PGA DFS US Open Preview

If you need PGA DFS to distract you from trying to figure out whether or not the Warriors are/aren’t better with Kevin Durant, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course, there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the US Open (USO) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links  Pebble Beach, CA  Par 72  Yardage 7,075

Pebble Beach Golf Links (PB) is widely regarded as some of the best scenery in the world, in, or outside of golf. Most of the credit goes to the coastline views of the Monterey Peninsula and Carmel Bay that even famous writer and California Native, John Steinbeck would struggle to find the appropriate diction for expressing the aesthetics. But don’t let the beautiful terrain and shorter yardage fool you. With certain features and the right conditions, PB can be an absolutely punishing experience for anyone who is not on their game.

The combination of wind on this linksy style layout, and ultra small greens can wreak havoc on players that aren’t in form. From my vast experience playing Tiger Woods PGA 2004 on PlayStation, I can tell you first hand that this is one hundred percent accurate.

Speaking of the Big Cat, he is the only player to finish under par combined in the last two US Opens hosted at PB. Most of that nugget is thanks to 2000, which is referred to by many as the greatest major performance ever, when Woods won the USO by 15 strokes, the largest margin ever in a major.

Besides the Tiger anomaly, no golfer finished either the 2000, or 2010 Pebble Beach USOs under par. Considering that with the USGA’s penchant for getting cute with their course conditions, I would not expect too much of a departure from past scores. Here are the past five USO winners and their scores:

Year	Player	Score
2018	Brooks Koepka	1
2017	Brooks Koepka	-16
2016	Dustin Johnson	-4
2015	Jordan Spieth	-5
2014	Martin Kaymer	-9

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Ball Striking (BS)
2. Strokes gained: Approach-the-green (SG: A)

Pebble Beach is a course setup for shot makers. There is not much of a reward for attempting to overpower the course with elite distance off the tee. Instead, players will look to score by having clean looks from the fairway, in order to be as precise as possible shooting into Pebble’s aforementioned notoriously small greens.

Tap this link to view a chart showing past winners’ performances in strokes gained statistics. It clearly shows each winner since 2011 all having one thing in common: they threw darts.

I think driving should still be incorporated into key metrics this week, and not just emphasize approach stats because this ain’t no pro-am. For major championship conditions, the rough will be grown in to the point where errant tee shots will be penalized more so than in February. Keeping it clean off the tee will matter.

