PGA DFS Travelers Championship Preview

If you need PGA DFS to pass the time before the reality television NBA off-season kicks off, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course, there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the Travelers Championship (TC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: TPC River Highlands  Cromwell, CT  Par 70  Yardage 6,840

The tour switches coasts to the annual US Open hangover event in the quaint northeast community of Cromwell, Connecticut. According to the internet, the small town of roughly 14,000 was named after some sort of war ship going back to revolutionary war times called Oliver Cromwell, the “Lord Protector of the Commonwealth of England”.

Additionally, it is rumored a non-white human being has not been seen there going back to pre-Columbus “discovering” America days. Accordingly, the PGA Tour demographic is a great fit in town at TPC River Highlands (RH), and has been every year since 1984. In fact, I’ve uncovered actual footage of the gallery around the 18th green last year…

Here are the last five TC winners and their scores:

2018	Bubba Watson	-17
2017	Jordan Spieth	-12
2016	Russell Knox	-14
2015	Bubba Watson	-16
2014	Kevin Streelman	-15

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. Ball Striking (BS)
2. Strokes gained: Approach-the-green (SG: A)

Similar to Pebble Beach last week, RH plays as one of the shorter courses on tour. Unlike last week, this is not a major championship. And, RH has much larger greens as compared to the acute target practice pin areas that Pebble provides.

In other words, I want to emphasize the same two stats as last week, with a slight tendency to lean in favor of bombers. Without major championship rough, big hitters Bubba Watson (won here three times) and JB Holmes (last year’s runner-up) can elect to overpower the course sans much of the risk presented last week.

