Below are my PGA Season Results through last week. The first table is sleeper selections. When I say sleepers I’m referring to players priced in the low 7k, or below range that have under told stories/aren’t obvious names in the golf world. I usually pick two to three per tournament. I consider making a cut with these selections a victory.
| 2018 Sleeper Selections |
Missed Cut |
Made Cut |
Top 25s |
Top 10s |
Winners |
| AT&T PEBBLE BEACH |
3 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| GENESIS OPEN |
0 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| HONDA CLASSIC |
4 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| AP INVITATIONAL |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| HOUSTON OPEN |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| RBC HERITAGE |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| VALERO TEXAS OPEN |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| BYRON NELSON |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| ST JUDE CLASSIC |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| US OPEN |
0 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| GREENBRIER CLASSIC |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| JOHN DEERE CLASSIC |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| RBC CANADIAN OPEN |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| WGC BRIDGESTONE |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| PGA CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| NORTHERN TRUST |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| TOTALS |
30 |
42 |
16 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Before the Valspar Championship, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock. These selections are players that I believe have top 25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. Here’s the results so far this season.
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| 2018 Core Selections |
Missed Cut |
Made Cut |
Top 25s |
Top 10s |
Winners |
| VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
| AP INVITATIONAL |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| HOUSTON OPEN |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| MASTERS |
0 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
| RBC HERITAGE |
0 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| VALERO TEXAS OPEN |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
| WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
| PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| BYRON NELSON |
0 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| FORT WORTH |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| MEMORIAL |
0 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| ST JUDE CLASSIC |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| US OPEN |
0 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
| TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL |
0 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
| GREENBRIER CLASSIC |
2 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| JOHN DEERE CLASSIC |
0 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
| RBC CANADIAN OPEN |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| WGC BRIDGESTONE |
- |
- |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| PGA CHAMPIONSHIP |
0 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP |
1 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| NORTHERN TRUST |
0 |
6 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
| TOTALS |
20 |
78 |
41 |
22 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
DraftKings ROI Translation
With the way I prefer to play it’s been very hit and miss to this point. The majors, particularly the U.S. Open, is keeping my season afloat. I’ll need one more big week to finish in the black for the year.
| Tournament |
Entered |
Winnings |
ROI |
| Northern Trust |
173 |
496.30 |
187% |
| Wyndham Championship |
170 |
0 |
-- |
| PGA Championship |
161 |
30 |
-81% |
| WGC Bridgestone |
99 |
18 |
-83% |
| RBC Canadian Open |
162 |
0 |
-- |
| Open Championship |
165.5 |
186 |
12% |
| John Deere Classic |
99 |
0 |
-- |
| Greenbrier |
108 |
0 |
-- |
| Quicken Loans |
157 |
74 |
-53% |
| Travelers Championship |
137 |
0 |
-- |
| US Open |
187 |
913.5 |
388% |
| St. Jude Classic |
35 |
0 |
-- |
| Memorial |
45 |
98.05 |
118% |
| Fort Worth |
36 |
0 |
-- |
| AT&T Byron Nelson |
65 |
24 |
-63% |
| The PLAYERS |
50 |
0 |
-- |
| Wells Fargo |
75 |
0 |
-- |
| Valero Texas Open |
72 |
0 |
-- |
| RBC Heritage |
84 |
0 |
-- |
| Masters |
132 |
52 |
-61% |
| Houston Open |
37 |
15 |
-59% |
| WGC Match Play |
70 |
0 |
-- |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational |
172 |
0 |
-- |
| Valspar Championship |
147 |
159 |
8% |
| WGC Mexico |
97 |
8 |
-92% |
| Honda Classic |
159 |
0 |
-- |
| Genesis Open |
104 |
266.8 |
157% |
| AT&T Pebble Beach |
20 |
7 |
-65% |
| Season |
3,018.50 |
2,347.65 |
-22% |
|
|
|
|
| Majors |
645.50 |
1,181.5 |
83% |
General DraftKings Approach
In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend first and foremost. The way DK prices their fields out, I almost never will play anyone 10k or above. With something as random as golf performances week-week, they simply do not justify the investment in my mind. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,500-$9,000 range considering some course history, but mostly recent form. And, I always look for prime bounce back candidates who are playing well but happened to miss the cut the prior week. As an example of real life results stacking up against DK pricing take a look at the Masters results:
| Masters Results |
DK $ |
| 1 |
Patrick Reed |
-15 |
$ 7,700 |
| 2 |
Rickie Fowler |
-14 |
$ 9,000 |
| 3 |
|
-13 |
$ 10,400 |
| 4 |
Jon Rahm |
|
$ 9,300 |
| T5 |
Cameron Smith |
-9 |
$ 6,900 |
| T5 |
|
-9 |
$ 8,700 |
| T5 |
Henrik Stenson |
-9 |
$ 7,800 |
| T5 |
Rory McIlroy |
-9 |
$ 9,900 |
| 9 |
Marc Leishman |
-8 |
$ 8,200 |
| T10 |
Tony Finau |
-7 |
$ 7,400 |
| T10 |
Dustin Johnson |
-7 |
$ 11,400 |
| T12 |
Charley Hoffman |
-6 |
$ 7,100 |
| T12 |
|
-6 |
$ 7,900 |
| T12 |
Justin Rose |
-6 |
$ 9,200 |
| T15 |
Paul Casey |
-5 |
$ 8,800 |
| T15 |
|
-5 |
$ 7,100 |
| T17 |
Justin Thomas |
-4 |
$ 10,800 |
| T17 |
Tommy Fleetwood |
-4 |
$ 8,500 |
| 19 |
Hideki Matsuyama |
-3 |
$ 8,400 |
| T20 |
Webb Simpson |
-2 |
$ 7,300 |
| T20 |
|
-2 |
$ 7,000 |
| T20 |
Jimmy Walker |
-2 |
$ 6,800 |
| T20 |
Jason Day |
-2 |
$ 9,800 |
| T24 |
Branden Grace |
-1 |
$ 7,400 |
| T24 |
|
-1 |
$ 7,200 |
| T24 |
Si Woo Kim |
-1 |
$ 6,700 |
Take aways:
- Top 10 average price: $8,791
- Could have easily selected a top lineup without anyone over $9,000
As I’ve stated all season, and, as the results continue to prove out, you don’t need to spend on guys 10k and above to win in DK contests. Especially, in big events when DK’s pricing is extremely soft. Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter @realBobbyAdcock and tell me I’m an idiot!
