 12:00PM ET|23|65.5
DUKE@ND 2:30PM ET|20|54
EKU@WVU 12:00PM ET|40.5|55.5
ULM@ARMY 1:30PM ET|21|54.5
GT@FSU 3:30PM ET|12.5|52
ULL@ISU 12:00PM ET|11.5|57
ARST@KSU 12:00PM ET|10.5|54.5

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Sam Howell and Dazz Newsome stack. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,533. This is the price range I will focus on each week. Before it’s all canceled, let’s get to this week’s blueprint for CFB DFS domination!

Charlie Kolar | TE | Iowa St. $4,500

Ahhh yes. The classic early season DK misprice. In all fringe fantasy sports, it’s key to simply ensure up front that values released on any DFS platform are in line with assumed projections. When I performed this exercise for each team on this slate, Chucky K immediately jumped out.

Any way you want to slice it, this Oklahoma native is one of the best pass catching tight ends in the country. His 51-697-7 line (team lead in TDs) from a year ago solidified him as quarterback Brock Purdy’s two, or 2A option in the passing game. Now, with the other top options from 2019 in Deshaunte Jones and La’Michael Pettway off to the pro ranks, Kolar should see an increased role and the stats to go with it.

With elite quarterback play in Purdy, and being one his most trusted targets, Kolar should be safe for 5-7 catches, 60ish yards, along with solid touchdown upside most weeks. Get in now at this price and I can promise you…

Xavier Hutchinson | WR | Iowa St. $4,900

After reviewing the field for DK errors, the next step is digging in on freshman that project to be immediate impact players and JUCO transfers. The latter is what we have in this selection. Because no one knows for certainty what to expect out of the gates from these players in terms of opportunity, and how they’ll respond to said opportunity, the prices start off modest. This dynamic brings possibly the most important aspect of any predictive process–speculation.

Per the google, head coach Matt Campbell, teammates, and pretty much everyone else on earth familiar with Cyclone football is hyping the shit outta this guy. So much so that I am joining in on the party.

And, why not? He’s already been named a starter with the aforementioned huge holes to fill at receiver with an NFL level quarterback. Along with Kolar, this is the exact type of floor/ceiling/price combo to target every week. In the case of Hutchinson especially, all those terms like “game breaker” and “playmaker” that is being used to describe him, it sounds like he could outperform his price in one play.

But, back to the point of this step. It’s about identifying these situations and being willing to speculate that they’ll hit. Because by the time the next contest rolls around, the price will be adjusted, and the potential return on your precious CFB DFS dollars becomes diminished.

Peter LeBlanc | WR | Louisiana Lafayette $4,400

Sticking in Ames, another aspect that current prices do not always take into account is injuries. In year two of head coach Billy Napier’s program, the Ragin’ Cajuns had their best season in school history, and finished with a top-10 ranked offense nationally. A major part of that success was the stellar play of Levi Lewis (26-4 TD/INT ratio) at quarterback, and his bona fide WR1, Ja’Marcus Bradley. With Bradley off to the pro level and the recent news of the team’s second leading receiver in 2019 out for this year, someone has to step up in wide receiver room.

This true sophomore was already expected to have an increased role after posting a 28-344 line along with four scores, which was good for second best on the team in 2019. Coming into his second season, he is now viewed as a leader in the locker room with high expectations on the field.

The void left by Bradley’s production alone, would have already expanded LeBlanc’s production significantly by default. Now with the injury to Bell, his weekly floor projects to be raised in a range that warrants a price closer to $5,500. Before DK notices all this, lock him up weekly.

Dart Throws

Onto probably my favorite portion of the show. Getting DEEEEEEP in the rosters and google to find hope in the form of a bare minimum priced chance at CFB DFS glory. This week, I have a couple of offers I think you’d be interested in.

The first one comes at West Point. In their opener last week, Army true freshman Tyrell Robinson quietly lead the team in rushing with 94 yards on nine carries. That included the team’s longest rush of the day for 37 yards. It’s also notable that most of this production was in the first half when the game was still in question. Conclusion: The young man appears to have a solid role in the backfield of an offense that never throws the ball. Robinson’s $3,400 price tag will be hard to resist in another fruitful matchup against Louisiana Monroe.

What about a tight end that has yuge upside potential with very little downside risk? Kansas State’s Briley Moore is precisely that. The Northern Iowa grad transfer was a stud at the FCS level and now has one final season at a Power-5 school to boost his NFL stock.

His new coaching staff is already suggesting he’ll have an immediate role in the offense. The same offense that desperately needs help from the tight end position that barely had any production to speak of last year.

Listen. I know it’s a risk. But, you can trust me. Remember last season when I kept pimping Houston receiver Tre’von Bradley? He was always a bagel proof, big-play-waiting-to-happen type profile that paid off tremendously one week. I’m telling you, I can will these 3k range plays into existence. It’s like Leo says…

Fading Quarterback Chalk

Speaking of having so few, this would not be the kind of slate I would divest in quarterbacks. However, there is one situation that may be worthy of consideration.

Georgia Tech has not named their starter. As a 3:30 kick off time, it’s not likely we will know who is getting the nod before lineups lock. But, if you are willing to take the risk, I think either option has a reasonable chance to outperform their respective price.

The Florida St. defense was a mess all of last season. Getting an entire new coaching staff and system without any real offseason to implement it, isn’t going to help the cause.

On the flip side, Yellow Jacket head coach Geoff Collins is in year two of stripping away the triple option identity for his more modern spread offensive system. James Graham was inconsistent running the show for Collins in 2019, but did put up some solid DK performances when the right matchup presented itself.

Reportedly, the job is between him and true freshman Jeff Sims. The Florida native’s talent is intriguing. He was recruited as one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in the country. Is it intriguing enough to play him? No.

Although, it’s certainly something to monitor for future the weeks ahead. Assuming the world hasn’t ended yet, that is.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

It’s Breece Hall. He has everything you could ask for. A 20 touch floor, great quarterback play, solid matchup, and he’s effective as a receiver. Also, like most underclassmen, shouldn’t we assume he’s gotten better from his freshman year?

CFB DFS Podcast

For a full game by game preview of the slate, check out the link to my podcast below. It is also available on every major podcast platform. Don’t forget to download, subscribe, leave a rating and/or review. Enjoy!

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 2 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: