Risk and Reward-Thursday Night 11/9/17

By John Bush

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition

I wished to give my take on the SEA vs ARI Game

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.


Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.



Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide23


Figure 3 and 4. Week 7 Risk Levels By Team 

CHI, BUF, SF, and NYG have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

LAR, TEN and SEA have the low numbers of Low-Risk Players this week!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Slide2




Figure 5 Thursday Night


Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 43 points) BUF 25 vs NYJ 18 (6 TDs?)

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • SEA has an overall Below Average in Points Allowed (Defensive Game) while the ARI have a Above Average Level of Points Allowed

  • ARI also have plenty of High-Risk players to add to the mix! The SEA team has the third lowest level of High-Risk Players! 


Thursday Night SEA vs ARI



Sea is predicted to win by 11 points (TD plus FG). That is based on the DAPS and ARI sad state of a QB/Passing game! Wilson gets an extra score tonight (+5.8 DAP) and faces a +2.7 QB DAP. He will have a nice time if scoring 3 to 4 scores! He is ranked mid risk 100!

The SEA WR crew has been strong and will collect an extra score vs +5.8 ARI WR DAP! Baldwin is ranked at low risk 97 while Richardson mid risk (injury) 71 ans Lockett 68 low risk. Baldwin should collect 2 scores and they leave one to two for the other WRs. Nice plays! Watch for Richardson’s practices and if he out move Lockett up the board!

The SEA RBs are a mystery. Who plays tonight? They are all ranked at 50 and below mid to high risk! They should get an average game vs -0.2 RB DAP! The average game though has been poor for fantasy! Nothing to see here unless SEA get enough ahead and they use to run clock down! Risky!

The TE Graham has been doing well and goes up against a -2 ARI TE DAP.! He is at low risk 94 and scores tonight. On paper seems like a “cake walk” for SEA!



Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Thursday Night SEA vs ARI



The optimist in Vegas have this ARi team at 2 scores ish. Stanton is facing a -7 DAP and -3.5 QB DAP. (One less score via passing! ) He is the ARI game key and if he can pass and score they have a shot to keep up with SEA! Stanton is mid risk 7 ranked! He must get lively to keep the SEA D from Stacking the BOX vs AP!

The ARI WRs has traded targets and grabs around. Fitz figure to be the SEA D focus and is Brown. They face a +1 WR DAP and maybe get a score! Fitz is mid risk 89, Brown Mid risk 55 and the JA Brown and Nelson are at mid risk 30 ish. Caution!

The TEs are weak and face a -0.7 TE DAP. Gersham might get 5 grabs as a check-down panic guy for Stanton!

The ARI hopes rest on AP who rush 37 times last sunday and is asked to pick it up on his shoulders again! He is low risk 78 and goes against a -2.3! Hard to see him score enough to win for ARI. The best is for him to get Stanton the time for lucky pass scoring!

Hard to see ARI winning here!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night ARI

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