PGA DFS RBC Heritage Preview

If you need PGA DFS to remedy your unbelievable Masters GOT hangover, I post DK targets each week on Fake Pigskin. My goal every week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. The way DK prices their fields out, I almost never will play anyone 10k or above. With something as random as golf performances week to week, they simply do not justify the investment in my mind.

Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

Last season, I consistently laid out the theory that rostering players five figures and above just was not worth it week to week. Scroll toward the end on my results page to see how I used the Masters results as evidence to support this. The point is, golf performances week to week are very erratic. Generally, I would suggest the good ole diversification strategy.

Going a step further, unlike most other DFS games that have positions, golf is just picking six guys that are doing the same exact thing in a given week. That said, probably more than any other DFS sport I’ve played, leaving 1-2k on the table is perfectly fine. Do not feel like you HAVE to spend your entire cap.

Throughout this season I will post more thorough analyses of why both approaches make DFS golf a bit different from football, hoops, and baseball. And how ridiculously futile it makes it when trying to win. All that in mind, let’s take a look at the RBC Heritage (RBCH) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Harbour Town Golf Links  Hilton Head, SC  Par 71  Yardage 7,100

Screw your green jacket! This week’s winner is presented with this ridiculous plaid one to go along with a statue in the likeness of Sir William Innes. According to google, he was the captain of the Society of Golfers at Blackheath, England in 1778.

He’s somewhat credited for bringing the game to the area so the locals really ham it up during this tournament. They even have this ass clown rolling around the course all weekend dressed up as the Sir Willie mascot. Basically, he’s Hilton Head’s version of the Master’s Bulter Cabin interview.

Anyway, the RBCH has been an official tour event since 1969, and been the annual golf follow-up to the Masters since 1983. Hilton Head’s Harbour Town GL (HTGL) has played host every time.

Here are the past winners and their scores from the last five years.

2018	Satoshi Kodaira	-12
2017	Wesley Bryan	-13
2016	Branden Grace	-9
2015	Jim Furyk	-18
2014	Matt Kuchar	-11

 

Keys to Success

Unlike Augusta’s bomber friendly layout last week, HTGL will be much more about accuracy off the tee as opposed to distance. If you watched the Masters, you probably witnessed numerous times where guys went into the pine straw, tree riddled areas way off the fairway, but still had reasonable lies to scramble for pars.

That will not be the case this week. Here, the course is designed to heavily penalize errant tee shots, forcing players to play to the confines of the course layout.

The biggest factor will be course management. You will likely see guys like Dustin Johnson leaving the driver in his bag for longer driving irons and hybrids off the tee that are easier to control.

Another key for positive results at the RBCH will be performance on approach shots. The greens here are notoriously small, and typically have favorable landing areas that are premium for scoring opportunities. Players that have ranked high this year in strokes gained: tee-to-green, strokes gained approach, and GIR percentages should all be strongly considered as targets.

Because of the smaller greens, a stat also to be considered should be proximity to the hole on approach shots. Since this is a par 71 with 11 total par 4s, I also like to look at par 4 scoring. But that could be applied to just about any tournament. To clarify, my top five stats to weigh this week in order are:

1. SG: Tee-to-green
2. SG: Approach-the-green
3. Proximity to the hole on approach
4. GIR
5. Par 4 scoring

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking of all five key stats for this week.

It’s a quick way to view players from a strictly statistical view, regardless of price point. For example, based on his composite rank, Corey Conners looks like the most mispriced player this week.