Ball striking provides the best snapshot of how sharp any individual’s all-around game is when putting is removed. That, in addition to strokes gained: approach-the-green, are the best stats to target for the season’s third major.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. European tour players are in a separate table. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	BS	SG: A
Keegan Bradley	7000	5.5	9	2
Tiger Woods	10700	7.5	2	13
Brooks Koepka	11600	8	5	11
Rory McIlroy	10500	8	11	5
Matt Kuchar	8500	8	7	9
Hideki Matsuyama	8800	10	14	6
Justin Thomas	9300	11	15	7
Paul Casey	8300	11.5	4	19
Gary Woodland	8000	12.5	1	24
Henrik Stenson	7600	19	37	1
Patrick Cantlay	10000	21	32	10
Lucas Glover	7000	23.5	20	27
Adam Scott	8600	24.5	34	15
Xander Schauffele	8700	25.5	18	33
Chez Reavie	6900	28	30	26
Jim Furyk	7200	29	44	14
Dustin Johnson	11300	29.5	43	16
Tommy Fleetwood	8900	35.5	30	41
Webb Simpson	7700	37	54	20
Rickie Fowler	9500	37.5	29	46
Sepp Straka	6300	43.5	50	37
Marc Leishman	7800	44.5	71	18
Jon Rahm	9200	46.5	21	72
Keith Mitchell	7100	47.5	24	71
Charles Howell III	6900	53.5	2	105
Alex Prugh	6500	54.5	10	99
Bryson DeChambeau	8100	55.5	49	62
Byeong Hun An	6900	55.5	76	35
Nate Lashley	6500	55.5	86	25
Justin Rose	9700	57.5	93	22
Kevin Na	7700	61	80	42
Sergio Garcia	7800	62	121	3
Jhonattan Vegas	6800	62	28	96
Ian Poulter	7500	64.5	22	107
Billy Horschel	7200	69.5	71	68
Danny Willett	6800	71.5	112	31
Tony Finau	8400	75	97	53
Jason Dufner	6900	76.5	68	85
Abraham Ancer	7000	77.5	40	115
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6800	78.5	65	92
J.B. Holmes	7300	80.5	92	69
Tyrrell Hatton	7200	81.5	46	117
Luke List	7100	84	93	75
Jason Day	9100	85	25	145
Roberto Castro	6600	86	136	36
Bubba Watson	7600	86.5	51	122
Aaron Wise	6900	86.5	16	157
Carlos Ortiz	6100	91	36	146
Lucas Bjerregaard	6800	92	65	119
Brian Stuard	6600	92	133	51
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7300	97.5	128	67
Daniel Berger	7100	97.5	86	109
Chesson Hadley	6600	98.5	142	55
Zach Johnson	7000	99.5	165	34
Cameron Smith	7300	104	159	49
Matthew Fitzpatrick	7400	104.5	148	61
Branden Grace	7200	104.5	122	87
Kyle Stanley	6800	105.5	103	108
Rory Sabbatini	7700	106.5	101	112
Kevin Kisner	7400	106.5	102	111
Phil Mickelson	8200	108	119	97
Haotong Li	7200	109.5	125	94
Matt Jones	6700	111.5	82	141
Tom Hoge	6500	112.5	175	50
Francesco Molinari	9000	113	124	102
Louis Oosthuizen	7900	113	59	167
Graeme McDowell	7300	115.5	130	101
C.T. Pan	7100	123	143	103
Jimmy Walker	7000	123.5	157	90
Martin Kaymer	7400	125	188	62
Matt Wallace	7600	135.5	178	93
Alex Noren	7100	144.5	98	191
Patton Kizzire	6700	144.5	159	130
Brandt Snedeker	7500	145.5	174	117
Sam Saunders	6400	146	176	116
Justin Harding	6900	151.5	95	208
Patrick Reed	7900	153	158	148
Si Woo Kim	7100	154.5	162	147
Nick Taylor	6500	157.5	163	152
Ernie Els	6500	158.5	153	164
Shane Lowry	7500	161.5	181	142
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	6800	163.5	139	188
Jordan Spieth	10300	166.5	189	144
Julián Etulain	6400	168.5	194	143
Ollie Schniederjans	6700	173.5	166	181
Aaron Baddeley	6700	176	192	160
Anirban Lahiri	6600	183.5	201	166
Scottie Scheffler SQ	6700	0	0	0
Collin Morikawa SQ	6700	0	0	0
Viktor Hovland Won 2018 Am	6700	0	0	0
Luke Donald SQ	6600	0	0	0
David Toms PY Sr USO Win	6600	0	0	0
Luke Guthrie SQ	6600	0	0	0
Brandon Wu (a) SQ	6500	0	0	0
Zac Blair SQ	6500	0	0	0
Shugo Imahira SQ Japan	6500	0	0	0
Brendon Todd SQ	6400	0	0	0
Stewart Hagestad (a) SQ	6400	0	0	0
Mike Weir SQ	6300	0	0	0
Michael Thorbjornsen (a) Won Am Champ	6300	0	0	0
Jovan Rebula (a) Won EU Am Champ	6300	0	0	0
Andreas Halvorsen SQ	6300	0	0	0
Chun An Yu (a) SQ	6300	0	0	0
Billy Hurley SQ	6300	0	0	0
Joseph Bramlett SQ	6300	0	0	0
Daniel Hillier (a)	6300	0	0	0
Chandler Eaton (a)	6200	0	0	0
Nick Hardy SQ	6200	0	0	0
Nick Hardy SQ	6200	0	0	0
Ryan Sullivan SQ	6200	0	0	0
Brett Drewitt SQ	6200	0	0	0
Mikumu Horikawa SQ Japan	6200	0	0	0
Cameron Young (a) SQ	6200	0	0	0
Callum Tarren SQ	6200	0	0	0
Devon Bling (a) RU 2018 Am	6200	0	0	0
Matt Parziale (a) SQ	6100	0	0	0
Hayden Shieh SQ	6100	0	0	0
Spencer Tibbits (a) SQ	6100	0	0	0
Matthew Naumec SQ	6100	0	0	0
Eric Dietrich SQ	6100	0	0	0
Noah Norton (a) SQ	6100	0	0	0
Kodai Ichihara SQ Japan	6100	0	0	0
Rhys Enoch SQ EU	6100	0	0	0
Chip McDaniel SQ	6100	0	0	0
Connor Arendell SQ	6000	0	0	0
Andy Pope SQ	6000	0	0	0
Austin Eckroat (a) SQ	6000	0	0	0
Merrick Bremner SQ EU	6000	0	0	0
Brian Davis SQ	6000	0	0	0
Rob Oppenheim SQ	6000	0	0	0
Mito Pereira SQ	6000	0	0	0
Luis Gagne (a) SQ	6000	0	0	0
Kevin O'Connell (a) Won 2018 Mid Am	6000	0	0	0
Richard H. Lee SQ	6000	0	0	0

