By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Game

I wished to give my take on the NO vs ATL Thursday Game

Risk and Reward-Thursday Game Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

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Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

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Figure 3 and 4. Week 14 Risk Levels By Team 

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 Thursday

NO vs ATL

Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

• Predicted Total Game Points (near 52 points) 

• NO 27 VS ATL 25

• 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

• NO has to face an overall tougher than AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from ATL Defense

• ATL contends with an overall tougher than AVERAGE DAPS Allowed from NO Defense

• NO and ATL both have low numbers of High-Risk Players. ATL 24% vs 19% of Ranked Players that are high risk! 

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This is an interesting game because the DAPs suggest a battle of two tough defenses! Usually, that implies a lower scoring game. The projections suggest the offenses rise above the Defenses and a scoring festival occurs! It’s a Thursday Game!

NO

Brees has been ok in away games. The NO team has been rushing more 60% ish vs passing 40% ish in away games!

Brees thus should get 2 to 3 scores via the pass vs a -9.3 overall DAP! I still have him as a high risk because of being an away game, ATL D, and NO rushing bias! Brees is high risk 86.

The NO WRs face off vs a -4.6 WR DAP and will collect 2 scores maybe three scores! Thomas and Ginn are low risk 95 and 76 ranked!

The TEs battle a -2.3 TE DAP! Hill is low risk and 48. He has a check-down shot in the red zone to score. Will catch a few only!

The main thrust of the NO team is the RBs of Ingram and Kamara who are the current Itchy and Scratchy in the NFL. They irritate all defenses with the thunder and lightning approach! Expect 2 to 3 scores going against a -2.1 RB DAP.  Kamara is ranked at 100 and Ingram is 96 and both a low risk! Game Key! They will wear down the ATL team and can run the score up if the game gets out of hand!

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ATL

This team has been balanced at home in terms of passing and rushing! Ryan fights against a -9.3 DAP (minus 1.5 scores). He scores 2 scores! He is a 63 low risk ranked.

Julio is a low risk 97 and Sanu is at 78 low risk! Both can score! Not expecting a blow up for either however vs a -2.5 WR DAP. Julio gets his yards and a score. Sanu gets PPR catches and a score!

Hooper has had his days but vs a -2.3 TE DAP suggest a few catches for your PPR league! Ranked at 72 mid risk!

Finally, the ATL team will be using their RBs less than the NO team but Freeman and Coleman contend into a -1.7 RB DAP. They should have an average type of game. They have more risk as the Team’s usage is not as high as the NO! Freeman us 88 mid risk and Coleman a mid risk 70!

As I see it the game is close till late when NO gets the go-ahead for the upset win!

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