At the same time, the shorter distance allows the more precision reliant players to factor in, as past winners Jordan Spieth, Russell Knox, and Kevin Streelman reflect above. In general, I would approach this event statistically as a much, much easier version of Pebble last week.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, an average of each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name	Salary	Composite Rank	BS	SG: A
Brooks Koepka	11800	3.5	3	4
Keegan Bradley	7700	6.5	11	2
Emiliano Grillo	7900	7	8	6
Justin Thomas	9800	9	10	8
Paul Casey	9500	11.5	4	19
Jason Kokrak	8300	14.5	18	11
Troy Merritt	7100	22	15	29
Russell Knox	7700	26	29	23
Kevin Streelman	8200	26.5	22	31
Lucas Glover	7500	26.5	23	30
Chez Reavie	8400	28	32	24
Patrick Cantlay	11300	30.5	45	16
Tommy Fleetwood	9300	34.5	34	35
Sepp Straka	7100	38	39	37
Hank Lebioda	6700	41.5	24	59
Marc Leishman	9100	47.5	73	22
Adam Schenk	6600	49	52	46
Ryan Moore	7800	50	75	25
Alex Prugh	6800	53	9	97
Sungjae Im	7800	55.5	33	78
Byeong Hun An	7800	56	73	39
Bryson DeChambeau	9200	56.5	65	48
Trey Mullinax	6800	57.5	79	36
Sam Ryder	6800	59.5	62	57
Sung Kang	7300	60.5	65	56
Nick Watney	7200	60.5	39	82
Joaquin Niemann	7500	61	84	38
Joel Dahmen	7200	61.5	42	81
Cameron Davis	6300	64	64	64
Russell Henley	7500	64.5	55	74
Kevin Tway	7400	69	69	69
J.J. Spaun	6800	72.5	59	86
Cameron Tringale	6700	73.5	107	40
Dylan Frittelli	7100	76.5	75	78
Tony Finau	9000	79	99	59
J.B. Holmes	7300	80.5	95	66
Josh Teater	6500	81.5	100	63
Jason Day	10000	82	28	136
Bud Cauley	7600	82	105	59
Bubba Watson	8900	83	37	129
Shawn Stefani	6500	83	113	53
Adam Svensson	6000	85	129	41
Charley Hoffman	8100	86.5	145	28
Abraham Ancer	7400	86.5	42	131
Kyle Stanley	7300	88.5	94	83
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	7200	91	88	94
Sebastián Muñoz	7200	91	72	110
Jim Knous	6300	92	110	74
Chesson Hadley	7400	94.5	140	49
Andrew Landry	6700	94.5	81	108
Adam Hadwin	7600	96.5	54	139
Kevin Kisner	7700	97	96	98
Carlos Ortiz	6400	97	44	150
Anders Albertson	6100	97	132	62
Cameron Champ	6800	97.5	35	160
Danny Lee	7500	98.5	125	72
Brian Stuard	7000	98.5	140	57
Max Homa	7200	99.5	148	51
Harold Varner III	7100	99.5	79	120
Brendan Steele	6700	99.5	13	186
Kramer Hickok	6500	99.5	48	151
Andrew Putnam	7600	100.5	146	55
Scott Stallings	6800	101.5	161	42
Louis Oosthuizen	8800	102	56	148
Daniel Berger	8000	102.5	91	114
Hudson Swafford	6200	103	119	87
Brice Garnett	6500	107	47	167
Martin Laird	7000	108.5	75	142
Tyler Duncan	6400	108.5	61	156
Phil Mickelson	8700	109.5	127	92
Adam Long	6400	110.5	109	112
Francesco Molinari	10300	111	126	96
Austin Cook	6900	111	92	130
Ben Silverman	6500	111	103	119
Tom Hoge	6500	111.5	178	45
Roger Sloan	6200	111.5	107	116
Vaughn Taylor	6700	112	135	89
Ryan Armour	6500	112	89	135
J.T. Poston	7000	113.5	143	84
Bronson Burgoon	6200	116.5	84	149
C.T. Pan	7600	118	134	102
Chase Wright	6000	118	58	178
Fabián Gómez	6100	121.5	59	184
Cameron Smith	7200	122	176	68
Peter Malnati	6900	122.5	198	47
Hunter Mahan	6300	123	50	196
Matt Jones	6900	124	93	155
Scott Brown	6800	124	114	134
Brandon Harkins	6200	125	122	128
Jonas Blixt	6800	127	148	106
Harris English	7000	128	82	174
Wes Roach	6600	134	83	185
Patton Kizzire	6400	136.5	156	117
Sam Saunders	6100	139	167	111
Jim Herman	6000	141.5	120	163
Whee Kim	6100	143	182	104
Seth Reeves	6000	144.5	84	205
Peter Uihlein	7000	146	138	154
Denny McCarthy	6700	147.5	116	179
Patrick Reed	8500	148	157	139
John Chin	6000	148.5	97	200
Chris Thompson	6100	149	161	137
Mackenzie Hughes	7100	150	177	123
Sam Burns	7000	150	131	169
Alex Cejka	6000	150.5	188	113
Brady Schnell	6200	155	158	152
Sangmoon Bae	6600	155.5	136	175
J.J. Henry	6000	155.5	152	159
Nick Taylor	6900	156	168	144
Robert Streb	6600	157	173	141
Beau Hossler	7300	157.5	121	194
Richy Werenski	6300	160	163	157
Ollie Schniederjans	6700	163.5	159	168
Wyndham Clark	6400	164	130	198
Brandt Snedeker	8600	164.5	184	145
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	7100	164.5	138	191
Roberto Díaz	6300	165.5	148	183
Julián Etulain	6200	165.5	193	138
Jordan Spieth	10700	166	189	143
Si Woo Kim	7400	166	166	166
Satoshi Kodaira	6600	167.5	165	170
Brian Gay	6700	171	154	188
Chris Stroud	6400	173.5	201	146
Kelly Kraft	6500	176.5	200	153
Brian Harman	7400	178.5	164	193
Ryan Blaum	6300	181.5	186	177
Anirban Lahiri	6900	182	199	165
Aaron Baddeley	7000	182.5	192	173
Stephan Jaeger	6900	183.5	186	181
Scott Langley	6400	183.5	178	189
Freddie Jacobson	6000	185.5	207	164
Kyle Jones	6000	186	173	199
Michael Kim	6100	190.5	206	175
José de Jesús Rodríguez	6300	191.5	196	187
Joey Garber	6300	194	184	204
Rod Pampling	6000	195	195	195
Martin Trainer	6100	198	190	206
Cody Gribble	6100	198	204	192
Seamus Power	6600	200	197	203
Curtis Luck	6600	203	204	202
Viktor Hovland	7900	0	0	0
Matthew Wolff	7300	0	0	0
Collin Morikawa	6900	0	0	0
Padraig Harrington	6600	0	0	0
Justin Suh	6400	0	0	0
Morgan Hoffmann	6300	0	0	0
Zack Sucher	6200	0	0	0
Nicholas Lindheim	6200	0	0	0
Boo Weekley	6200	0	0	0
Brandon Hagy	6100	0	0	0
Chris Tallman	6100	0	0	0
Colt Knost	6000	0	0	0

