By John Bush

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 8

Game Script Overview, Game Script by Predicted Game Totals and Each Game DAPs

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 8 has my Risk and Reward Analysis will include:

• Game Script
• Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
• Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
• My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

Sunday Night Risk Reward Week 8  report has my constructed data charts to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more. I may hit the highlights but will try not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

I like to see the overall points to be scored, then into the positional DAPs and finally to risk and ranks. I let the bargains come to me in DFS. Do not force yourself to play heavily this early.

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Figure 1 Instruction for Reading my Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position Tables. 

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1. Predicted Total Game Points
2. 2016 Seasonal DAPs for Each Team’s Offense to face. (Find the Positional Advantages)
3. Complete Week Thumbnail Overview including Favorite vs Underdog with Overall Defense Against their Opponent (Toughest, Hard, Nice and Very Easy) Deep Red to Dark Green

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Figure 2. A Visual Discussion of My Risk Analysis

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Figure 3/4 Team Player Counts By Risk Levels (Graph and Table)

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 MIN, NYJ, and BUF have most high-risk players this week on teams remaining!

LAC, NO, and ATL are the teams this week with the lowest numbers of high-risk players!

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DET vs PIT

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Note that DET has more Risky Type Players going this week!. A PIT is favored by a TD or so given the offensive firepower that Big Ben commands!

Stafford faces off against a very tough defense this week with a -17 DAP and -3.6 QB DAP. Subtract 2 Scores of so from DET. That places DET in the 2 TDs range at best! I have Stafford at a mid risk 44 because of the Pit D!

The DET WR go to war vs a -6 DAP. 2 Scores at best then. The Jones can get one/two and Tate if he plays. I did not rank him but if he plays he is a high risk near 80 rank! This seems to be a tough game for Tate to do well in!

The TEs vs -1.9 TE DAP. Fells might get a score. He and Ebron at high risk near 30!

Finally, the RBs face off vs -2.3 DAP. They are the game keys!  Abdullah and Riddick are mid-risk and 72 and 62 ranked! They have an opportunity to push the PIT D and if so the passing game could open up! They score 1 TD. Like Riddick as a longshot to score.

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PIT

Big Ben goes to battle tonight with a tougher than average DET D! They have ended the seasons of a few players this year. A physical D! Ben is up against a -1 DAP and -2.3 QB DAP. He gets 3 Scores! I have him at a mid risk 41!

Brown and the WRs form PIT battle a -2.3 DAP and will get an average game! Brown does his usual! JuJu also can contribute to a score! Brown is low risk 99 and JuJu at mid risk 57!

The TEs have been active as PIT likes to use the TE position but they are missing a good TE! James is mid risk 20 and McDonald is at high risk 5! Some grabs only as check-downs! They struggle tonight even with a nice +2.3 TE DAP (DET D weakness). They certainly can score but seems like they have not stepped up this year!

Bell the RB also has a +2 favorable DAP to play into and should get rushing scores and nice yards! I worry about injury against the DET D. I might be stashing Conner in case! Bells is low risk 100!  PIT should win via their Defense and Big Ben getting the passing game rolling!

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