Risk with Reward Thursday Game

By John Bush 

 Risk with Reward Thursday Game

I wished to give my take on the Thursday PHI vs ATL

Risk with Reward Thursday Games Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

See my previous articles for week 1!

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2018/09/05/ppr-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-1/ ‎

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2018/09/05/non-ppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-1/ ‎

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Week 1 Risk Levels By Team 

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 Thursday PHI vs ATL

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 45 to 48 points) 

  • PHI 23  vs  ATL 22

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • ATL has to face an overall Strong Defense than AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from PHI Defense

  • PHI contends with an overall Above Average Defense than AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from ATL Defense

  • PHI and ATL both have a higher number of High-Risk Players tonight. 63% vs 80% of Ranked Players that are a High and Mid risk!

  • PHI has 63% Risky players vs 80% from ATL. Advantage PHI

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Risk with Reward Thursday Game Slide91

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The PHI Eagles are expected to win but my rankings give suspect to that. They will contend against the ATL defense. That defense is easiest on the QB at 41%. That may allow the win for Foles. Given the preseason he needs a good game here! 

The RB with Ajayi faces a 57% DAP. Not so hard but the high risk of Ajayi and my 37 ranking would seem to nullify that.

Ertz faces into a 56% TE DAP and he has shown to be able to perform well. DFS tandem of Foles and Ertz! Play him as needed.  Expect 1 to 2 TDs from him.

Aghlor and Wallace go up into a 58% WR DAP. That is doable if Foles can connect. I see Aghlor at a nice 70.3 and low risk he gets a TD plus nice catches. Wallace at 56 ranking will be hit or miss with a long bomb TD. 

4 TDs possible mainly from TE and WRs. 

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Risk with Reward Thursday Game Slide1

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ATL faces a tough Def as judged by last year’s data. I have Ryan at 50% ranking and mid risk. He fights into a delightful 16% WR DAP and can win the game by passing to RBs/TEs or WRs. 

The RBs however face a tough 95% DAP and will have to pass catch to score. 1 TD expected. Freeman will get some yards on the ground by pass-catching should enable him to have earned by mid risk 76 ranking. I see Coleman as high risk and he may get some passing yards only.

Hopper the TE gets a 62 TE DAP and could collect 5 catches or so. 

The main action is from J Jones. I have him at 97 ranked vs weak 16 WR DAP. Expect 100 plus TD or 2! Ryan and he can win this game! Sanu and Ridley are ranked in the 50s. and they are mid and high-risk players respectively.  They might collect catches and be a surprise vs the weak DAP. Flex players only. 

I expect 4 TDs and a very close game. Any mistake can flip the script for that team. Should a nice game with some points for all.  

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