Player	Salary	Composite Rank	SG: T-G	SG: Approach
FOX , Ryan	6800	26.5	13	40
Thomas Pieters	7000	27.5	21	34
OLESEN , Thorbjørn	6800	49.5	75	24
PEPPERELL , Eddie	7000	67.5	59	76
ARNAUS , Adri	6400	79.5	31	128
SORDET , Clément	6200	80.5	65	96
PARATORE , Renato	6400	104.5	104	105
BURMESTER , Dean	6500	117.5	84	151
KINHULT , Marcus	6600	136.5	161	112
WALTERS , Justin	6400	136.5	144	129
VAN ROOYEN , Erik	6900	137.5	109	166
HORSFIELD , Sam	6700	141	81	201
SLATTERY , Lee	6300	154	167	141
FRASER , Marcus	6400	161.5	188	135
PAVON , Matthieu	6400	184.5	177	192

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

SQ = player qualified through their sectional tournament

(a) = Amateur

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 8.4k–18 players)

Some guy named Eldrick Woods appears to be solid in the key metrics, course history, and past major championship performance departments. Additionally, he qualifies as a bona fide bounce back candidate. At least in the sense of making cuts in majors.

With Brooks and DJ’s prices being sky-high, Tiger and Patrick Cantlay offer similar value while not blowing up the rest of the cap. That point, especially in DK majors cannot be stated enough.

The deep, talent rich fields for major championships causes DK’s pricing to become extremely soft. Saving a few hundred in this range will help you load up on players in the next range that maintain adequate floor/ceiling combinations.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

Before we get there, I do want to reaffirm my man crush on Cantlay. I’ve been slobbering all over him since last season. His win at the Memorial two weeks ago wasn’t just your run of the mill tournament.

Outside the majors, and the PLAYERS Championship, it’s arguably the most prestigious and, when considering the fields it draws, toughest tournament on tour. And, he won it by starting the final day four shots back, going on to fire a 64, winning by two strokes.

It was the definition of breakthrough win for someone who hasn’t quite been able to get over the hump in bigger events. When you rope in the fact that it came on the heels of his career best major finish, T-3 at last month’s PGA, this feels a lot like the Francesco Molinari wave of last summer.

