Don’t get shot down storming Area 51. Play the CFB DFS day slate on DraftKings instead! Okay. Seriously. Say it happens and the public now has proof of alien life visiting Earth 60-70 years ago. Then what? Exactly. Nothing! We’d all just move on to the DK night slate, of course. Better yet, as the late great Hockney so eloquently responds to NYC detectives asking if he truly understands the levity of his state of affairs…
As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|[email protected]WISC 12:00PM ET|||||3.5|||||45|
|[email protected]BAMA 12:00PM ET|||||39|||||61.5|
|LSU@VAND 12:00PM ET|||||24|||||62.5|
|[email protected]TA&M 3:30PM ET|||||3.5|||||48|
|[email protected]FSU 3:30PM ET|||||6.5|||||61|
|[email protected]MIZZ 4:00PM ET|||||9.5|||||61.5|
|UW@BYU 3:30PM ET|||||6.5|||||52.5|
|UCF@PITT 3:30PM ET|||||12|||||61|
|[email protected]MISS 12:00PM ET|||||2.5|||||41.5|
|[email protected]UF 12:00PM ET|||||14|||||49|
|MSU@NW 12:00PM ET|||||9|||||38.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Tua Tagovailoa and Jonathan Taylor. What I will do is point out that rostering the chalky duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,400.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, the wait is over, let’s storm Week 4 together!
Ja’Marr Chase | WR | LSU $5,700
I missed this one a few weeks back for the Night Slate when the Tigers offense rolled, in their 45-38 win at Texas. For that game, the overhauled LSU offense had it’s first real test drive against power-5 athletes in a hostile environment. And, it was clear: their new shiny vehicle ran as smooth as the advertisements had claimed.
Well, at least it did and will likely continue to against shitty defenses. Which brings us to the Commodores!
I discussed the merits of targeting this immensely pitiful unit in Week 2. If Purdue can put it on Vandy like that without any running game or offensive line to speak of, what is this group of 5-star athletes capable of? I wouldn’t dare speak for the entire CFB DFS community, but I know that I’m willing to pay to find out.
Besides, the prices aren’t even that high. After setting single game career marks for catches and yards against the Longhorns, Chase’s price has barely budged. Also, my boy Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains drastically under priced at running back. Honestly, someone explain to me why his floor/upside combo is worse than any tailback priced above him.
Additionally, with Jonathan Taylor’s matchup being a potential race to 20 against Michigan in their Little Ten opener, I’d gladly pivot to CEH, or many others at his position. But, more on that later.
As stated, a little fear of not knowing what the LSU attack would look like threw me off the scent in Week 2. With my nostrils now full of all the LSU bread baking in the CFB DFS oven, I plan to gorge Saturday afternoon on Tiger stacks everywhere. But, more on that later, as well 😉
Elijah Collins | RB | Michigan St. $4,600
In the endless pursuit of CFB DFS glory, it’s not about what you know, it’s what you can afford! We all understand that getting the most Tigers and Elephants is likely the safest way to cash this Saturday. The real key to victory will be finding the best path to bear those pricey permutations.
Similar to last Saturday, it begins and ends with this guy. Despite head coach Mark Dantonio being non-committal on Collins as the starter moving forward, I do not see a scenario where he isn’t heavily involved in the game plan. And, in their matchup against Northwestern 12-15 touches could be more than enough to provide a statistical output that grossly outperforms his–still too low–price.
In two games this season, the Wildcats surrendered 175 all purpose yards to Stanford running backs (not a good team), then followed up that gem by allowing first half touchdown runs of 65 and 37 yards to UNLV’s Charles Williams. That said, even my Spartan’s ultra offensive offense should be able to get in on the CFB DFS party in Evanston Saturday.
Running Back Value
If they don’t, or if Dantonio rips the collective heart out of every Spartan fan by rolling their version of C.J. Anderson out in the backfield, there is tons of value options at running back for this slate. BYU’s Ty’Son Williams continues to remain slightly under priced after logging back-to-back 20 touch performances.
