It isn’t a true Saturday night until it’s a CFB DFS Saturday night! Ahead, I break down all the significant nuggets you will need to be aware of for the entire slate. And, move toward approving official, common sense CFB DFS policy that works for everyone.
As always, I will be posting my DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
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Here are the Vegas odds (favorites in bold) for the 7 games included in the Saturday night DK contest:
|UT@RICE 8:00PM ET|||||32|||||56|
|OU@UCLA 8:00PM ET|||||23.5|||||72|
|CLEM@SYR 7:30PM ET|||||27.5|||||64.5|
|TCU@PUR 7:30PM ET|||||2|||||53|
|[email protected]UW 7:30PM ET|||||21.5|||||58.5|
|[email protected]UV 7:30PM ET|||||7.5|||||56|
|UF@UK 7:00PM ET|||||9|||||47.5|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Sam Ehlinger and Jalen Hurts. What I will do is point out that rostering the pricey quarterback duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,450.
This is the price range I will focus on each week. That said, let’s get to what we all came here for–the targets!!!
David Bell | WR | Purdue $4,500
In one of the more intriguing games of the slate that isn’t a projected snoozer blowout, this 4-star freshman will look to continue building on the immediate impact he’s had on the high powered Boilermaker offense. Last week, he followed up hauling in a 49 yard touchdown grab in their opener, with a slick 4-82 line in a win against Vanderbilt.
On Saturday night, it has been speculated that Horn Frog star cornerback Jeff Gladney may be paying extra special attention to Purdue phenom Rondale Moore, contrary to what head coach Gary Patterson has said. Either way, Moore commands so much attention that opportunities for guys like Bell and tight end Brycen Hopkins will only increase as the season moves along.
Additionally, I was able to watch almost the entire Purdue/Vanderbilt game last week. One thing was abundantly clear. If head coach Jeff Brohm senses his offensive line is overmatched, the run game will treated worse than Daniel Plainview’s son…
Or his priest….
God, I like that movie way too much. After the 47th time watching it, I’ve concluded it’s a comedy more than anything. And, an outstanding one at that.
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Anyway, I remember Brohm’s adjustment all too well because my Zander Horvath play for that slate really hurt my lineups, and feelings. Make sure to check back on quarterback Elijah Sindelar’s status before pulling the trigger on any Boilermaker Saturday night.
Staying in West Lafayette for the moment, it’s tough to know what to expect from TCU with only one game under their belt against a garbage outfit. But, that won’t stop me from trying. After all, being right in the more difficult spots is how you win in CFB DFS, and life itself!
So, let’s give the Horn Frogs a whirl. For running backs, seniors Sewo Olonilua and Darius Anderson lead the way. Olonilua is a between the tackles guy, while Anderson is the home run hitter that can make house calls from anywhere on the field.
My guess is that both will be heavily involved Saturday night in an effort to keep the aforementioned potent Purdue offense on the sideline. At very reasonable prices, there is value here. As the true game breaker of the two, Anderson will likely be the more popular play.
At receiver, Jalen Reagor is the obvious stud of the group, who will be looking to one up Moore as top receiver of the night. After him, TreVontae Hights was the one that popped in the opener with an 8-108 line. But, the most intriguing one of the group is the forgotten man in the DK pricing model.
In a limited role as a freshman, Taye Barber finished with the second most catches on the team, and could always be counted on to avoid the dreaded doughnut hole in your lineups. He was getting rave reviews all off-season before being slowed down by a mystery injury. If he suits up, his minimum price will be a temptation difficult for my thumbs to resist.
Virginia Running Backs
Through their first two contests, the Florida St. “defense” has allowed opposing running backs to pile up 377 yards, averaging over five yards per carry in the process. Of that total, 146 came from the powerhouse UL Monroe Warhawks last week.
According to the google, dead man walking Willie Taggart is addressing the issue by bringing in new coaches as fixers midseason, and constant shuffling of the depth chart. Translation: Right here, right now–they’re fucked.
Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has already indicated that sophomore Wayne Taulapapa will return from a one game absence. He is the likely candidate to start, and get a majority of the workload.
