Non-PPR Rankings Landscapes Part 1
Non-PPR Rankings Landscapes. The approach I use to do my pre-draft research is shown in my 3 articles in my Dynasty Start-Up and Best Ball. I included links to those articles for your use. In Summary, I use ADP based positional landscape mapping by rounds of 4. I next use a team level investigation of teams and positions with my fantasy rankings (FPR) as well as uncertainty rankings (UNC). Finally, I present my player level FPRs and UNC analysis in team environments and positional classification.
This article will present my ADP-Positional landscapes and team level metrics to set the draft tables for Non-Leagues. The main issue is WR vs. RBs values are going to be different vs. within a PPR league setting. The Landscapes will show these differences.
3 Key Questions using ADP Data
(Always Questions, Analysis and then Conclusions leading to further questions) QACs System!
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- Where are the trends, runs, and waves of picks for positions?
- What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Uncertainty?
- What is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings?
Non-PPR Rounds 1 to 4 Positions by ADP
Non-PPR Rankings Landscapes. Using the landscape below, we can see a strong RB presence being drafted in the first round. 9/12 are RBs vs. 3 WRs are gone by round 1 of Non-PPR leagues.
Looking across the 4 rounds, 22 RBs, 19 WRs, 3 QBs, and 4 TEs are all gone by the end of round 4! If you wanted one of the top 3 QBs or TEs, you would have to draft and reach for them. I note 2 RB runs within the first round and starting in the 24th pick to mid 4th. I am interested to see in round 2 WRs 4 of them only are taken. That seems lower than I would have thought vs. 3rd round with no QB/TEs taken. Note the 2 waves in 2 vs. 4 rounds.
The pattern is RB/ WR/(RB/WR)/WR. Note the pattern if case you wish to go contrary.
Non-PPR Rounds 5 to 8 Positions by ADP
Non-PPR Rankings Landscapes. We now move the next 4 rounds to 5 to 8. As I look across the RB vs. WR positions, seem about the same going to round 9 (38 WRs vs. 37 RBs gone). These positions seem steady and less run-like (clustered).
I note that 10 QBs and TE are also gone. At this point, you have already take a QB/TE or both or are looking into later round drafting. I would, therefore, expect the deeper QB and TE to be looked at depending on the flow of the draft. In other words, keep track of the QBs and TEs and see the actual numbers drafted in the first 8 rounds.
The pattern is WR/WR/RB/WR.
Non-PPR Rounds 9 to 12 Positions by ADP
In these rounds, WRs are up in draft numbers. We see 17 WRs vs. 10 RBs, which is a significant increase. The shift is due to an easier to see WR production for 2020 vs. now looking at RBs buried in the depths of their teams. We need chaos to free the RBs. I suggest looking for RBs the fit the bill as cuffs or next man up guys. WRs are easy to get players that seem to have a piece of the team targets.
In the TE and QB, we have 15 TEs and 19 QBs gone by round 12. Drafters are taking 2 QBs and looking at crucial streaming options in these rounds, whereas those thoughts are not within the TE position as much. I might go 2nd QB and TE as well by these rounds. Note the DST draft is happening in here, and folks are compelled to take one. I well wait for BUF etc. for my picks.
The pattern is WR/(RB/WR)/WR/WR
Non-PPR Rounds 13 to 16 Positions by ADP
In these rounds, RBs are back in play, and they are drafted 14 RBs vs. 15 but still behind in the timing. Also, note the RB in round 15. Anticipate that either going into it or during that run. We have 71 WRs vs. 61 RBs gone by round 16.
The QBs are at 25 QBs vs. 21 TE taken by round 16. Most drafters will have 2QBs for sure with a 3rd QB taken while at best, 75% will have 2 TEs. Kickers start in round 13, and 10 DST are gone.
The pattern is WR/(RB/WR)/RB/WR
Uncertainty is not the same as risk. Risk assumes we know all the variables while uncertainty does not. Its uncertainty levels best consider FF. We know we are going to wrong 40% of the time. Still, I attempt to define where I believe higher uncertainty occurs. I use uncertainty then to research players and team positions. You need to move toward less uncertainty in my selections.
The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:
- In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome. In contrast, in uncertainty, you cannot predict the likelihood of the next result.
- Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
- Risks can be measured and quantified, while uncertainty cannot.
- You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty, you cannot.
Conclusion: Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them. Managing risk is more manageable because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
*https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs.uncertainty
I think the issue for Fantasy Football is better described as uncertainty. I have previously outlined some steps to mitigate uncertainty. On average, the level of uncertainty goes up in a draft, so your process must change as you go into the selections. Knowing the positional patterns helps as well as team usages of positions and the pecking order within the team.
Team Level Uncertainty Scores based on Non-PPR Scoring
The Tablualr Metrics below highlight, teams with high vs. low uncertainty. You should move to low uncertainty teams and their more in-depth players, especially in later rounds of the Non-PPR drafting.
BAL, NYJ, PIT, DEN, IND, MIA, and NE are the teams with players with high uncertainty status. I suggest more in-depth research on the deeper players on these teams. The last teams with low uncertainty are GB, BUF, ATL, PHI, NYG. And SEA. Move to more in-depth players on these teams later in the draft.
Positional Level Uncertainty Scores based on Non-PPR Scoring within Teams.
I like to move top-down in my data analysis. I believe most FF players go bottom-up! There are two ways to think about doing a data science project – bottom-up and top-down.
Bottom-up means that you start by thinking about the actual data set that is available. Top-down means that you start by thinking about questions that you want to be answered. Both are equally valid, useful, and helpful to think about. Sometimes you’ll find that a problem is more tractable with the top-down approach, and other times you’ll find that a problem is more tractable with a bottom-up approach. Regardless of which primary method you take, it’s worth thinking about issues eventually with both ways. * Bottom vs. Top Down
The top-down approach is better aligned with the scientific method.
The bottom-up method of data science tends to be unstructured and exploratory. It lets the data lead to a result, while the top-down approach defines a problem to be solved and constructs an experiment to solve it.
In this sense, the top-down approach is better aligned with the scientific method; however, it can also be relatively costly to design and carry out a proper experiment. Moreover, you need to have enough information at the start of the top-down method to set up the data collection so that you don’t miss any relevant features. On the other hand, while the bottom-up approach makes good use of the available data, it can also take you on the proverbial fishing trip, and you need to take care that you don’t chase spurious results. *Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Data Analysis
Tabular Data Position vs. Uncertainty
Non-PPR Rankings Landscapes. Use the highlighted aspect to focus down to extremes. For example, In ATL, RB has the highest UNC levels. What that is telling us is after Gurley, what do you have? Hard to even get a proper hand-cuff. Note BAL RBs are in the same position, except having multiple players in a predicted RBBC leads to higher Uncertainty levels.
Stroll through the data and note for research the extremes Highest vs. No Concerns. Find those positions and note them as you read the PART2 and PART3 of Non-PPR analysis.
Link to my Rankings Articles
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