By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 10

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 10 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 10  report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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1. Predicted Total Game Points
2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3/4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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 NE has more High-Risk Players going this week vs DEN

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NE vs DEN

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NE

Brady and Co. are favored by 2 TDs. Conventional Wisdom suggests NE can overcome the -9.9 DAP and -1.9 QB DAP to score!

The DAP data suggest the Brady is going into a minus 1.5 TD situation! Brady thus will step up to get it done! I have him at low risk 93! 3 scores possible.

The NE WRs are the game keys. They must battle a -7 WR DAP. Cooks is mid risk 90, the others are high risk. Amendola is the second man up with Hogan out. He is ranked at 66! Is Dorsett viable tonight?

Gronk also needs to get 2X scores vs a +2.8 TE DAP (Denver’s D Weakness) Expect a solid Gronk type of game! DFS Play!

The mystery RBs are at it again tonight. Whose your RB? Its a pick 4! They face off into a -5.3 RB DAP. (Minus 1 score vs average). White seems to be the choice at low risk 73, Lewis and Gillislee mid risk at 53 and 28! The mystery RB is Burkhead who might surprise at a high risk 47! Hard to figure this crew! They must keep the DEN D honest for Brady to pass!

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DEN

DEN loses because the QB is not up to speed! I have Osweiler at high risk 26! He gets a good game to fit into vs a +14.4 DAP and +4.6 QB DAP. Those DAPS add 2 scores to the average. 3 scores possible. This team will make it closer than thought.

The WRs go against a +7.5 WR DAP (Add a score) They get the 3 scores. Thomas and Sanders will be viable this week! Low risk 93 and 83! Play then both in DFS tournaments!

DEN TEs battle a +1.3 (Average game ish) Derby has had should action this season and I rank him at mid risk 58! He might score! Certainly, a check-down PPR play for the BYE week!

Finally, the 3 RBBC gets a shot into a +2.7 RB DAP. They could score. I like Booker as an ascending player over CJ and I have stashed him! Tonight CJ get the first chance at 57 Mid Risk and Booker is high risk 50. Charles is high risk 40! Not sure how Charles fits in here? Clearly too many RBs to feed and they might still spread the points to much for any good usage in Fantasy!

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