*player without data have not played in enough PGA events for stats to qualify

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 8.4k–17 players)

Paul Casey was a favorite of mine last week, and I’ll continue to back him at the TC. He checks just about every box you could ask for.

Form: fresh off a final round 67 at the US Open to finish T-21–check. Key stats: elite ball striking rank all year and a top 20 approach player–check. Event history: four starts, four weekends all finishing inside the top 20 including three top-5s with two runner ups–CHECK!!!

All that without the hefty price tag of Koepka or my beloved Cantlay makes the former Sun Devil my top choice in this range.

Sweet Spot (8.3k to 7k–49 players)

But it’s here where there is the need to identify the right selections to free up some cap space for Casey. My favorite plays that mimic Casey’s qualities in this range are Ryan Moore and Keegan Bradley.

Moore is the definition of a River Highlands course horse. In 11 career starts, the UNLV alum has cashed nine checks, notched five top-10s that include a couple of runner-up finishes.

Additionally, he is coming off a missed cut here last season. That’s good news to me considering the only time that happened before, he finished T-4 the following year. In a thinner field following a major, this feels like a great spot for Moore to collect a top-10 finish.

For the ladder, Bradley ruined my real, and fantasy life last week. I’m running him back for similar reasons that apply to Moore. The shallow field should help Bradley rebound from last week’s missed cut, where he has not missed a weekend in eight career TC starts.

Going a bit lower and less chalky, my key stats continue to target Sepp Straka. The tour rookie hasn’t disappointed with three straight cashed checks, including a rock solid T-28 at last week’s US Open.

Sneaky Low % Owned (Below 7k ~86 players)

Sticking with that theme, fellow rookie Hank Lebioda has been fantastic with ball striking, ranking 24th on tour this season. And, he’s been consistently making cuts, going 11 of 16 on the season, including six of his last seven regular tour events.

Before the RBC Canadian open, I tried to make the case for Zach Sucher. Then, he inconveniently became Zach Sucher. However, because he will likely have an extremely low ownership percentage, I like him as sneaky contrarian play.

Same goes for Anirban Lahiri. His ball striking stats are awful, but with solid putting he’s still managed to cash checks at most of the non-marquee events.

Also, the India native has finished T-17, and T-9 the last two years at this event. So maybe he really enjoys the hospitality in Cromwell? Who knows. Regardless, he’s a solid contrarian dart throw.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Keegan–See above. He would not do this to me twice, right? It might get personal if he does. Possibly a social media attack…
• Tony Finau–You’d have to go back to February of 2016 to find the last time this guy missed three cuts in a row. I doubt he will let that happen here.
• Bubba–I can’t guarantee he’ll contend, but a missed weekend here would be a shock coming off a flame out at the USO.
• Si Woo Kim–Should be a nice spot to continue his bi-polar existence on tour. Finished inside the top-30 in his two starts here.

Best Course History Plays

• Bubba again–I think three wins qualifies as good event history.
• Charlie Hoffman–After missing the weekend in his first TC appearance in 2007, C-Hoff has made it eight straight weekends here, with three top-10s.
• Daniel Berger–Three career TC starts over the last three years, cashed checks in every one, including two top-5s.
• J.J. Henry–Yea I said it. The elder statesman, and former 2006 TC winner has missed just two cuts in 16 career starts here. If you’re looking for a dart throw just to make the weekend, why not Henry? Think Boo Weekley in the RBC Heritage.
• Brendan Steele–Speaking of dart throws, gone six for eight in weekends made here. All six finishes were T-25 or higher. Oh and… Bomber alert!!!

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Casey
2. Moore
3. Keegan
4. Grillo

Good luck in Connecticut! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!

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