After unsuccessfully trying to scrub last week’s CFB DFS post from internet, I’ve decided to rise up with a full heart in another relentless pursuit of DFS happiness. And, my ongoing dream of paying off student loan debt with a GPP take down.
As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
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This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 11 games included in the Saturday afternoon DK contest:
|TA&[email protected]CLEM 3:30PM ET|||||17|||||64|
|[email protected]OSU 12:00PM ET|||||16.5|||||53.5|
|[email protected]PUR 12:00PM ET|||||7|||||55.5|
|NEB@COL 3:30PM ET|||||4|||||64|
|[email protected]MIZZ 12:00PM ET|||||14|||||62.5|
|[email protected]UCLA 4:15PM ET|||||7.5|||||45|
|[email protected]IOWA 12:00PM ET|||||20|||||49.5|
|[email protected]UMD 12:00PM ET|||||2|||||57.5|
|[email protected]MICH 12:00PM ET|||||22|||||47.5|
|IL@UCONN 3:30PM ET|||||21|||||59.5|
|[email protected]GT 2:00PM ET|||||6|||||61.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like a Trevor Lawrence–Travis Entienne stack. What I will do is point out that rostering the sizzling combo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,317.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. So, let’s stop wasting time and pretend like everything I wrote last week never happened. Onto all the CFB DFS glory that awaits for Week 2!
Reggie Corbin | RB | Illinois $4,400
It’s scary to think how bad Uconn might be to have Vegas peg them as 20 point dogs at home to Lovie Smith’s beard. And, that’s without co-starting tailback Mike Epstein who was lost for the season due to a Week 1 injury.
Enter Corbin, who already has shown an ability to put up big numbers last year when getting the volume. He should be in for a field day against a Huskie defense that just allowed Wagner Seahawk running backs to average above eight yards per carry.
Yes, that isn’t a joke. Wagner has a football team. And, their running game gave Uconn some trouble.
If healthy enough to start, Corbin is an automatic play for all my lineups. If not, Dre Brown and Ra’Von Bonner would share the work, with a potential hot hand scenario in play. For what it’s worth, Brown was the one to see the more meaningful snaps in the first half last week.
Maurice Washington | RB | Nebraska $3,700
Another intriguing running back situation comes in one of the highest projected scoring games of the slate. In the Husker’s opener against South Alabama, junior Dedrick Mills got the nod as the feature back.
The good news: He was fed 15 times and converted two scores. The bad news: Mills averaged under three yards per carry.
That swayed the coaching staff to turn to Washington exclusively in the second half. Some wacky game flow and turnovers didn’t help, but the sophomore proved much more effective, averaging over six yards per tote and added a 13 yard grab.
If the coaches stick with Washington, and treat him like they did Mills with a feature opportunity, this selection could yield huge returns in what should be a high scoring affair. Speaking of that, JD Spielman and Alex Fontenot are excellent candidates to outperform their prices in this game as well.
Zander Horvath | RB | Purdue $4,800
Yet another Little Ten running back that is in line for a work horse role! The sophomore wasn’t spectacular in Week 1, but 87 yards on 22 touches isn’t easy to come by at these prices. And, the 323 yards Georgia notched on the ground last week suggests Vandy’s run defense isn’t exactly the strength of the team either.
Coming off a brutal loss, Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is already talking about them not being aggressive enough. With Rondale Moore as one of the top offensive players in the country, their offense has proven to be explosive, averaging over 30 points per game. Really, closer to 40 points against average opponents.
Last season, the Commodore defense ranked 61st in points allowed per game, and 99th in yards allowed per game. According to my trusty Lindy’s preview, that defense lost six of it’s top eight performers in terms of snaps played. Yikes.
Tack on working in three new offensive line starters, and new quarterback growing pains, Saturday’s home opener feels like an explosion of Chernobyl like proportions for the Boilermaker offense. Horvath hits pay dirt and I wager on Purdue 13 different ways! ….
Georgia Tech Offense
Besides my horrible gambling calls from last week, another reason to shame me is that I really thought head coach Geoff Collins was moving straight to a spread passing attack from the get go. That, did not turn out to be the case at all.
Dual threat quarterback Tobias Oliver started the game, and recorded 20 rushes. It wasn’t exclusively option packages, but remained heavy on designed quarterback runs.
The big takeaway is that, for now, this is a major area of uncertainty week to week. Which, is the kryptonite to speculative decision making. But, in DFS, these situations are the ones you want to capitalize on the most.
The high risk circumstances will likely drive low ownership percentages. This, in turn, creates a supply of points that contest participants will not be accruing. If Vegas is correct, and G-Tech approaches 34 points, there is potentially a wealth of CFB DFS goodness to gobble up here.
In other words, if you can stomach the uncertainty, you could be the CFB DFS hero that eats up all those low owned points, differentiating your lineups in big contests. Besides Oliver, Jordan Mason seems to have a solidified role no matter what the Yellow Jackets are going to do. And, both are dirt cheap.
I know I’ll be sneaking Oliver in at least a couple of lineups myself. As the above picture indicates, he went off in this game last year in the first real meaningful playing time of his college career.
Oh yea, and South Florida blows! Tech by double digits!!!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Unlike the uncertainty in Atlanta, Army football ain’t changin shit anytime soon. The triple wish/flex/five running back option attack is alive and well in West Point.
Led by senior quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr., the Army Black Knights will be taking their talents to Ann Arbor as 22 point underdogs. Gee, I wonder, what happened the last time they were early season road dogs against a highly ranked opponent?
They gave the Sooners all they could handle, almost pulling off the upset. Now, I’m not calling for Army to shock the world against the loathsome Wolverines. But, I am saying that Hopkins is basically a feature running back with some passing stats upside.
And, they aren’t going to stop running no matter how much they get behind. They couldn’t if they wanted to. They simply don’t know how. Even if they did, Hopkins gets all those stats too.
At a slightly higher price, former Wolverine turned Illinois starter, Brandon Peters isn’t looking so bad either.
Oh my God!? Could it be?? The CFB DFS Illinois stack!!! What a time to be alive….
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
The savings generated from the running back selections can only mean one thing for my lineups: Wide receiver is gonna be covered in more chalk than this guy…
I don’t think I could respect myself without Rondale Moore in every lineup. I actually think he’s under priced. Hey you, Justyn Ross and Laviska Shenault Jr….
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 2 day slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, listen to my podcast below with the Doctor for College and Pro gambling picks.