Name	Salary	SG: T-G	SG: Approach	Proximity to hole	GIR	P4 Scoring	Composite Rank
Jim Furyk	9400	19	10	6	12	7	54
Matt Kuchar	10000	11	7	18	1	21	58
Corey Conners	7300	7	8	2	4	41	62
Lucas Glover	7800	13	19	22	10	4	68
Jason Kokrak	8800	12	4	60	29	7	112
Patrick Cantlay	9700	10	24	64	30	1	129
Ryan Palmer	7000	77	34	23	6	7	147
Marc Leishman	8000	37	20	23	38	34	152
Chez Reavie	6800	68	23	13	23	34	161
Russell Knox	7700	30	14	4	49	70	167
Dustin Johnson	11600	5	11	138	22	7	183
Webb Simpson	9300	28	21	71	58	7	185
D.J. Trahan	6300	21	44	84	15	21	185
Sungjae Im	8400	20	37	71	39	31	198
Abraham Ancer	7600	45	79	20	65	7	216
Ryan Moore	8100	29	22	27	61	86	225
Xander Schauffele	10900	15	14	173	19	7	228
Emiliano Grillo	7400	31	12	55	16	129	243
Chesson Hadley	7100	82	18	3	99	54	256
Kevin Kisner	9100	64	40	57	67	31	259
Luke List	7700	17	43	114	45	70	289
Scott Piercy	6700	75	122	60	18	21	296
Harold Varner III	6300	51	81	90	48	34	304
Charles Howell III	8700	33	90	175	3	3	304
Byeong Hun An	8200	2	25	186	57	34	304
Ian Poulter	8600	35	100	121	10	41	307
Jonathan Byrd	6800	110	67	51	83	1	312
Tommy Fleetwood	9200	6	38	175	56	41	316
Michael Thompson	6500	65	52	42	100	70	329
Adam Schenk	7100	70	39	98	78	54	339
Scott Stallings	6800	61	26	90	76	86	339
Keith Mitchell	7300	22	46	160	44	70	342
Russell Henley	7300	74	98	42	88	54	356
Ryan Armour	6600	99	125	11	80	41	356
Danny Lee	7100	110	61	55	32	104	362
Troy Merritt	6200	81	142	39	37	70	369
Cameron Smith	7900	60	36	90	150	34	370
Danny Willett	6600	66	16	48	51	196	377
Si Woo Kim	9000	46	75	133	121	7	382
Brian Stuard	6700	86	66	33	163	41	389
Kevin Streelman	7200	54	114	64	79	86	397
Davis Love III	6100	106	27	12	53	204	402
Bryson DeChambeau	10400	33	74	131	110	54	402
Trey Mullinax	7100	59	73	114	58	104	408
Sam Ryder	6700	90	68	124	108	41	431
Rafa Cabrera Bello	7600	58	77	138	141	21	435
Joel Dahmen	6900	83	104	94	82	86	449
Adam Long	6000	100	56	18	113	162	449
Andrew Putnam	7200	158	108	124	26	41	457
Charley Hoffman	7800	73	60	42	115	172	462
Ernie Els	6300	103	145	114	70	34	466
J.J. Spaun	7000	127	78	197	28	41	471
Zach Johnson	7500	49	35	57	171	162	474
Vaughn Taylor	6400	146	102	10	169	54	481
Bud Cauley	7300	57	71	109	143	104	484
Chris Kirk	6800	72	55	109	102	146	484
Cameron Champ	6500	123	119	165	9	70	486
Graeme McDowell	7500	131	123	130	86	21	491
Scott Brown	6200	91	143	109	95	54	492
Nick Watney	6800	124	131	48	60	146	509
Whee Kim	6600	196	72	8	115	129	520
Nick Taylor	6900	107	120	127	121	54	529
Tom Hoge	6200	137	45	51	153	146	532
Andrew Landry	6900	129	117	57	85	146	534
Jason Dufner	6500	141	182	23	24	172	542
J.T. Poston	6800	108	103	138	147	54	550
Adam Hadwin	7400	136	172	51	63	129	551
Aaron Baddeley	7600	89	126	165	151	21	552
Martin Laird	7000	135	139	152	42	86	554
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8500	32	51	138	192	146	559
Sam Saunders	6500	116	86	98	156	104	560
Jonas Blixt	7100	125	107	84	177	70	563
Hudson Swafford	6600	133	82	84	105	162	566
Austin Cook	6600	157	93	114	110	104	578
Daniel Berger	7400	118	162	66	165	70	581
Roger Sloan	6100	130	121	42	173	129	595
Francesco Molinari	11300	93	137	127	187	54	598
Brice Garnett	6800	159	179	146	47	70	601
Branden Grace	8300	80	106	190	54	187	617
Matt Wallace	7300	36	83	184	211	104	618
Brandon Harkins	6300	141	97	82	137	162	619
Richy Werenski	6300	155	149	105	126	86	621
Ted Potter, Jr.	6400	190	114	84	115	129	632
Billy Horschel	8900	150	116	197	66	104	633
Peter Malnati	6600	126	101	127	200	86	640
Tyler Duncan	6200	175	165	23	94	187	644
Ben Silverman	6100	153	164	94	132	104	647
Brandt Snedeker	7500	84	134	170	176	86	650
Beau Hossler	7200	143	178	206	74	54	655
Patton Kizzire	6700	169	128	143	148	70	658
Jim Herman	6200	166	135	32	145	187	665
C.T. Pan	6900	152	177	133	136	70	668
Rory Sabbatini	6400	96	159	131	140	146	672
Alex Cejka	6400	145	110	27	196	206	684
Wyndham Clark	6600	119	195	192	126	54	686
Stewart Cink	6400	189	168	184	72	86	699
Brian Gay	6700	174	190	98	174	70	706
Harris English	6000	161	156	170	138	86	711
Denny McCarthy	6400	134	187	156	134	104	715
Kevin Na	6900	104	96	178	149	196	723
Chris Stroud	6200	184	132	150	177	86	729
Jordan Spieth	9500	172	111	143	166	146	738
Kelly Kraft	7000	153	88	153	175	172	741
Martin Kaymer	7000	113	91	146	185	212	747
Sam Burns	6700	168	174	138	159	129	768
Ryan Blaum	6100	140	147	156	188	162	793
Mackenzie Hughes	6900	128	160	160	184	172	804
Peter Uihlein	6700	194	200	173	115	129	811
Michael Kim	6000	210	144	80	198	206	838
Anirban Lahiri	6000	188	181	178	203	104	854
Bill Haas	6900	115	167	181	209	202	874
Charl Schwartzel	7100	203	87	195	199	196	880
Brian Harman	7000	144	209	160	213	162	888
Ollie Schniederjans	7400	167	196	150	204	196	913
Alex Noren	7000	187	188	206	131	206	918
Satoshi Kodaira	6400	204	161	178	190	187	920
Cody Gribble	6000	205	184	146	210	214	959
Martin Trainer	6300	165	205	210	196	187	963
D.A. Points	6500	208	170	181	201	213	973
Rod Pampling	6000	201	211	213	212	196	1033
Seamus Power	6100	207	212	204	214	209	1046
Justin Harding*	7900	0	0	0	0	0	0
Luke Donald*	7200	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eddie Pepperell*	7200	0	0	0	0	0	0
John Augenstein*	6600	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shane Lowry*	6500	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colt Knost*	6500	0	0	0	0	0	0
Morgan Hoffmann*	6400	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ray Franz*	6300	0	0	0	0	0	0
Boo Weekley*	6100	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mark Anderson*	6100	0	0	0	0	0	0
K.J. Choi*	6000	0	0	0	0	0	0

