CFB DFS Targets Week 12 Day Slate

Alright, now that we all know Myles Garrett is a crazy person, it’s time for another CFB DFS Saturday afternoon! Ahead, a couple of contest minimum players of interest, running back bonanza, and the requisite hot takes mixed into to a wonderful college football board.

As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
KU@OKST 12:00PM ET|17.5|67.5
STAN@WSU 4:30PM ET|11|63.5
MEM@UH 3:30PM ET|10.5|70
BAMA@MSST 12:00PM ET|18|61
UT@ISU 3:30PM ET|7|65.5
WAKE@CLEM 3:30PM ET|34|59.5
UGA@AUB 3:30PM ET|3|41
IU@PSU 12:00PM ET|14.5|54.5
TCU@TTU 12:00PM ET|3|55.5
UF@MIZZ 12:00PM ET|7|51
MSU@MICH 12:00PM ET|13.5|44.5

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Gainwell. What I will do is point out that rostering the expensive duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,467.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. Onto my one amazing target!

Whop Philyor | WR | Indiana $4,900

As I’ve mentioned here before, it’s always been one of my CFB DFS dreams to be on the right side of one this guy’s monster stat lines for a slate. In three of their last five outings in conference play, Philyor has demonstrated the tremendous upside he’s capable of, recording three double-digit catch games, while gaining over 140 receiving yards in those same contests.

Peyton Ramsey #12 of the Indiana Hoosiers throws a pass while under pressure against the Penn State Nittany Lions in the third quarter of the game at Memorial Stadium on October 20, 2018 in Bloomington, Indiana. Penn State won 33-28.
(Oct. 19, 2018 – Source: Getty Images North America)

But, what about the floor you say? Honestly, I’m not really concerned with a game that projects to have the right script for Peyton Ramsey throwing, and a PSU secondary that was slightly exposed last week, when Tanner Morgan was carving them up. Besides, I care way more about floors when I’m paying the premium prices.

Running Back Board

Which brings me to my main take away for this slate. I’m not messing around at the running back position. No one knows what is going to happen. We’re all speculating each week like security traders on Wall Street. It’s taking the information available and assessing it with critical thought, to lead ourselves to a logical decision.

That said, whether it’s game projections or uncertainty from injury situations, there is a much stronger case to avoid certain players at this position. And, it starts with the head-line game of the day.

As the Vegas total suggests, the Georgia/Auburn tilt wreaks of a vintage 20-17 SEC battle. Add to that the 3:30 EST kickoff, the chances of us having any definitive news by the early games start on Boobee Whitlow’s status is highly unlikely.

Same circumstances are taking place with Kenneth Gainwell in Memphis. Even if Patrick Taylor Jr. does suit up, my guess would be that Gainwell maintains a significant enough role to have a productive day. But, do I want to pay his price to find out? No thanks.

On the other side in that same game, it’s a total guessing game right now as to what the determination on Mulbah Car’s impending redshirt is, and who will benefit if it goes into effect Saturday. With that late kickoff time, I’ll let someone else make a decision here.

Ta’Zhawn Henry #26 (Source: Getty Images North America)

In an early kickoff, we should have some clarity surrounding the Texas Tech backfield. If SaRodorick Thompson is unable to go, there probably isn’t a better value than Ta’Zhawn Henry on the board. If Thompson does play, good luck speculating on how this plays out.

Risk Reduction

In the tougher matchup department, Stevie Scott III, Kylin Hill, and Larry Rountree are stay aways for me, at their prices. I would say the same for just about every position player in the MSU/UofM game.

I like the talent in the Penn State and TCU backfields, but the work loads are all over the place week to week. Plus, it’s getting late in the CFB DFS season now. At this point, my heart can’t take paying the price for Darius Anderson, then watching the Horned Frog offense line up Sewo Olonilua in the wildcat formation on the goal line.

It doesn’t mean that any of those aforementioned spots can’t workout. Could D’Andre Swift put up a Clyde Edwards-Helaire type line that he had in a relatively low-scoring affair against Auburn? Yes. The point is that I believe based on matchup, game projection, and price that there are better, more risk adverse places for my $7,600 to be invested.

Dart Throws

But, if you like to live on the wild side and reap the rewards of hitting on a low percentage owned player, I do have a couple of deep cuts for your consideration. Houston sophomore receiver Tre’von Bradley has started to carve out a role as quarterback Clayton Tune’s consistent big-play threat, averaging 22 yards gained on his eight catches, over their last three games.

Clayton Tune #3 (Photo: Leslie Plaza Johnson, Freelancer / Contributor)

Additionally, his 63 yard grab in the first quarter a couple of weeks ago was what setup Mulbah Car’s short yardage touchdown run. That early involvement in the game, is what really sells me the most here. Knowing that, I have supreme confidence Bradley has a zero-proof floor with legit upside, in the highest projected scoring game on the board. Speaking of Car, if any news drops in time about Houston’s backfield situation, Patrick Carr should also be considered a top dart throw candidate for this slate.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

Speaking of more Houston Cougar football, it’s Tune and I don’t think it’s close. Does it make me a bad person for the fact that I’ve spent more time with American Athletic Conference football teams than my one month-old niece?

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

Probably. But, I think she’ll understand when she gets older and I can explain to her that all of my hard work afforded me the services of Chuba Hubbard, Max Borghi, Breece Hall, and Devin Duvernay in the same lineup.

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 12 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!

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