By John Bush

FYI  Bush and Cherney’s Fantasy Football Text has been updated on Kindle (8/3/18)

 

 Winning your Fantasy Football Draft 8/3/18 Edition

 

 

Professor’s PPR Rankings

PPR Rankings must include contextual information. This report adds that information.

Position and Risk Landscape

The next two figure present the draft from my rankings. If my ranking were ADP this is the landscape map. I highlight each position’s block of 12 players by the arrows about the placeholder player symbol of a blue circle with an orange border.

This is my view of the risk levels of the players drafted. High risk begins 132 draft pick. In high risk, one must decide safety vs ceiling floor aspects of players in the 11th rounds and further.

In Best Ball, I lean to pick high weekly scoring WRs that can occasionally pop a 2TD game.  For example, a Mike Wallace type that can score 2 TDs and then disappears.

---

PPR Rankings Professor’s Style

List of Columns

• Player’s
• Team
• Bye Week
• Position
• FSP Ranking (High to Low 100 to 0 Scale Green to Red)
• Risk (High Mid Low). The probability of Achieving the ranking proposed
• Skew Number ( Negative Skew suggests the FSP Ranking is near the Ceiling. Positive Skew means the FSP ranking is closer to the players’ seasonal floor)

The best player is a low risk, high ranked in FSP and positive skew. For Example, in DST, JAC is such a choice. 

---

DST

---

KICKER

---

Quarterback 

---

Running Backs

---

Tight Ends

---

Wide Receivers

---

PPR Rankings In Team Context. 

Use to decide the positional hierarchy.  

---

FSP Team Averages 2018 Predicted Team Strength

Tops: NE PHI MIN ATL WAS LAR NO and GB

Bottoms: BUF, NYJ, ARI, TB, DAL, SEA, BAL, and DEN

---

Running Back Team Strength Table and Graph

TOPs: NO, ATL, TEN, WAS, CIN, CAR, MIN, and NE

Bottoms: OAK, IND, KC, NYG, SF, TB, and BUF

---

Wide Receivers Team Strength Table and Graph

Tops: KC, DET, LAR, PIT, MIN, ATL, and GB

Bottoms: BUF, CIN, ARI, NYJ, CAR, DAL, and SEA

---

Run-Pass Team Balance Table and Graph

I present the raw ratio as well as the scaled to league average.

TOPs in Rushing vs Passing: CIN CAR, NO, ARI, BUF, TEN and DAL (Pick RBs here)

TOPS in Passing vs Rushing: KC, OAK, DET, PIT, LAR, NYG, and SF (Focus on WRs)

---

Public PPR Rankings

These tables present the Public’s Views of Players. It is always important to consider the public value (ADP based). The wisdom of the crowd is not to be ignored. You must beat the crowd for victory. Find the weakness! 

---

DST

---

Kicker

---

Quarterbacks

---

Running Backs

---

Tight Ends

---

Wide Receivers

---

ADP Positional Landscape.

You must understand the expected flow of your drafts.

• Where can you expect TEs and QBs to start to be drafted?
• How long you wait for a DST? 
• Where is the beginning of the RBs and WRs levels (by 12 player blocks)? 

---

• 2nd Level WRs Mid 3rd
• 2nd Level RBs Mid 2nd Round. 
• You can wait for a round to still collect a 2nd level WR!
• First 3 TEs gone by end of 3rd 
• First 2 QBs 3rd/4th rounds.  

---

• 3rd WRs Early 5th Round and 4th Level WRs in early round 8
• 3rd RBs Mid 5th Round and 4th RBs late Round 8. 
• Still 1st level QBs and TEs at the end of 8th round. 

---

• 5th WRs Round 11
• 2nd TEs end round 10
• 5th RBs start at end of round 12 
• 2nd QBs mid round 9. If you want a top ADP QB grab before round 9! 

---

• 6th Level WRs at round 14
• 6th level Rbs round 16
• 3rd level TEs start in round 16
• 3rd level QBs mid round 14 

---

My Rankings vs the Public Table and DIFF Metric Graphs

These tables present the FSP and Public ADP rankings both Raw and Scaled to Average along with a DIFF metric. 

The DIFF metric highlights those players which I am higher on (Green Positive Numbers) vs those I am lower on (Red Negative Numbers).  The WaterFall Graphs is a Plot of the DIFF numbers. 

---

DST

---

Kickers

---

QuarterBacks

---

Running Backs

---

Tight Ends

---

Wide Receivers

---

Draft Pick Analysis

Some Drafts allow picking draft positions. I present the 1st to 12th positions with the raw Public ADP Average and Scaled Metric. 

The 8th Draft pick is the tops along with 11th and 12th. Worst pick positions are 4th, 5th, and 6th

---

PPR Draft Round vs Raw Public Rankings Average and Scaled Avg Metric. 

Use the table and graph to get a sense of this year’s PPR drafts. I do note a plateau area of 7th to 12 rounds. That is usual and might suggest deeper bargains there.

---

Draft Rounds vs Positional Avg Rankings Table and Graph

Note the 25th drop Rounds. (where the value has dropped by 25%)

• DST 10th to beginning 14th round (Top 25% team DSTs)
• Kickers 12th to 13th only
• QBs 3rd to beginning 10th round
• RB 1st to beginning 9th round
• TE 2nd to 9th round
• WRs 1st to the beginning of the 9th round. 

Plan your drafts with these draft rounds as major landmarks! 

Related Posts

• 
  Monkey Knife Fight Picks: Travelers Championship
• 
  PGA DFS Travelers Championship Targets
• 
  Key Analysis FFPC ADPs Part 3-TEAMs