Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12

By John Bush

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 12 report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.


Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

  • Predicted Total Game Points

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide1


Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 3Slide23


Figure 3/4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)


BAL has more High-Risk Players Going than HOU Tonight



Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12 Monday Night

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12 Slide20


BAL welcomes the HOU D giving a +8.8 DAP (add a score or more) to the average. BAL is predicted to score 14 points ish more than HOU. Flacco is a high risk 30 ranked even going against a +4.3 QB DAP. He gets 3 scores!

The BAL WRs get a sweet +9.2 WR DAP and will bring home the scoring! Maclin is a low risk 80 and Wallace is a mid risk 45. They should both score!

Watson as the TE vs a +2.4 TE DAP can score and collect grabs and yards. I played him where I could this week!  Good Schedule moving forward!

The HOU D is the toughest at the RB position and is yielding a -7.5 RB DAP. Seems to go against Collins tonight ranked mid risk at 67. He will have to step up to score. Woodhead as a pass catcher should be the main threat and can get it going tonight. He is a high risk 60!

FYI, Tucker, the K may do well because of the tough RB Defense!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12 BAL



Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12 Monday Night


Savage the HOU QB is low-risk rank 0! My worst QB of this week! He can score 1 or 2X. He sees a -6.4 DAP and -3 QB DAP! Not impossible for him but tough!

His WRs see a -6 WR DAP and Hopkins will be challenged. I have him as a mid risk 93! Play him but I think a score is the ceiling. B Ellington a PPR guy might get some grabs etc at high risk 64.

The TE of CJ gets a shot to score vs a +2.7 TE DAP. Low risk 40 ranked TE.

Miller the RB should be the HOU show tonight vs a -0.5 RB DAP. I rank him at 88 low risk. Play him for 100 plus a score or two in here!

Monday Night Risk Reward Week 12 HOU

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