CFB DFS Targets Week 5 Day Slate

Are you, or someone you know, having trouble being a Michigan football fan? Try playing the CFB DFS day slate to help make your Saturdays meaningful again! Sorry. I can’t help myself.

As a Michigan St. supporter, the scene taking place in Ann Arbor right now is way too much fun for me not to drive by a few times with an automatic weapon. It’s probably the only instance I’m not against tighter gun control policy.

Anyway, as always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.

This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.

Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
Game InfoLine|Total
TTU@OU 12:00PM ET|27|70.5
NW@WISC 12:00PM ET|24.5|46.5
MISS@BAMA 3:30PM ET|38|61
WAKE@BC 3:30PM ET|6.5|69
CLEM@UNC 3:30PM ET|27|60
UV@ND 3:30PM ET|12.5|48
ISU@BAY 3:30PM ET|3|55
TA&M@ARK 12:00PM ET*|23|60.5
USC@UW 3:30PM ET|10.5|61
KU@TCU 12:00PM ET|15.5|49
GT@TEMP 3:30PM ET|8.5|49

*Game being played at the Jerry Dome

For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Jalen Hurts and Jonathan Taylor. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,300.

This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, enough about Jim Harbaugh and the Cleveland Browns being more over-hyped than the Mueller Report. It’s CFB DFS target time!

Charleston Rambo | WR | Oklahoma $5,600

I wouldn’t go as far to say this is a Ja’Marr Chase 2.0 situation, but there are parallels. The biggest reason for targeting Chase last week wasn’t that I knew his ridiculous record setting day was coming.

It was because he had, in my mind, the greatest discrepancy between price and upside on the board. Watching LSU’s prime time game at Texas a few weeks back told us everything we need to know about LSU’s offense, and Chase’s role in it.

Charleston Rambo #14 (Source: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America)

Same goes here for Rambo. In a scheme that will routinely undress mediocre opponents with 5-6 touchdowns, give me the receiver that is trending as the 1-1A option all day at this price. Both him and Chase should be closer to 7k, and will be soon. Take advantage now.

Jalen Reagor | WR | TCU $5,900

Speaking of mispriced, when I saw this one, I think it moved. With the emergence of Darius Anderson at tailback, and working in a new starting quarterback, Max Duggan, Reagor’s explosiveness has been hiding quietly in the weeds this season.

While the freshman quarterback’s debut did not go as planned, brighter days appear on the horizon as heavy double digit favorites against the Mad Hatter’s Jayhawks. The only thing that lacked institutional control in this matchup last season was the Kansas secondary, as Reagor went off for a career high 177 yards and one score.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

That may not be indicative of what will happen Saturday, but it’s only a matter of when, not if, the junior wideout cuts loose with Duggan to have monster game. As a breakout performer last year, Reagor finished the season on a tear AVERAGING a 6-100-1 line over the Horned Frogs final seven games. He’s simply too good to stay down for much longer.

Outside The Box

Additionally, my DVR was able to let me in on some context as to Reagor’s lack of production against SMU last week. And, it had nothing to do with neglect in the offense.

He was targeted five times in the first half alone, including a deep ball and two end zone targets that just missed him. From watching, it was apparent that Duggan was amped up in his first start, and was sailing tons of throws to everybody.

They also ran a reverse (13-170-2 rushing line last year) to the Texas native that went for 29 yards, and had him lined up in the backfield for an RPO that got blown up before it could develop. So, although the box score might not reveal it, he was, and will always, be heavily involved in any game plan.

I think the matchup, and another week of experience for Duggan are palatable ingredients to suggest Reagor will get back to his gaudy stat lines against Kansas. In fact, similar to my Razorback stack for last week’s Night Slate, the clearly defined Duggan/Anderson/Reagor pecking order in the offense has TCU as my favorite sneaky stack of this CFB DFS slate. Sooners with a side of Horned Frogs anyone?

Side note: There is speculation Gary Patterson will play Mike Collins a little at quarterback. He’s definitely the more polished passer of the two, but I think Duggan keeps the job full-time unless he’s an utter disaster to start the game.

Isaiah Spiller | RB | Texas A&M $5,100

As mentioned last week on my podcast, DK prices tend to catch up with performance as the season moves along. Right now, that corner is turning a bit so I think it’s becoming imperative to hit big on selections in this range like Chase last week, to gain real edges for your lineups.

In their Week 4 showdown with Auburn, the Aggie’s run game was shut down by the Tiger’s NFL talent rich defensive line. This week, Spiller and time-share mate Jacob Kibodi should have a much easier time against a bad Arkansas outfit, that just allowed over 500 yards of offense, in a home loss to San Jose State.

As huge favorites, game script will likely be in the A&M running game’s favor. Which, in turn, should also benefit Razorback wideout Trey Knox’s chances to keep his stellar season going. All three mentioned are perfect candidates this week to be that mid level selection that hits big.

Notre Dame Offense

Last Saturday night was our first chance to see how the Irish offense would look in a real matchup. The one given coming into the game was that Chase Claypool would likely be Ian Book’s top target with last season’s primary receiver, Miles Boykin, off to the NFL.

While Claypool looked perfectly capable of filling Boykin’s role with a 6-66-1 line, it was tight end Cole Kmet that looked like he was the one primed for the breakout season, leading Notre Dame in catches (9), yards (108), and added a stolen touchdown grab…

His price on DK hasn’t properly adjusted to market conditions, so he’ll be in the mix as that blow up mid-tier guy. I would also like Tony Jones Jr. a lot more at his modest price, but head coach Brian Kelly already called Jahmir Smith probable this week. I’m gonna wait and see on this one.

Dart Throws

Another Irish receiver that has caught at least two Ian Book passes in each game this year is Lawrence Keys III. His role is solidified to the point that he presents a stable floor option that is highly unlikely to return a zero in your lineups. Ditto on R.J. Sneed for Baylor and Taye Barber for TCU.

Back to the Aggies for a minute, freshman receiver Ainias Smith created lots of buzz heading into last week. He ended up scoring a late game touchdown, and Jimbo Fisher talked about needing to get him more involved after the game. Unlike the first three dart throws, I see Smith as more of a high risk/huge reward guy. Oklahoma’s Lee Morris might have something to say here too.

It’s pure speculation to figure out what the hell will happen in the Cyclones backfield. But, that’s kind of what we’re doing in CFB DFS, right?

My top choice would be Sheldon Crowney Jr. as the most likely to get the biggest opportunity as the senior leader. And, because of his superior receiving skills to Kene Nwangwu, have the best shot to return value.

Fading Quarterback Chalk

You could probably guess this from reading above, but Max Duggan would be my top choice for fading the Big 3 at quarterback. Jamie Newman needs to sustain a high floor one more time against some better teams before I pony up at his price.

Jacob Eason #10 (Photo: Drew McKenzie, Sportspress Northwest)

The Huskie’s Jacob Eason has been impressive thus far as Washington’s starter. As I stated on this week’s podcast, I think they put it on the Trojans big time Saturday afternoon. I’d opt for him over most of the menu in the 7-8k range.

Chalk I Can’t Live Without

Swap out last week’s LSU Tigers for the Sooners, and it’s all about trying siphon the projected 6-7 touchdowns from these offenses into your lineups. Clemson and Wake Forrest also present similar options, but, as said above, I need to see the Demon Deacon offense do it on the road against relatively tougher competition before I trust them. Especially, over the Tide and Sooners.

Which brings me to this week’s lesson: Always practice safe CFB DFS. By doing so, you will find the most risk adverse way to cash for this slate starts with Jalen Hurts to Rambo. After that, slide Tua and Najee Harris into your LUs to gobble up all the Bama touchdowns, with various wideout permutations for double up touchdown opportunities from them and the Sooners.

My other favorite approach is to swap out Bama for the more affordable TCU trio, similar to my approach last Saturday night with the Hogs. This allows for some mega chalky Sooner stacks that otherwise aren’t possible when pairing them with Alabama.

Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 5 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!

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