CFB DFS Targets Week 3 Day Slate

With a rather unimpressive board of games for Week 3, CFB DFS has never been more essential for curbing our fantasy appetites before the big boys kickoff on Sunday. The good news: My comprehensive preview is available to help! Below, I’ll discuss the merits of Tulsa’s offense, and how that Spider–Man pointing meme perfectly describes some wide receivers for this slate.

As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 12 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
OKST@TLSA 3:30PM ET|14|64
OSU@IU 12:00PM ET|16.5|61
BAMA@SCAR 3:30PM ET|25|61.5
[email protected]NW 3:30PM ET|18.5|53.5
[email protected]MSST 12:00PM ET|8|52
[email protected]MSU 4:00PM ET|14|42
[email protected]UCF 3:30PM ET|8|61
[email protected]PSU 12:00PM ET|17|53
USC@BYU 3:30PM ET|4|56.5
IOWA@ISU 4:00PM ET|2.5|44.5
NCST@WVU 12:00PM ET|6.5|45.5
UMD@TEMP 12:00PM ET|7|66.5

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Justin Fields–J.K. Dobbins stack. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,550.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, without further ado, let the Week 3 targeting begin!

Elijah Collins | RB | Michigan St. $3,000

Set it and forget it on this one. Here, we have one of those times where the DK pricing algorithm didn’t get the memo on last week’s revelations before releasing the next contest.

In an effort to shake up the offense, MSU head coach Mark Dantonio gave the nod to the redshirt freshman last week against Western Michigan as the starter. To the delight of all Spartan fans, Collins responded with a 17-192 effort on the ground, that included runs of 24, 29, and 58 yards.

Michigan State running back Elijah Collins #24 (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)

As a friend to the CFB DFS community and a personal hero of mine, Dantonio has already stated Collins will continue to see the majority of the work at tailback heading into their late Saturday afternoon tilt with Arizona St. They should be a tougher test defensively than Western, but the price/guaranteed volume combo alone makes Collins a must start in my mind.

Speaking of the Sun Devils, this might be the week to fade everybody on offense. This Spartan defense looks like they might be better than last year’s elite group, AND stud running back Eno Benjamin just got held in check by an FCS team. Eeeek!

Sam Crawford Jr. | WR | Tulsa $4,600

One guy who still managed to get his against the vaunted MSU defense was this sophomore receiver, with a 5-49-1 line in Week 1. Following their opener, Crawford Jr. established himself as quarterback Zach Smith’s top target amassing a monster 9 catch, 137 yard day at San Jose St.

This week, he should have a wonderful opportunity to continue producing against Oklahoma St. in one of the highest projected scoring games on the slate. Because, the awesome thing about Mike Gundy’s crew on the road is that they’re not very interested in defense. Here is a quick look at OSU’s last six road games:

Opponent|Pts|Pass Yds|WR1 Line
Kansas2824710-89-1
Kansas St.311303-33
Baylor351587-96-1
Oklahoma483498-142-1
TCU311808-91-1
Oregon St.362819-170-2

For Crawford Jr. and the rest of Golden Hurricane offense, it’s fantastic to see the trend carried over from 2018 to this season against Oregon St. What I find even more relevant from this summary is that, outside of Oklahoma, this collection of teams is far from anything special offensively. All that said, I would slightly raise the ceiling on all major contributors in Tulsa’s offense Saturday afternoon

Malik Knowles | WR | Kansas St. $3,600

As consistent with last season, picking up on the younger/lesser known players is a key component in the CFB DFS world. Whether it’s simply DK overlooking someone like Collins above, or not adjusting prices quick enough, it’s incumbent on us to take advantage.

Quarterback Skylar Thompson #10 of the Kansas State (Source: Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images North America)

This wildly talented redshirt freshman just came off a two score performance against lowly Bowling Green. He’s easily the top playmaker that KSU has to offer quarterback Skylar Thompson, and is quickly becoming the WR1 that everyone thought he’d be as a recruit. In fact, according to this 247 Sports piece, Knowle’s 10 catches and two scores recorded before getting redshirt status were the most from any KSU true freshman since Tyler Locket in 2011.

