My first CFB DFS Saturday night preview for 2019 is live! The two posts from last week were so bad, I cut myself off from giving any public opinions for the night games. Instead, I decided to lay on the floor alone in a dark room lathered in despair. Like Champ Kind, the people around at the time helped me through it…
As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
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This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 8 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
|LSU@UT 09/07/2019 7:30PM ET|||||6.5|||||57|
|[email protected]AUB 09/07/2019 7:30PM ET|||||17.5|||||51.5|
|[email protected]ORE 09/07/2019 7:30PM ET|||||24|||||61.5|
|[email protected]MSU 09/07/2019 7:30PM ET|||||16|||||46.5|
|UCF@FAU 09/07/2019 7:00PM ET|||||11|||||67.5|
|[email protected]MISS 09/07/2019 7:30PM ET|||||6.5|||||50.5|
|[email protected]TENN 09/07/2019 7:00PM ET|||||4|||||53|
|MIA@UNC 09/07/2019 8:00PM ET|||||5|||||46.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Sam Ehlinger and Joe Burrow. What I will do is point out that rostering the quarterback duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,400.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, enough already. Let’s get to the picks!
Ty’Son Williams | RB | BYU $4,800
Another beneficiary of the graduate transfer portal, the former South Carolina Gamecock now assumes the role of BYU’s starter at running back. For the first game action in new threads, his 7-45-1 line was respectable against one of the top defenses in the nation. According to his offensive coordinator, game flow hurt his intentions of having Williams more involved in Week 1. This week’s opponent should be a perfect fit to follow through on that objective.
The once nationally competitive Tennessee Volunteer football program just got had by the Sun Belt Conference’s very own Georgia St. Panthers in their home opener. And, allowed over 200 yards on the ground in the hilariously embarrassing process. For clarification, 135 yards came from running backs at over four yards a clip.
With Vegas projecting a close game where both teams get into the mid-20s, this is almost my favorite price/floor/ceiling combo of the slate. Almost.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | LSU $5,900
For another grand or so, this is my top choice. In the marquee matchup of the weekend, CEH has everything you want heading into their battle under the lights at Texas Memorial Stadium.
The junior gets his shot at being the primary ball carrier behind a dominant offensive line that returned four starters from last season. Which, is the exact weakness of Saturday night’s opposition.
The slightly below average Longhorn defense from a year ago returns just three starters, and none along the defensive line. That said, this just might be shaping up to be more of a mismatch than this kid with playing cards versus random inanimate objects…
Or, rich people versus Hurricane Dorian. Or, Antonio Brown versus sanity! Ok, I’m done. Hopefully one of those was funny. If not, I’ll try again later. Either way, make sure to slide CEH into your LUs Saturday night.
Willie Wright | WR | Florida Atlantic $4,100
The guy that was supposed to be option 1-B to Harrison Bryant in the FAU passing game posted a scintillating two catch, negative 10 yards line in the opener at Ohio St. Not exactly sure how or why that happened, but, barring injury, I’ll assume Wright’s role will remain safe heading into Week 2.
Vegas puts the Owls on schedule for roughly 30 points against UCF in the highest projected scoring affair of the evening. Primarily used as a possession slot receiver, I think Wright is safe for a 5-6 catch, 60-70 yard floor with moderate upside, considering the Vegas outlook. At this price, that’s enough for me to pull the trigger.
Johnny Johnson III | WR | Oregon $4,500
Contrary to the NFL, part of the fun of playing CFB DFS is that you can still catch players extremely undervalued before DK adjusts their pricing. And, this would be one of those cases.
Coming into the Auburn game, the Duck’s receiving core was exteremly banged up, and it was anyone’s guess who’d emerge as Justin Herbert’s go-to guys. He didn’t lead the way in catches, but Johnson’s 7-98 career line did carry the day for Oregon in receiving yards.
As the night’s biggest favorites projected to score 5-6 touchdowns, the Oregon offense should be rich with CFB DFS implications. If Juwan Johnson is held out again, an encore performance with another career night from JJ3 would not be surprising.
Sal Cannella | TE | Auburn $3,600
The world needs more Sals. Especially, like this one. If you read that story on how this guy ended up where he is, you can’t help but root for him. And, think he’s a bit nuts. But, in a good, innocent way. Not the serial killer way.
After all, a little irrational self-belief does have it’s benefits. Ya know, the Kayne way. Or, perhaps the Conor McGregor way.
On a smaller scale, Cannella’s belief in himself, unrelenting persistence, and ability has taken him from JUCO bouncer nobody to making two 21 yard grabs in front of nearly 7 million people last weekend. That is my analysis for why I like him as one of my top dart throws for the CFB DFS night slate.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
I think sticking in the UCF/FAU matchup makes the most sense if you’re making budget cuts at quarterback. There should be enough scoring on the UCF side to make Brandon Wimbush and freshman Dillon Gabriel have value. Put me down for Gabriel if I had to pick one.
For the aforementioned reasons in the Willie Wright space, FAU quarterback Chris Robinson is in an ideal spot to outperform his price at this position as well. Also, here’s a preview of me from my couch stiffly buzzed Saturday night…
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Gimmie all dem DUCKS! I have nothing against Sam Ehlinger, I’m sure he’s a lovely young man. But, I’ll take Justin Herbert at his price for this slate every time.
After that, this isn’t really a slate full of super expensive options to choose from like the afternoon contest. The gains will come from hitting big on the middling plays. And, I’ve already told all the best ones!!!
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 2 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, check my podcast below for tomorrow’s NFL Power 5 gambling picks with the Doctor.