CFB DFS Targets Week 1 Day Slate

The CFB DFS main Saturday slate is finally here! To paraphrase a fellow enthusiast, my eagerness level is probably beyond rational, but what else can we really get this excited about doing that is legal or potentially breaking a marital vow? No words can better describe what football season being back really feels like.

As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 10 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
DUKE@BAMA 3:30PM ET|34|58
FAU@OSU 12:00PM ET|27|64
MISS@MEM 12:00PM ET|6|68
BALL@IU 12:00PM ET|17|59
VT@BC 4:00PM ET|4.5|57
MSST@ULL 12:00PM ET|20|60
SCAR@UNC 3:30PM ET|10|63
NW@STAN 4:00PM ET|6.5|49
ECU@NCST 12:00PM ET|17|54
TOL@UK 12:00PM ET|12|62

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields. What I will do is point out that rostering the quarterback duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,300.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, let’s stop wasting time and pretend like everything I wrote for Thursday never happened. The first CFB DFS Saturday slate is here!

Keilan Robinson | RB | Alabama $3,000

Yep, it’s that time of year again when I know more about Alabama’s fifth string running back than members of my immediate family. Well… Not fifth string this Saturday.

With first half suspension’s doled out by the Nicktator to Bama’s top two backs, and a season ending injury to top recruit Trey Sanders, redshirt freshman Jerome Ford was the logical choice to benefit. Then, this happened. Now, it’s anyone guess who will benefit the most from this situation, but correctly guessing errrrrrrrrr speculating on low owned players is what separates your lineups from the pack the most.

(Photo: Complex.com)

Sure, it’s just one half. But, we all know what Alabama can do in that time. If Kelly Kapowski was guaranteed to be Bama’s feature back in this circumstance, she’d be worth a CFB DFS look at this price. Either way, this is definitely something to monitor until their 3:30 p.m. EST kick time.

Deondre Farrier | WR | East Carolina $5,400

The silver lining of a forgettable 2018 for the Pirates was that they found their quarterback of the future. As a true freshman, Holton Ahlers proved to be immediately productive as a passer and runner when inserted as full-time starter, even in losing efforts.

The main benefactor of the upgrade was senior receiver Trevin Brown, who put up some monster lines as Ahlers go-to target. With him off to pursue pro ball, Farrier is in line to be the top option in new head coach Mike Houston’s wide open scheme. And, before getting hurt last season, he proved to be reliable when Ahlers looked his way.

In the two games they played together after Ahlers went to full-time duty, Farrier produced an impressive 11-185 line in lopsided losses. As 17 point underdogs Saturday, it’s likely game flow will provide some juicy garbage time for Farrier and fellow receivers to pile up meaningless grabs. Regardless of what Vegas thinks, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were able to move the ball anyway.

Ahlers is just a legit college quarterback on any field. In Houston’s shotgun heavy scheme, he and the offense are going to be a tough out no matter who is on the other side. My gambling addiction tells me they’ll be a live dog Saturday at in state rival N.C. State.

With the immediate numbers he was able to put up with Farrier last year, I believe he’s severely undervalued here without Brown around. In my humble opinion, he has the upside to finish in the top-10 at his position for the slate.

Along with him, ECU receivers Blake Proehl, and Mydreon Vines should return solid value. A great dart throw candidate is junior college transfer tight end Zech Byrd. He’s a former 3-star Florida recruit with googlable potential.

Demario McCall | RB | Ohio St. $3,400

Did someone say four touchdown favorites? Yes, Vegas did. If they get pretty close to being right, this could be the career opportunity for what McCall, and many Buckeye fans, have been waiting for.

After a four year career of nagging injuries, position questions, and empty hype, the redshirt junior has locked up the primary backup at running back to J.K. Dobbins. And, he will also be used at times as a pass catcher in the H-back role, where he flashed big play ability last season.

Demario McCall (Getty Images)

In OSU’s two tune up games last season, non-starting running backs accumulated 137 yards and two scores on 22 rushes in mop-up duty. And, that’s talking the third and fourth stringers. If they treat Dobbins/McCall closer to the way the Dobbins/Mike Weber split worked–who knows??–he could be in for a 15 touch day in a dream matchup.

Not to mention, there’s a cluster fuck at running back everywhere on this slate. Whether it’s tough matchups or unpredictable work loads, I want no part of paying $4,500-5,500 for any tailback on Virginia Tech, UNC, Duke, Ball St., Louisiana, or South Carolina. At this price, give me McCall all day instead.

Kind of related side note: If you’re luke warm on the chalky running backs, or prefer spending up at other positions, this slate presents several high volume guys at mid-level prices. Isaiah Bowser and Cameron Scarlett should both be good for 20 touches in their game. And, A.J. Rose and Ricky Person are on the list for best floor/upside/price combos at RB for the slate.

Back to McCall. Make sure to check his status before the game. Marcus Crowley would be my pivot if he gets ruled out.

Florida Atlantic Offense

Speaking of being down by many points, there could be solid CFB DFS value from Lane Kiffin’s Owls in Columbus. Running Back B.J. Emmons is a former top rated recruit for Alabama when Kiffin was there.

With work horse Devin Singletary onto the NFL, he seems to be the favorite to get first crack at RB1 for FAU in 2019. If so, 15-20 touches isn’t out of the question.

At filthy cheap prices, tight end Harrison Bryant and receiver Willie Wright merit consideration. They are the top returning pass catchers from last year, and will definitely be sophomore quarterback Chris Robinson’s default switches when he’s running for his life.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

This has to be IU’s Michael Penix Jr., who recently won the starting job for the opener over incumbent Peyton Ramsey. Simply put, he has the talent, weapons and matchup to do major CFB DFS damage at a soft price.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

More like running roughshod in Memphis, HEY OOOOOOH! Yea, Patrick Taylor Jr. and Damonte Coxie make the most sense for me if I’m spending the big bucks for obvious reasons.

I also like not-so-chalky Va-Tech’s Damon Hazelton to threaten for top receiver on the board. Friend to a friend, Hokies on the money line is the play of the day.

Good luck for the Week 1 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.


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