Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Part 1

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Part 1

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. I decided to break out from the league type rankings, these landscape metrics I use before my drafts. I suggest you use these metrics to develop a plan you wish to follow. It is good to support an idea until it is not.

I use the graphs to “see” patterns for runs and droughts on a position. I like to consider the levels of each position vs. the rounds each position hits in terms of 12ths. As I have shown, the expectations go down as you get deeper into the draft.

What are the reasons for positional runs or droughts? Does it make sense? Does your style of drafting fit into the regular pattern? For example, I usually go as the public goes well. You are not any different than your league-mates and will need suitable trading or waiver pickups to achieve victory.

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3 Key Questions using ADP Data

(Always Questions, Analysis and then Conclusions leading to further questions) QACs System!

Positional Drafting.

  • Where are the trends, runs, and waves of picks for positions?
  • What are Public Player Rankings with Perceived Uncertainty?
  • What is the current Team Hierarchy of Player Rankings?

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Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes: Positional Drafting ADPs

I use these landscapes to:

  • Plan my draft
  • Consider my emphasis by draft round
  • Think about the reasons for the public pattern of runs and droughts.
  • Prediction of where levels of positions are being drafted. (First 12 of the position etc.).

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Rounds 1 to 4

For example, in round 1, I expect RBs to move to WRs. Expect the first 12 RBs gone by early 3rd and WR by the beginning of the 3rd round. 2 QB and 3 TE gone by the end of 3/4 rounds. Chart the draft and use that during the draft. I also plan my draft using these landscapes to see when to draft QB, TE, or DST, etc.

Historically, Dynasty Players Acquire WRs for more long-term while RBs are figured as short-term. This trend, however, makes it tough to trade for “hot” RBs as they are seen as scarce resources. I suggest a balance to acquire RBs as well as WRs. Then in a later round, focus on your plans. In the first 4 rounds, 26 WRs are gone vs. 17 RBs.

That differential metric supports the need for RBs early in dynasty start-up. Players are taking a top RB then grabbing 2 WRs or 3 WRs. WR runs are occurring after the 8th pick to the 24th pick and start back in a WR run from 30 to 48th pick. Strong hints of an RB WR RB WR pattern. The opposite would be WR RB WR RB to fight the draft pattern.

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide1

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Rounds 5 to 8th

Note early 5th, we see a rush to RBs for balance. Concerns of not having 2 RBs here. The QBs and TEs are taking off in these rounds. Players have 2 WR 2RB or so and not need a TE and QB. If you can collect a late QB or TE, that can yield advantage vs. the crowd.

RB/WR/RB/WR is the underlying patter, but the numbers of QBs have gone from 2 to 8 more as 10 QBs are gone by the 8th rounds. The TE also increased from 3 to 6 more for 9 TEs gone by the 8th rounds. Pressure on taking a QB/TE here.

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide2

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Rounds 9th to 12th

WR drafting continues strong toward the 13th round. 64 WRs are gone by the end of 12 rounds. Note the RB lags as only 45 RBs are gone. I propose its harder in Dynasty to “see” RBs lasting, and thus these later RBs seem to be worth less than the longer-lasting WRs. Dynasty players can not predict RB lifespans etc. They can not move away from the concern of uncertainty.

TEs are also moving, and by the 12th round, 16 TEs are gone while 18 QBs are gone. QBs are beginning to take as QB2 types, as are TEs. Dynasty rosters are going to be 2 deep in QB and 2 TEs. Also, I expect a slight bias to WRs with 1 to 3 more WRs vs. RBs.

The pattern is WR/(WR-RB)/ WR/QB. Again the bounce between RBs and WRs occurs. Given this, I suggest in-depth research into the 37th RBs and up to select into a pool of players that will seem to have flaws. Work through that haze to line up some RB targets.

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide3

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Rounds 13th to 16th

WRs continue to be drafted within these 4 rounds. 78 WRs and 51 RBs gone by 16 rounds. Again, drafters are seeing WRs futures and investing in them. I would consider WR handcuffs etc., in this range, for example, R Gage in ATL is being left on the draft board, etc. Go through the depth charts and find the key next player up WRs.

TEs are at 24 TE deep (2 per team), while QBs seem to be closer to 3 per team, with 38 QB gone by round 16.  Note the runs of DSTs in the 15th rounds. The pattern is WR/WR/DST/(WR or DST)

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide4

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Uncertainty Analysis Team Level for Dynasty Start-Up Drafting

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Uncertainty is not the same as risk. Risk assumes we know all the variables while uncertainty does not. Its uncertainty levels best consider FF. We know we are going to wrong 40% of the time. Still, I attempt to define where I believe higher uncertainty occurs. I use uncertainty then to research players and team positions. I move toward less uncertainty in my selections.

Note the Teams highest in uncertainty are colorized in red vs. low uncertainty in green within a start-up dynasty environment.

The team issues are exposed to these metrics. What is the cause? Should you modify plans for your start-up draft? I suggest these UNC metrics are a good tie-breaker in close decisions.  Interestingly, The weaker teams can have a few stars and a lot of scrubs, etc. Stronger teams can have more stars and mid-level players vs. scrubs. Watch and research into these metrics.

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide5

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Uncertainty Analysis Team Positional Level for Dynasty Start-Up Drafting

I included these metrics to further enhance the team views, and by using the annotation, I hope to add caution to your drafting, especially from spots that have higher uncertainty.

Teams with excellent UNC levels are CLE, KC, NYG, and PHI. Teams with high UNC levels using these metrics are LAR, NO, NE, ARI, HOU, MIA, and MIN. Study these teams. I suggest moving to the better UNC teams for drafting depth and later in the rounds. Research.

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide6

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide7

Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide8

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Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Slide10

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Dynasty Start-Up Landscapes. Part 1

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Important Links

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My textbook is up on Kindle for sale. 2200 pages of an action-packed metric-based tome. Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts July 2020 Edition: Crush your Fantasy Football Leagues [Print Replica] Kindle Edition by John Bush (Author)

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts

Kindle Book Cover Figure 2020

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