*players without data have not played enough measured rounds in PGA Tour events

On a more philosophical level, I think it makes sense here to target players who have solid familiarity with this event. Last week was one of the most high-profile events in golf’s season that warrants tons of adrenaline and emotions.

Bottom line, they’re men not machines. I would give a slight bump this week to guys that have regularly scheduled this event over the past few years.

Category Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–11 players)

On that note, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar are my favorite plays in this range. Both have tons of event experience including a win here in the past five years.

Not to mention, both are playing arguably their best golf in years, and are phenomenal fits stylistically and statistically for HTGL.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–43 players)

This is the range I tend to focus on most, which I believe offers the best price/floor/upside combinations on a week to week basis. As mentioned, Corey Conners is the clear standout stats wise for this range.

My case against him would be the inexperience (one appearance last year, missed the cut), and the inevitable come down of winning his first tour event two weeks ago, followed by his first Masters appearance. Also, the form and course fit will likely result in high ownership percentages at his price. So he could make for a shrewd fade if this happens to be the come down week.

Russell Knox and Cameron Smith will also be gracing my lineups with their presence this week. The young Aussie Smith wasn’t great last week at the Masters, but continued a solid 2019 campaign, making his 11th cut in 12 starts. From a numbers standpoint, he ranks solid in three key stats, and has finished T-32 or higher in all three RBCH career appearances.

The Scotsman Knox comes with all the attributes as Smith, but a little better. His rankings on key stats are rock solid across the board. Which makes it no coincidence that he has cashed checks in each of his five career RBCH appearances, including two top-10s.

Speaking of Scotsman, I am wayyyyy too excited for this Robert the Bruce movie. After all, most of my GPP strategy can be summed up in this one GIF…

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–78 players)

Ryan Palmer and Chez Reavie do not have great track records here, but their key stats this year are trending toward changing that. Another grizzled vet, D.J. Trahan is entering official truther status for me this week.

His stats are wayyyy up across the board. Either he’s figured something out, or it’s an anomaly bound to correct itself. In this price range, he makes as much sense to throw a dart on as anyone.

If you want to get extremely filthy, two-time RBCH winner Boo Weekley has never missed a cut here in 11 career appearances. Just sayin….

Best Bounce Back Candidates

• Brandt Snedeker–MC at Masters. Very good track record here.
• Luke List–MC at Valero Texas Open two weeks ago. Last year’s T-3 could have easily been his first career win. Should be eager to get back out there.

Best Course History Plays

• Luke Donald–Last season I wrote that there should be a Netflix documentary made about this mystical history for Donald in this event. He went on to an MC so he’ll want to rebound.
• Jim Furyk
• Matt Kuchar
• Ian Poulter–Perfect 8/8 here including last season’s career best T-7 finish.
• Kevin Na–Last season’s MC was just his third in 13 RBCH appearances, including four finishes inside the top 10.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

1. Kuchar
2. Knox
3. Furyk
4. Smith

Good luck at Hilton Head! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome.