We all know the CFB DFS day slate isn’t enough to pass the time until we lose our minds over another NFL Sunday. That’s why I’m here! Coming up, I shock the CFB DFS community by fading some heavy chalk, and discuss what being a true hero is all about.
As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
|[email protected]UT 7:30PM ET|||||6|||||73|
|ORE@STAN 7:00PM ET|||||10.5|||||57.5|
|[email protected]UGA 8:00PM ET|||||14.5|||||58|
|NEB@IL 8:00PM ET|||||13|||||62|
|[email protected]ARK 7:30PM ET|||||20.5|||||61|
|[email protected]NCST 7:00PM ET|||||19|||||58.5|
|NEV@UTEP 8:00PM ET|||||14.5|||||52|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Sam Ehlinger and Chuba Hubbard. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky combination will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,450.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. Alright, that’s enough. Onto the targets!!!
Reggie Corbin | RB | Illinois $5,600
While the afternoon prices on the chalk cooperate to stack the most advantageous teams, the night contest does not. Believe me. I’ve tried. A lot.
The simple fact is, after trying to harness every juicy yard and touchdown from the OSU/Texas game by throwing each team’s starting QB/RB duo into your lineup, the remaining price per player is $4,400. Even for champion dart throwers such as myself, that’s a tough putt with four positions left to fill.
If you insist (and there is no shame if you do) on being a part of the action in Austin Saturday night, you’re gonna need multiple lineups to cover all the chalk.
From surveying the positions, I can’t really talk myself into any of the mid priced receiver options having the upside to get 80-90% of an A- Tylan Wallace game. But, with Chuba Hubbard at running back, I can.
Now fully healthy, Corbin got his chance to show what he could do with a more bell-cow workload last week against Eastern Michigan. In a losing effort, he shined with an 18-144-1 line, including runs of 35 and 28 (TD) yards. What was that? Did you say that it’s against EMU? And, that Illinois sucks? Correct on all accounts!
However, with the exception of one 63-0 loss to Iowa, Corbin managed an elite 9.3 yards per touch in every other lopsided Small Ten defeat last season. And, that was in part-time duty with awful quarterback play to boot.
In their conference opener at night with hope still in the air for everyone under the Champaign moonlight, the Illini will be looking to ruin Scott Frost’s weekend. Their best chance at doing so is to feed Corbin early and often. Expect a minimum of 20 touches.
Walter Fletcher | RB | Ball State $4,000
Other options at running back that seem substantially undervalued are C.J. Verdell and Zonovan Knight. Considering their guaranteed workload and favorable matchups, I believe their upside is similar to Nebraska’s Maurice Washington (still splitting time) and the Razorback’s Rakeem Boyd.
For deeper plays at the position, this Division II phenom grad transfer is at the top of my list. In his short three game stint with the Cardinals, he’s consistently broken off chunk plays, primarily in the passing game.
As 19 point underdogs, the likely second half deficit could give Fletcher a slight boost as the preferred option when throwing is needed. Either way, he should be safe for 10-12 touches, and he’s the type that only needs one to do the trick.
Also, if you’re like me and think the Irish might have a worse weekend than Antonio Brown, Georgia’s Brian Herrien and Zamir White have potential to be the most shrewd plays of the night. The only real example we have to go on for the Bulldogs tailback workload is opening week at Vanderbilt. That ended up being pretty much a 60/40 split between stud D’Andre Swift and Herrien, with White getting work in the third, when the Bulldogs had a substantial lead.
Who knows? With some random rotations at opportune times and/or unfavorable game flow, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that Herrien comes away the highest scoring Bulldog ball carrier of the night. After all, he’s the one who found the end zone against Vandy.
Trey Knox | WR | Arkansas $5,000
He’s not Tylan Wallace, but this is my top price/floor/ceiling combo of the slate. And, yes. I do believe he’ll compete with every other top wideout on the board for second place.
Why not? The freshman has clearly emerged as the top go-to guy for new starter Nick Starkel over the last two games, collecting a team high in both, catches (12) and yards (178). He also has a dream matchup. And, he’s at the point in his maturation where he is only going to get better. Think Justyn Ross from last year.
Okay. A lite version of that. But, this is a matchup where a talent like him could explode for some tasty CFB DFS carnage.
Real talk: Speculating on Joshua Kelley and Chuba Hubbard last season only worked well because I jumped on the train early while their prices remained pedestrian. If I’m wrong on Knox, I won’t be happy but I’ll live to see the next slate.
Believing in something for logical reasons and not taking the shot to profit from it? Now, that I won’t accept.
Nevada Running Backs
I also won’t accept this running back committee. I’ve been waiting all season for the right slate to play Wolf Pack running back Toa Taua. Problem is, Jaxson Kincaide has played what was thought to be a clear feature Taua role in 2019, into an actual three-headed Wolf Pack in the Nevada backfield.
Their prices, and favorable matchup bode well for solid statistical output. And, the circumstances will likely give them the lesser owned/contrarian advantage for the big contests. However, as discussed with the options above, I’ll be taking my guesses–ERRRRRRRRRR–selections elsewhere Saturday night.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Gotta be newly minted Razorback starter Nick Starkel here. In fact, let’s get to the point for tonight.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
The more I think this slate through (or probably overthink), I’ve settled in on an unfortunate albeit logical and mathematical decision: I am fading the Cowboys for this fine Saturday evening. Not necessarily because I want to, but because my pal Las Vegas makes the case for me.
There are three teams on the board that Sin City is projecting to score roughly 40 points. Oklahoma St. is not one of them.
Besides the Longhorns, Arkansas and N.C. State make up the three teams. Yet, the toll required to get on their freeway is no where near the Park Place rents charged by the Cowboys. And, the Razorbacks might have as much of a defined 1-2-3 as anyone. The difference this week is that they have the matchup for it to pay the dividends that those preferred stockholders know about.
I’m already sold on Knox, and see no reason why Rakeem Boyd wouldn’t be a top challenger to Hubbard for this slate. The only drawback on their upsides is unfavorable game flow.
Even with that assumed risk, if I truly believe the Starkel/Boyd/Knox trio can get me 80% of the output of Sanders/Hubbard/Wallace, with a reasonable chance to match them, I have to avoid getting sucked all the way into the Cowboy/Longhorn vortex. It won’t be easy. It never is.
But, no one said being a CFB DFS hero would be. Tonight, I dine on Longhorns and Razorbacks with a Fletcher appetizer!