The other option is freshman, Mike Hollins. He impressed in his Cavalier debut last week. Both tailbacks should be salivating over the paper mache they get to run through under the lights in Charlottesville. But, at their not so cheap prices, this may be just a situation to monitor for this week.
Demetric Felton | RB/WR | UCLA $4,900
What the hell happened to my pal Joshua Kelley?! Just like that, my CFB DFS hero from last season finds himself in what seemingly now is a full blown time share.
Even worse for Kelley, I think Felton is the better fake football play for this week. As a huge underdog, the game script will call for Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson to be passing early and often. Since he’s pretty awful at that, dump offs and shorter completions to Felton are likely going to be the preference.
That’s been the trend so far, as Felton leads the team in catches and receiving yards through their first two games. Also, maybe this is the spot for my Devin Asiasi prediction from Week 1 to finally be right.
Oklahoma Running Backs
But, about those Sooners, going back to last season, this situation continues to elude the CFB DFS world. Their penchant for blowouts and more of a quarterback/receiver friendly scheme, has made their high powered attack simultaneously enticing and frustrating when it comes to playing their tailbacks. Especially, when you consider that they aren’t back-breaking for the budget.
They’re on schedule for another reckoning Saturday night in Los Angeles, where things are going so well that they’ve offered free admission to the game. For what it’s worth, Trey Sermon was the clear starter in OU’s first two games with Kennedy Brooks appearing to have the minority stake of this time share.
Assuming this doesn’t get completely out of hand too early, I’d go with Sermon. Third stringer Rhamondre Stevenson is on notice as junk time hero of the week, as well.
Cedric Byrd II | WR | Hawaii $5,800
In their four blowout losses last year, this senior wideout still maintained a rock solid floor. After his ridiculous 14 catch, four touchdown game in their opener against Arizona, Byrd continued his high-level production with a 7-61 line in a win over Oregon St.
I think it’s notable that he followed up a big performance with a single game catch total that ties the third highest of his career. Without that 14 catch explosion, it would have been his second best career game in terms of catches.
So, what does it mean for Saturday night? I believe it means Byrd is the safest play at receiver on the board. And, one of the top price/ceiling/floor combos of the slate.
After last season’s transition, the Rainbow Warriors have a clear identity. Head coach Nick Rolovich’s run & shoot system has been humming in their first two games (both wins) against weaker Pac-12 opponents.
They’re kind of like the bizarro Army Black Nights discussed last week. No matter what happens against Washington, they’re going to throw it all over the place in a high risk/high reward manner.
Early signs suggest substantial increased statistical output from Byrd, and the rest of the offense, this season. I think Hawaii is a live dog Saturday night, and Byrd continues what will be a monster senior year.
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Similar to the day slate, it would not be advisable to pivot off the top three quarterbacks here. However, if such circumstances presented themselves, the Huskies Jacob Eason has to be the most logical choice in the bunch.
He’s quarterbacking an offense that projects to put up roughly 40 points Saturday night. No other quarterback is this price range has his matchup advantages, and they all pretty much blow anyway.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Ya know who doesn’t? Rondale Moore. It is close to being official CFB DFS policy to never leave him out of any lineup for any slate. Seriously, I think he should probably cost 10 grand.
For stacks, I’d choose the Sooners over Clemson and Texas. But, no strong opinion either way. All the big favorites should eat Saturday night. It’ll just be a matter of who scores the touchdowns.
Good luck for the CFB DFS Week 3 night slate! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed. Also, check my podcast below now starting with weekly CFB DFS recaps!
⚡️🎧 EPISODE 5 🎤⚡️— Swipe Right Sportz (@SportsPodHookup) September 13, 2019
2:50 — CFB DFS Week 2 Recap @FakePigskin
10:30 — Week 3 College 🏈 ATS Pks with the Doctor 👨⚕️
30:35 — Week 2 NFL ATS Pks and all kinds of juicy nuggets for EVERY game on the slate
1:08 — 💥 POWER 5 💥 👇https://t.co/fWBlMjocBp