Sweet Spot (8.3k to 7k–42 players)

After the top-tier, Matt Kuchar and Hideki Mastuyama are my favorite key stat/price combinations. Before missing last year’s cut at Shinnecock Hills, Kuchar hadn’t missed a USO cut since 2009. I like the FedEx points leader to continue what has already been a highly productive year at PB by making the weekend with a puncher’s chance to capture his elusive first major win.

Matsuyama also profiles as a stellar mid-level floor/ceiling player, with an outside chance to win. He’s made five of six USO cuts, including four top-25s, and two top-10s, one of which was his career best major finish in a tie for runner-up at the 2017 USO. He has yet to miss a weekend in 2019, and already has as many top-10s (4) as he did a year ago, in a not so Hideki-like season.

However, you still need to find guys below the average price to roster in order to afford the more reasonably priced players. That’s where Keegan Bradley, Henrik Stenson, and Gary Woodland come in handy.

All three guys are similar being elite enough fits statistically to keep their weekend hotel reservations, but their flat sticks could be why they end up teeing off in the early groups Sunday. A hot putter from any of these guys would be enough to notch a top-10 finish.

While we’re on the subject of making cuts in USOs, here comes my weekly Jim Furyk PSA. Ahem… The 2019 renaissance man has made 20 of 23 career cuts in USO play, including five in a row, with a T-2 in 2016 at Oakmont.

Paul Casey is another guy that is priced just under the average line with elite key stats that cannot be ignored.

Sneaky Low % Owned (Below 7k ~90 players)

The strongest cases in this range would be made for Chez Reavie, Byeong Hun An, and Jason Dufner. All have solid key metrics in my table, plenty of major experience, and varying degrees of success in big events. Especially in the history of Dufner, who already has a PGA Championship in his trophy case.

Those are the safer, and likely to be most popular plays in this range. But, as Dr. King Schultz once told Django Freeman, “When you’re in my world, ya gotta get dirty”.

If we’re getting filthy, Sepp Straka jumps out as great statistical fit. The tour rookie from Austria and Nate Lashley have ranked solid on their approach stats this season. Both will be making their major championship debuts. A made cut from either guy would work wonders for your lineups.

Going off the PGA tour, Web.com stud Scottie Scheffler has been one the hottest players this season, and is well on his way to earning his PGA card for next year. He’s made the cut in all three of his PGA events this year, and has gone one for two in USO starts, finishing T-27 in his last time out in 2017. That tells you the big stage won’t overwhelm him.

Similar to Aaron Baddeley, Scheffler possesses great wand, which will definitely help on what is sure to be tricky greens at Pebble. Another reason to like Baddeley in this range is, quietly, tons of relative success in majors.

Since 2003, the Australian has gone 15 of 29 in major starts. He’s successfully cashed checks in his last four majors, two of which were top-25 finishes in USOs, including last year at Shinnecock. He would be my favorite pivot off the bigger names like Dufner here.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

In terms of coming off a missed cut last week, Sergio Garcia was the most notable from the RBC Canadian Open. However, his form is so poor overall at the moment, I would tread lightly when considering the Spaniard for this week. At the very least, he makes for an intriguing contrarian play.

Considering just majors, John Rahm missed the cut at last month’s PGA Championship. He does not strike me as someone who is in the business of missing back-to-back weekends in big events. Ditto for Jim Furyk.

Best Course History Plays

In general, I would not draw much from anyone’s performance from the annual Pro-Am played here in February. First off, they play three separate courses over the first three days in that event, two of which play as some of the easiest on tour.

Additionally, the Pro-Am winner finished an average of 18 strokes under par over the last four years. As previously stated above, Eldrick was the only player to finish under par in each of the last two USOs hosted at Pebble Beach. So while course familiarity can’t hurt, I would not weigh anyone’s Pro-Am performances much here, good or bad.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Keegan
2. Kuchar
3. Woodland
4. Hideki

Good luck at Pebble Beach! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!

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