This is the week to dive into the CFB DFS pool! With almost no games of actual consequence on the board, creating fake teams to win real money is the best way to consume this snoozer set of games.
And, you’ve come to the perfect place to do just that, my friend! By the time you have finished reading this, you may have laughed, cried, and pondered. Most importantly, you’ll feel ready to attack the slate harder than TNF attacks the quality of it’s own league.
As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
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This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|[email protected]OU 12:00PM ET|||||33.5|||||63|
|LSU@MSST 3:30PM ET|||||18|||||62|
|[email protected]OKST 4:00PM ET|||||4|||||8|
|ISU@TTU 12:00PM ET|||||7|||||57|
|[email protected]CAL 2:30PM ET|||||11|||||51|
|NCST@BC 12:00PM ET|||||3|||||51.5|
|CLEM@UL 12:00PM ET|||||24|||||62|
|ORE@UW 3:30PM ET|||||3|||||48.5|
|MIZZ@VAND 4:00PM ET|||||21|||||56|
|AUB@ARK 12:00PM ET|||||19.5|||||55|
|UF@SCAR 12:00PM ET|||||5|||||47|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Jalen Hurts and Chuba Hubbard. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,450.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. Time to put the house keeping items aside, onto to the targets!
Kam Martin | RB | Auburn $4,600
This is a classic straight DK misfire. With work horse starter Boobee Whitlow remaining out with an injury, the appropriate price adjustments were not made in the Tigers backfield. Martin is expected to have an expanded role against a Razorback run defense that’s… Well. Not good. In fact, it’s fucking awful!
While it looked like they might be improving a few weeks ago, holding Texas A&M running backs to under three yards per carry, the Hogs reverted back to their familiar shitty selves, allowing Kentucky tailbacks to average five yards per tote on the ground. From a matchup, price and game script projection, there isn’t much of a negative spin here for Martin. Or, is there?
We all know by now that football coaches are not concerned about our DFS lineups, or probably even know they exist. Nor, should they.
What the injury to Whitlow really means to the Auburn backfield more than anything is the unknown, opportunity, and potential chaos in terms of who is on the field, and for how long. Yes, Martin is the logical choice to get the start. But, what happens after that is pure speculation.
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And, there has been lots of speculative talk about their massively hyped redshirt freshman, D.J. Williams getting his chance to showcase his talent this week. The contest minimum price makes him the top dart throw on the board in my mind. Either way, this backfield is sure to return tons of value for the day slate, and play a critical role in contests of all formats.
Devon Modster | QB | California $5,700
I usually save these targets for my quarterback section, but I just couldn’t help myself. If this hits in the way I think it could, the lineups I am able to construct as a result, are scarier than our prospects for the 2020 presidential election. Similar to the Auburn backfield, this target has more to do with the opposition than anything.
This Beaver defense ranks as one of the worst Power 5 units in the nation, allowing over 450 yards of offense per game, in 2019. And, they’ve let every Power 5 opponent put up 30 plus points on them.
Now, do I think Modster is any good? Not really. But, that’s not how CFB DFS works.
Listen, I don’t make the odds. I just play on them. And, according to my trusty pal Las Vegas, Modster will be arming an offense that projects to put up 4-5 offensive touchdowns. In this same matchup last year, the Bears offense went for six scores in a 49-7 route in Corvallis.
With the discounted California prices, you can bet that ass a Modster/Christopher Brown Jr. stack will be a big part of my Saturday afternoon. You may want to come along…
Jaylon Redd | WR | Oregon $5,300
As opposed to a matchup play, this is attempting to take advantage of an injury. Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert just lost his top pass catcher in tight end Jacob Breeland for the season. The next man up at his position would likely be freshman Spencer Webb, who has recorded a 7-62-1 line for the season.
However, my guess is that the void left by a player like Breeland this week will mostly come from the guys that Herbert already has trust with, in a tougher matchup at Washington. Redd already has the proven floor, tying Breeland for the team lead in catches (26), and trails him by one for the team lead in touchdown receptions (5).
He’s also that Tarik Cohen type of player that they will look to use in creative ways around the goal line, and get into space. Without Breeland, I think you can nudge his and JJ3’s ceiling up a notch moving forward. I doubt we will see the number five next to either of their names again this year.
Before we get out of that game, graduate transfer Juwan Johnson is worth a mention. If I had to put my money on someone seamlessly slipping into Breeland’s role, it’d be him.
He just returned from an injury for his first game action in a Duck uniform, and pulled in two grabs for 36 yards. The main reason I believe he’s the best candidate to fill the role is his 6’4” 230 lb frame combined with an athletic receiving skill set, is the closest thing they have to match what Breeland brought to the table.
No, I don’t think he’ll be setting the edge as a blocker on run plays like Breeland does at times. But, an expanded role is almost a certainty and his size makes him the natural red zone target solution for Herbert’s Breelandless problem.
Besides him and the aforementioned Auburn situation, Missouri’s Dawson Downing should get his 5-10 allotment of touches at running back, in what should be a very run-heavy script against Vandy. So, maybe a touch more upside for him.
Also, is this the “Lee Morris gets loose on a 75 yard bomb” week? I know that I’ve certainly tried to will it into existence a few times already this CFB DFS season to no avail. But, it’s coming at some point.
Affordable Reliable Stacks
Back to those Missouri Tigers for a moment. Outside of the obvious chalky teams, Auburn and Mizzou are the only other teams that Vegas is projecting to approach 40 points.
With the Auburn running back circumstances a bit murky, there might not be a better week for the Kelly Bryant/Larry Rountree III stack. In terms of price and touchdown predictability, I don’t see a better QB/RB combo out there.
If I wasn’t so enamored the Cali prices, this duo would likely be my main approach for the slate. Additionally, I know this doesn’t make sense. But, is it wrong of me to inflate a running back’s value because of his name? Larry Rountree just sounds like a dude with the kind of bad intentions I would really enjoy. It’s like he missed his calling of playing forward on the 90s New York Knicks.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
The answers are stated above. No further hot takes needed on this.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
I’ll save those for this section. If I believe Modster can get me to 20 DK points (and I do) with potential for a 25-30 point upside, the services of Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow are not needed for this slate. With the savings built up from fading a typically chalky quarterback position and the other targets, I am able to construct lineups where I can look at each spot and reasonably make the case where all eight players could turnout an average of 25 points.
Why 25 points? Glad you asked. That average from eight slots gets you to 200 total DK points. In any contest, with any format, that’s a guaranteed cash with a chance at some high place finishes, depending on the total points supplied for a given slate.
When building your lineups, if you can reasonably come away with that impression, that’s living your best CFB DFS life. Over the past few weeks, I have started to extract the contest results from the DK website, and will provide a more thorough analysis on this in weeks to come. Oh yea, and I have Hubbard and Wallace everywhere because of Modster.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 8 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!