With their weekly impalement on the schedule, Bama backups Brian Robinson Jr. and top dart throw candidate Keilan Robinson have a shot to see an uptick in workload. It’s worth noting too that Robinson Jr. and starter Najee Harris were practically rotating series in the first half at South Carolina last week. It won’t scare me away from playing Harris, but it does make Robinson Jr. a more intriguing option, knowing he’s in the mix prior to the inevitable whacked out Alabama game script.
Staying with the SEC, last Saturday was our first look at how Texas A&M would handle losing Jashaun Corbin to a season ending injury. Head coach Jimbo Fisher gave the nod to Jacob Kibodi to start, but Isaiah Spiller came in after and was the more effective player. Similar to the TCU duo I wrote about for last week’s Night Slate, Kibodi is more Sewo, while Spiller is the playmaker. He’s also the better receiver of the two. Both should be involved enough to have value this week.
Going a bit further down the CFB DFS RB trough, who’s to say Javian Hawkins doesn’t keep the stellar start to his college career going. The FSU defense showed some improvement last week, but still allowed three rushing touchdowns to Virginia running back Wayne Taulapapa. With a 34-27ish projection from Vegas, him, backfield minority shareholder Hassan Hall, and blazing receiver Tutu Atwell should all have a reasonable chance to realize gains on their modest investment costs.
Last but not least in the bargain running back bin is A.J. Davis for the Pitt Panthers. I was able to watch every dreadful minute of their 17-10 folly of a loss to Penn St. last week.
The box score won’t necessarily show it, but a few of Davis’s seven catches came split out at wide receiver in obvious passing situations, which will likely be vast in supply as 12 point underdogs to UCF. Even if they’re not, and Pitt is able to get the run game going, Davis will be the beneficiary. The main take away is that he’s involved enough in the passing game to remain game flow proof if the UCF onslaught continues.
As far as receivers go, I wouldn’t completely buy into Taysir Mack’s 12 catch day being indicative of things to come. While it was super impressive to watch, 94 yards came on five catches in the final two possessions, three of which were extremely difficult grabs in heavy traffic. Week to week, Maurice Ffrench is still the play here.
Another Panther wideout that saw 4-5 more targets from Kenny Pickett than catches is Tre Tipton. He’s definitely a clear three-3A option in the passing game, but sees enough volume that it is highly unlikely he returns a zero in your lineups. Same goes for South Carolina tight ends Nick Muse and Kyle Markway. They both rarely come off the field and have solidified roles within the Gamecock’s base passing packages, from what I saw watching their first half against Alabama last week.
By the way, that game was much closer in the first half than the score indicated, and South Carolina’s replacement freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski looked relatively competent. He looks both his tight ends’ way enough that they’ll provide a decent floor/price combo in one of the highest projected scoring games on the board.
If you’re looking for someone that can make your CFB DFS day in one play, UCF’s Jacob Harris is your guy. As full-time starter the last two games, quarterback Dillon Gabriel hit the 6’5″ redshirt senior with a 57 yard bomb for his first career touchdown, then a 40 yard grab the following week.
Another receiver I’m trying to temper expectations on (for this week at least) is freshman Ainias Smith for Texas A&M. Because Quartney Davis sat out and it was against Lamar in the second half, it would be foolish to think his 6-66-1 line is the standard moving forward.
However, it’s notable to mention starter Kellen Mond went his way with four consecutive completions on their third possession in the third quarter. Unlike the two primary wideouts, Smith brings a very slick YAC type of skill set that adds a dimension to the Aggie offense that they are in desperate need of. Even with Davis back in the lineup, it would not surprise me to see him used in the first half this weekend against Auburn.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
The aforementioned South Carolina freshman, and Kenny Pickett would be my choice. But, similar to last week, this isn’t the slate to get cute with quarterbacks. That said, Kelly Bryant as a mid level price play may be in the best spot to eat at the same dinner table as Tua and Burrow.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Speaking of those two fine young gentlemen, in every slate there is a limited supply of touchdowns to corral. If you miss out on them, chances are you miss the cash line.
Tua and Burrow are the only quarterbacks running offenses that project to score 5-6 touchdowns, with upside for more. That in mind, I think the safest approach to cash for this slate is stacking the starting QB/RB duos for LSU and Bama in the same lineup. After that, Ja’Marr Chase at wide receiver and Collins in the flex will be my bedrock for what feels like a magical CFB DFS afternoon.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 4 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!