His competition will be stiffer against an SEC team, but Mississippi St. has already allowed lesser opponents to have modest receiving production in their first two contests. Buy now because I have a sneaking suspicion that the next slate we see the Wildcats in, there won’t be a number three appearing after his name.

Besides Knowles, my other favorite floor/ceiling/price play at receiver is Randal Grimes of UNLV. He’s a former 4-star USC recruit that is settling into a similar role as Knowles is with KSU. And, Northwestern could have some depth issues in the secondary.

Ohio St. Offense

After all the preseason coach speak I believed to support my Week 1 suggestion of Demario McCall, we now have more practical material to see what the coaches really think–actual games played! Through their first two contests, it’s clear Master Teague III is the preference to carry the ball when starter J.K. Dobbins is taking a breather.

And, it’s also evident that Justin Fields is as advertised looking like the second coming of Cam Newton. With their Little Ten opener at Indiana having almost an identical Vegas projection as the Oklahoma St. game, this should be the first real opportunity to see which Buckeye receiver will emerge as Field’s go-to guy. For now, all have a reasonable chance to outperform their modest prices in what should be a defenseless HooHooHooHoosieerrr defense.

According to fellow Piggy and Buckeye fanatic, Kyle Robert, Chris Olave is the one if you like speed while K.J. Hill is built for comfort…

According to me, I’ve been trying to be on the right side of a monster double digit catch Whop Philyor game since last season. So far, he’s stayed healthy this season, and leads Indiana in catches (10) and yards (141) through two games.

With their roles, prices, and positive game flow projections, him and Sam Crawford Jr. are like that “two Spider-mans pointing at each other” meme this week.

Iowa St. Offense

And, there might be another receiver joining them. The Cyclones make their 2019 CFB DFS debut in the DK day slate this weekend. One year removed from bursting onto the scene as a true freshman, quarterback Brock Purdy is in need of some new toys after losing David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler to the pros.

So far, all signs point to Deshaunte Jones being Burdy’s most trusted option in the passing game. In their only matchup this season, the senior took in a whopping 14 grabs for 126 yards, and converted several key third-down plays in the overtime win over Northern Iowa.

Iowa State running back Breece Hall #28 (Photo: Matthew Putney, AP)

As for the running backs, it’s a 4-5 headed monster right now, and a wait and see approach is advised this week. However, if you’re into living dangerously, Sheldon Croney Jr. is the senior leader of the group, and has been the most effective in both, the run and pass game. He was also the guy that coaches turned to in crunch time against Northern Iowa.

The shiniest piece in the bunch is freshman Breece Hall, who chose the Cyclones over in-state rival Iowa and Michigan. The murky situation and game that feels like a race to 20, will likely drive down ownership percentages, so there is some decent GPP value here at dirt cheap prices.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

I don’t think this is the CFB DFS slate to fade the top three, but similar to the Juice’s If I Did It (yup that’s real), I’d skip over every quarterback until IU’s Michael Penix Jr. (or whoever starts for IU). Continuing the theme of targeting the same two games, I’d take Tulsa’s Zach Smith over most of the guys in the 6.5-8k range, as well.

Yet, the the ultimate pivot in this slate would be Dillon Gabriel for UCF. It’s highly unlikely head coach Josh Heupel will reveal who is starting prior to kickoff, but I’d put my money on Gabriel keeping the job full-time until he proves he can’t handle it. Regardless, even in part-time duty, he would have value at his price against a Cardinal secondary that was just torched by USC’s backup last week.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

You’ve probably guessed it by now, but with all the affordability offered up from the targets above, you can bet your ass I’m Cowboying the fuck up baby! All CFB DFS lineups will feature stacks from either OSU or THEE Ohio St. University. Free preview of me in my living room Saturday…

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 3 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with previous week CFB DFS Recaps!

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