Risk_Reward-Thursday Night Week 9

By John Bush

Risk_Reward-Thursday Night Week 9

I wished to give my take on the BUF vs NYJ Game

Risk_Reward-Thursday Night Analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.


Game Script and DAPs

Figure 1 How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1


Figure 2 Short Discussion of Risk 

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team.



Figure 3 and 4. Week 7 Risk Levels By Team 

DAL, NYG, and BUF have the Highest Level of High-Risk Players going this week! 

SEA, NYJ, ATL, IND and TEN have the low numbers of High-Risk Players this week!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide1


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Slide2


Figure 5 Thursday Night


Games Scripts and DAP Analysis

The game script data below shows the following:

  • Predicted Total Game Points (near 43 points) BUF 25 vs NYJ 18 (6 TDs?)

  • 2017 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)

  • BUF has an overall Below Average in Points Allowed (Defensive Game) while the NYJ have a High Level of Points Allowed

  • BUF also have plenty of High-Risk players to add to the mix! The NYJ have the second lowest level of High-Risk Players! 


Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition Thursday NYJ vs BUF



Taylor has an opportunity to crush the NYJ and collect 3 Scoring TDs vs a Nice +13.2 Overall DAP (Plus 2 scores above Team Avg). He individually faces off into a +4.5 QB DAP (An extra TD score than usual).  Taylor can run a score in tonight as well! He is 71 mid risk kinda of QB!

The WR from BUFF with enjoy a +3 WR DAP and that adds a 1/2 TD to the group! Who collects tonight? K BEN is ranked a 64 high risk and may play a few plays hence the risk level. He can score but seems unlikely! J Matt is a mid risk 54 and might score tonight! Jones and Holmes are High and Low Risk with 28 and 11 ranks respectively!

O’Leary the TE faces a nice +5.2 DAP (add a TD). He scores 1X tight with 6 grabs!

McCoy is the game key as usual and is battling a +1.4 RB DAP! He will score 2X! He leads the team tonight to “ground and pound” the NYJ! He is ranked best of the week at low risk 100!



Thursday NYJ vs BUF



The NYJ are the underdogs because the BUF D is below average slightly in DAP of -0.4 DAP.  McCown will clash tonight into a -3 QB DAP. One less TD score than NYJ average. 2 passing scores for him as his ceiling! He is ranked mid-risk 51!

His WRs have been having their mojo working but just does not work on BUF tonight! The face a -0.8 WR DAP. Anderson is 77 low risk and Kearse (more dynamic) is mid risk 65! They should get 2 scores. Kerley is no so far out but a high risk at 38!

ASJ the TE is the game key. He has the best opposing DAP at +2.5 and that leads to a score and grabs! If he can multiple score that can erase the effects of a tough Buf D!

The RBBC has seen Powell as the breakaway RB while Forte a more pass catcher. They both have to contend against the +0.6 DAP. The can score and produce on the ground tonight. Forte is low risk 72 and Powell mid-risk 75. If they can do more than the usual they can balance the positions for a surprise NYJ upset!

I think BUF and NYJ score higher than conventional wisdom near 49. The BUF vs NYJ level of Higher-Risk players also adds to a different game than thought!

It’s a Thursday night, however, but hopefully, fans get a good fantasy game!

Risk and Reward-Thursday Night Edition NYJ

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